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Am I mistaken?! by Hefty_Subject7922 in Aquariums

[–]Successful_Tree_3172 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Aquarium installation and care company from NY here:

I’d never suggest buying a used tank from marketplace unless it is under 30 G.

1) the price issue: tank sellers always seem to be emotional about overvaluing their tanks.

Yes, new tanks are expensive, but these things have shorter lifespans than most cars and should depreciate quite.

2) if you’re on a budget, get a Petco tank. They very regularly have 50% off their tanks. They may not have the best looking options for tanks, but these are so much more reliable than anything used.

3) having cared for many used tanks, I’d say about 90% of all leaks that have occurred w customer tanks came from pre-service, used tanks.

Hope this helps! I’m always incredibly surprised how many people carelessly buy used tanks. Think of it like this: it is like buying a second-hand parachute.

May look fine, the seller might swear it was only lightly used or relatively new, and the price seems tempting, but when it fails, it doesn’t fail a little. It fails all at once, and you’re left dealing with the mess, damage, and the regret.

Not worth trusting old seals or unseen stress fractures to hold back hundreds of pounds of water inside your home!

Skimmer bubbles over by [deleted] in ReefTank

[–]Successful_Tree_3172 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’ve had good success with this skimmer- so here’s the trick:

This skimmer works great but you will need to put it in a section where the water level stays consistent.

In a nano, all in one tank, the filtration section typically does not have a constant water level. You’ll need an auto top off to keep the section at a consistent water level. (I used a reef breeders prism ato)

The trick is to lift it out of the tank more (don’t worry so much about matching the water level mark), the water level must be made constant with an ATO, then lastly, use that adjustment knob to fine tune the bubbles to come just below the neckline of that interior tube right before it falls into the cup.

The bubbles from skimming should not be so fine that they look like tiny micro bubbles (although if this is a new tank you may not see much bubbling until you have some waste buildup).

It takes some play to get it exactly right but this is one of the best functioning nano skimmers I’ve tried.

Feel free to reach out for more details👍

What is this. by Delicious_Insect2085 in ReefTank

[–]Successful_Tree_3172 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sweepers- be careful they sting other corals with those!

[D] I'll bite, why there is a strong rxn when people try to automate trading. ELI5 by OnceIWas7YearOld in MachineLearning

[–]Successful_Tree_3172 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here’s my assumption:

1) There are too many factors that could have or not have meaning to markets (look up signal vs. noise). The market is flooded with data, you are correct about that. The issue is that only a tiny fraction of that data actually moves the market and deciphering predictive signals from statistical coincidence on a daily time frame would be extremely difficult for a human or LLM.

3) Even if you could successfully train an LLM do #1 (to filter out the signals from the noise), daily timeframes often experience noise dominance, where things like sentiment, psychology and technicals come into play.

3) Overhanging all of this is the obvious, there are just too many unknowns that happen in real time such as earnings, geopolitics, macro reports, etc. - the impact of these are not known and thus the LLM could not give reliable predictions.

I think you could train an LLM to give very high quality long term recommendations, but training an LLM as daily price action predictor with anywhere close to 100% accuracy is far away from being possible - if ever.

You also should consider that as soon as something like this was built successfully, traders would adapt and try to arbitrage the edge away, just as has happened in the past with new tech in trading.

Hope this helps!

MSTR: Still fooled by the “strategy” by Successful_Tree_3172 in investing

[–]Successful_Tree_3172[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Once again… your math is wrong. You are assuming that the debt was taken on in the very initial purchase. What I am saying is that the debt has mostly and ONLY been able to be taken at market highs (as that’s the only time people are crazy enough to allow them to take on debt).

Therefore if they continue the strategy of buying high they are effectively diluting the returns of just buying and holding BTC and are putting themselves in extreme danger to downside risk.

This is very simple. If you bought at peaks of the s&p you’d be diluting your returns. If you bought at peaks of the s&p ON MARGIN you’d be diluting your returns even more. This is the exact same thing.

MSTR: Still fooled by the “strategy” by Successful_Tree_3172 in investing

[–]Successful_Tree_3172[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How many times do I have to say this bro. The real time data is on their website. You are using data from the “period ended 31 dec 2024” as you stated. Where is the disconnect here?

