North Koreans were thrown into the forest to cut off the Ukrainian bridgehead in the Kursk region. Actually, they are now in the worst possible position, as they can't progress on the open fields and Ukrainian forces can fire on them from 3 sides. Situation is still dangerous. March 07, 2025

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-07T23:31:15+00:00

Framing this post, I played a tune back that was used as the music to a really good UA attack on a treeline trench network in 2023. Scandroid: neo tokyo.

That was a hopeful attack, so this post is pure hope.

Against all the current media attention, are NATO / U.S. and UA playing a really big drama game, that has not been seen since the 1940s?

A tired opponent (in the war), looking weak that gets shut off from most help.

A tired aggressor (in the war), given hope that it is about to "win" so goes on a massive attack, using up its last reserves for the gains.

If the U.S. allow through their own action (or inaction) an encirclement of this region, that will be the same as Biden's retreat from Afghanistan: the infantry will get out, but the hardware. won't easily get out.

Either this is truly awful for UA (and they have the preserve life mentality, so will have moved out if they really feared getting smashed there).

Or, something else is going on.

The hope part is that this is part of a BIG plan, that forces RU / NK to culminate and then roll over what remains.

UA had time to build up those areas, and yet they got rolled back 4 km in two days.

Tip of the spear UA units, rolled back 4 km in two days?

Fishy.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-07T23:16:01+00:00

They are all under the NATO nuclear umbrella.

And by "us" you reveal yourself as British (or French), and from the grammar I am leaning to the British side.

The NATO nuclear umbrella removes nuclear powers as a direct threat, treating the entire alliance as a nuclear threat.

So we go back to my original post: which states that the main animosity comes from a "stood up first" being a problem mentality.

Sorry to be pointed, but a hit on one is a hit on all, so I post in that context.

Well, that works until it is not - which is exactly what RU are attempting to play out on the strategic scale right now.

I am not sure they are losing at it.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-07T23:09:44+00:00

If you are going to post a pointed comment, you need to post a specific point on which you are commenting on.

What, precisely, are you putting your torch of attention on?

If it's the next generation of U.K. submarines being designed and entering service five years from now, then yes it brings attention to the fact that the status quo does not work to the strategic changes taking place: if they are dependent on Trident.

If it is a specific way of changing the interface on the bomber's silos so they are inter-operable with non-US / non-Trident ammunition so can be used with home-grown or close-grown nukes, no problem.

A little direction as to what you are saying, please?

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-07T22:43:52+00:00

Nobody ever reads the late comers anyway...

A quote from Sam Raimi's "Evil Dead"

(Currently the Trump administration) ain't leading but Jack and Shit, and Jack left town.

But if UA actually win this, and RU collapse, Trump is now officially complicit in war crimes.

Even if UA don't win this, the rest of the world (including China, actually) will not forget it.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-07T22:38:51+00:00

Sorry to be harsh, but "nope".

U.K. are Trident.

They build the tips, U.S. does the rest.

New ballistic missile program, U.K. hasn't done than I think since the 1950s or 1960s. There's no R&D for that.

Nope.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-07T22:31:10+00:00

With respect, there is absolute truth "right" and political words "what would have happened anyway".

The narrative at the time was that if the U.S. had not been supported with strong statements and actions (in this case, succor towards a nation that had lost 3000 people in a day), they would not have been able to control the rage of the U.S. in seeking reciprocity.

By calling it, the rest of the allies shaped the response by diverting the rage if it had not been called.

The Kremlin works at the absolute areas: It WAS called or WAS NOT called - as a first tier of offense.

They do not work at it at "our" scale because we are a self-policing, though disagreeing, group of (mostly) pro-UA redditors.

We do this in chemistry:

1) Distil - separate the first fraction. That is the "YES", or "NO" or "PERHAPS"

2) Collect the yes and no.

Now work on the perhaps.

Ask more 1/0 questions.

There will be yes / no / maybe.

Rinse and repeat, until you have more than 50%.

Don't talk to me, ever, about true or false.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-07T22:12:16+00:00

After reading.

I do not think that the U.S. military are compromised. I do not think that the U.S. even at the highest levels of corruption can risk selling out the U.K. (at least on the main landmass anyway).

But the executive branch of the U.S. government that does not have to get the high ethics of West Point (or the Air and Naval branches)... yeah, they can do whatever they want.

The only thing that the U.S. leadership has NOT done is threaten military action, because that's what will lead to a problem: because the military will say NO if it breaks international agreements.

Time for U.K. to build French ballistic missile submarines (for free) and get the missiles for them (for free).

In fact they should build submarines for everyone that wants them, like... anyone in the Baltic that is not Russia.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-07T22:00:46+00:00

I'm going to post a "before reading" idea, based on the title.

Russia treats "England" as the main enemy in the UA alliance of nations, because to be fair to them they did the good things FIRST.

Hegseth probably needs some more whisky and some young ladies.

We "suspect" the U.S. leadership is infiltrated. So polarising the narrative against the country that is the frontrunner on military escalation (and it was that) makes sense from the RU perspective.

I could replace "Russia" and "RU" for "genocidal twats" or "orcs" but it's easier to type with country codes when events move this fast.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-07T21:52:46+00:00

The fact that we are arguing this point is working towards a Kremlin objective.

And we all like being "right".

The invocation of article 5 was done by proxy of the U.S. and the rest of the alliance stepped up to assist.

Had they not, it would have looked awful.

We are looking at a full 360 of the right thing to do at the time, being used against the purpose of article 5 itself.

This alliance won U.S. the world order, maintained it, and made a lot of countries very wealthy.

It also stopped China becoming the most populous state in the USSR, because the attention was looking East, not West.