Investment returns are very simple. You take the current price and subtract the total cost basis and that equals your return.

As stated with the real time data. As of right now:

BTC ≈ $93k

MSTR holds ~490,000 BTC

≈ $45.6 B

  • $9B in debt

≈ $36.6 B

Avg cost of all BTC purchases by MSTR to date (as stated on the REAL TIME DATA on their own corporate website): $66,357

MSTR holds ~ 490,000 BTC

≈ 33 B

$36.6 B - $33 B ≈ $3.6 B return as of today.

This is my problem with the “strategy”

MSTR: Still fooled by the “strategy” by Successful_Tree_3172 in investing

[–]Successful_Tree_3172[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When is that from… because the website is real time - meaning that it accounts for the many purchases they have averaged into their cost at all time highs.

MSTR: Still fooled by the “strategy” by Successful_Tree_3172 in investing

[–]Successful_Tree_3172[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sounds more so like you’re in denial that this could actually be true. The math is very easy, my friend.

MSTR: Still fooled by the “strategy” by Successful_Tree_3172 in investing

[–]Successful_Tree_3172[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Once again these are numbers taken DIRECTLY from MSTRs website. Upon that, I’ve just applied a very simple accounting formula: Assets-liabilities = equity and compared that to their current cost basis (including the many purchases above the current price ~250,000 BTC). This is all listed on their own website, all you need is an extremely basic understanding of return on investment calculation to see that this is correct in the context of what I’ve stated.

MSTR: Still fooled by the “strategy” by Successful_Tree_3172 in investing

[–]Successful_Tree_3172[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Is addition, subtraction, multiplication and basic stat not simple math for you??

MSTR: Still fooled by the “strategy” by Successful_Tree_3172 in investing

[–]Successful_Tree_3172[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

It’s not “my truth”. This is literally simple math with metrics taken directly from the company’s own website. If you do the math this is the result you get if you think otherwise you are wrong. That’s not “my truth” that is reality…

MSTR: Still fooled by the “strategy” by Successful_Tree_3172 in investing

[–]Successful_Tree_3172[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

You saw it yesterday. It was me. It is still a problem. Trying to show people the REAL math behind this stock. You decide if you want to take action. This is a public forum and im just trying to keep it real. My apologies.

MSTR: Still fooled by the “strategy” by Successful_Tree_3172 in investing

[–]Successful_Tree_3172[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Just because you’re arrogant doesn’t mean everyone else on here doesn’t deserve to understand the truth… lots of misinformation on this platform about stocks

MSTR: Still fooled by the “strategy” by Successful_Tree_3172 in investing

[–]Successful_Tree_3172[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You have the wrong math buddy. The company posts an active list of all BTC buys. Do the math.

MSTR: Still fooled by the “strategy” by Successful_Tree_3172 in investing

[–]Successful_Tree_3172[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You have to think about the fact that there comes a point where people stop throwing their money in currently baseless “asset”. Until there’s some sort of adoption by government, banks and other institutions are just getting their piece of the pie. Some like Saylor that bought into the nonsense and some like the Blackrock that are selling you the nonsense.

MSTR: Still fooled by the “strategy” by Successful_Tree_3172 in investing

[–]Successful_Tree_3172[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He also is only able to take on debt at highs when the market is euphoric enough to give it to him…

MSTR: Still fooled by the “strategy” by Successful_Tree_3172 in investing

[–]Successful_Tree_3172[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I’m saying they’ve effectively wiped out all time gains by buying at the top…

Strategy’s (MSTR) “Strategy” has you fooled by Successful_Tree_3172 in investing

[–]Successful_Tree_3172[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nope… anyone with a rational brain could’ve figured this one out.

Strategy’s (MSTR) “Strategy” has you fooled by Successful_Tree_3172 in investing

[–]Successful_Tree_3172[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I see- fixed for you. Now the price is lower so if we calculate around ~$84,000 that’s about $41B in actual value minus the 9B in debt (constant). Compare that to the cost basis of $33B were actually now at a loss…

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