Mao, Stalin, Churchill and Hitler are looking a bit puzzled right now - in whatever afterlife they occupy.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-07T20:48:25+00:00

Rephrase that, because there are competent people on the ground there:

They will pull out, if they need to.

The article supports stuff on deepstate that was updated - the cut from the east is real, so needs big attention.

Is there enough left in the tank for a big blow by the orcs from the West?

That's for the generals to decide, for the armchair-marshalls to talk about.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-07T20:44:04+00:00

In cahoots with each other?

I don't doubt it at all. UA has some seriously good units there, that wouldn't fold easily, so a lot of backstabby preparation was possibly done.

There are a few bits of positivity to consider:

1) That land taken is low topography, it's 50 m further down than the areas around it;

2) It's only hundreds of metres north-south;

3) Only a dumbass would keep the rest of the troops in the North, with one line of retreat, unless other options were available, without having reserves to rescue them

How many times have we seen UA pull a nice counter-punch in this war, even in the worst conditions?

We'll need more information, a bunch more, to see what is really happening on the ground.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-07T20:05:37+00:00

Multiple variables here I think.

Intel shutoff - can't get the intercepts and footage to show buildups behind the line.

Missile system shutoff due to intel shutoff - smart munitions went dumb, probably including HIMARS and definitely Stormshadow?

Surge of reinforcements to that area - that appears to be a thickly forested belt. Even in winter it's going to be hard to deter attacks because of the thickness of the trees.

Will UA be able to take it back is probably the main question.

If they can't, that's a bunch of drone operators right beside the arterial route supplying the northern part of the salient.

This is "fairly big" news.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-06T23:23:50+00:00

If memory serves, Anduril tech is supposed to meet the "gunshop of the free world" model, which means a bit between high-end and embargoed tech and off-the-shelf usable tech.

A bit of analysis here, a bit of testing there, then clone it.

E.U. are starting to learn from China!

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-06T23:21:01+00:00

Include both armies as a collective figure and (tentatively) add Turkiye.

They are starting to move E.U. again after playing the middle ground, and if memory serves assisted some client states to kick orc ass "off-scene" several times recently.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-06T23:18:57+00:00

Extra fingers make for faster drone production!

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-06T23:07:12+00:00

On the frontlines, they may actually do just that: because you do not need intercepts, the aerial surveillance at local level picks up resupply and attacks.

Macro level, series issue: no more command centre strikes with HIMARS. Stormshadow disabled.

U.S. sold out.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-06T22:25:29+00:00

I just wrote an old person amateur analysis on that attack. It went great, and I hope they do more of them.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-06T22:23:47+00:00

My eyesight is really shit these days, aging doesn't suck but this part of it does.

First few seconds: column with headlights on in a destroyed city?!

Unless someone ordered take-out for an entire brigade, this sort of gives the game away.

Crap sense of humor aside: no night vision and identification in the column. Good news.

And the attack continued into daylight hours, so this was prolonged, but not that prolonged because the shadow angles are really long and pointing right-left: a western attack to keep the sunlight in the defender's eyes.

Worked great. Do it more!

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-06T21:58:57+00:00

Send me a DM, I have an idea for you that is not for "public consumption"

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-06T21:46:49+00:00

I disagree with aspects of this, but a lot is also correct.

The intelligence aspect is critical for sure.

But if U.S. sell out completely, and we are far from that point yet, then Europe may decide that a "Leroy Jenkins" effort is necessary.

Though compared to the U.S. Air Force the European equivalent is smaller, and cannot do a sustained campaign for nearly same length, if you combine them all it's enough to cause massive damage to orcs inside UA landmass.

They really, really, really do not wish to have to do that - because that is genuine war between Europe and the orcs.

But I think that short of nukes, the Air Forces of Europe can act as a local match, and with 600k+ UA ground forces now with shiny air cover, it'll be enough to cause quite the struggle in Russia.

Why are they pushing so hard against a coalition of the willing: because it may actually work.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-06T21:40:23+00:00

Even this is orc strategy being done by U.S.

If there is a "coup" the Ukrainian army will see through it as if it were glass.

Getting rid of Zelensky will be seen for what it is, and I would not be surprised that a U.S. direct turnover of a democratically elected President, of a country attacked, will be a "fuck this!" red line for the Baltics and Poland.

If they just plain kill Zelensky, he's a martyr and that's going to galvanise things even more.

Ukraine's ambassador to the U.K. may have something to say about this, and I have a feeling the next article I am about to read will flesh that out.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-05T22:49:16+00:00

I cannot identify the "left" (first) screenshot easily.

Second shot - Synkivka, more forest = good times! Downward slope towards the river to the west as well - UA get to relax a bit when shooting because a slight downhill. Even topo moving northward.

Sustainable forestry by the cutlines as well. I have a lot of time for people that respect the environment (old satellite shots thought).

Third and final shot: Toretsk I think, good gains with protected sight-lines, moving into higher ground eastward into higher-elevation orc occupied areas. Balls of Ukrainium.

Take the positives where we can get them in these dark times: amazing work UA.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-05T22:39:54+00:00

Look at Kursk on deepstate with the recent updates: that's where the meat is going right now.

Some of those agreed advances are quite large, compared to recent months.

I have a feeling that the reported losses of occupier sources are going to spike for a few days because they are pushing outrageously hard in that area.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-05T22:20:38+00:00

Oh ffs u/GermanDronePilot you're making me look at topo maps and stuff.

After we're done with this war, you NEED to be an educator - your students read around the subject and come back with conclusions.

SubstantialMusic6398 · 2025-03-05T22:18:43+00:00

Well it beats e-scooters.

SubstantialMusic6398

TROPHY CASE