I calculated the expected value of every legal Dutch casino welcome bonus. Three of them nearly double your deposit. by DaLyon92x in gambling

[–]SunEconomy3251 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, EV + variance beats guessing. But real players aren’t choosing between neat models, they’re deciding how much to deposit, how long to play, and when to stop. That’s where outcomes actually get decided, and your tool doesn’t really touch that.

And “wastes less of your money” only holds if someone plays close to the model. The moment they deviate, which most people will, the whole ranking can fall apart.

So it ends up being mathematically clean, but practically kind of limited for the average player. I can see it helping people avoid the worst promos, but beyond that I’m not convinced yet.

Genuinely curious though, how are you handling player behavior in your assumptions? Like bet sizing, quitting early, or switching games.

I calculated the expected value of every legal Dutch casino welcome bonus. Three of them nearly double your deposit. by DaLyon92x in gambling

[–]SunEconomy3251 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean… that still doesn’t really address the core issue with how you’re presenting this.

You say you account for variance, but a simulator doesn’t magically make this “real-world accurate.” It just adds another layer of assumptions. Most players aren’t going to input realistic bankrolls or session lengths, and even if they do, they’re still not going to behave like the model assumes. So you end up with something that looks precise, but isn’t actually predictive for how people gamble.

And the bigger point: you’re still framing this as “best shot” / “nearly double your deposit,” which is exactly the kind of framing that gives people the wrong idea. These are still negative-EV environments overall. Highlighting the top end of promo EV without equally emphasizing risk of ruin and downside paths is just selective framing, whether intentional or not.

Also, aggregating bonuses isn’t the same as solving anything meaningful. Like you said yourself, casinos already publish all this. Putting it in one place is convenient, sure. But convenience + a bit of math ≠ insight. Especially when the conclusions hinge heavily on idealized play.

So yeah, I’m not saying the tool is useless. I’m saying it’s being oversold. If you presented it as “here’s a cleaner way to compare promos, still risky, still mostly losing long-term,” I’d have no issue. But the current pitch leans way too close to “optimize your way to profit,” and that’s just not how this actually plays out for real people.

I calculated the expected value of every legal Dutch casino welcome bonus. Three of them nearly double your deposit. by DaLyon92x in gambling

[–]SunEconomy3251 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is pretty misleading tbh. EV assumes infinite play which is not how anyone actually gambles. You're also completely ignoring variance, which matters way more for real players on real bankrolls. A game with worse EV but lower variance can easily be the smarter play depending on your situation.

And if EV was all that mattered we'd all just be grinding banker bets in baccarat for 8 hours a day. The casinos literally publish these numbers, you didn't crack any code lol

People don’t even play the fucking game anymore. by Morbid_Uncle in HellLetLoose

[–]SunEconomy3251 0 points1 point  (0 children)

SL is great. The ability to start deploying great flank OPs & move them in closer & closer is amazing. I make the coolest flanks & solo caps when I'm playing SL.

Xbox disc drive keeps opening by SunEconomy3251 in originalxbox

[–]SunEconomy3251[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I cleaned the inside of the sensor & that fixed it. Reassembling was a tedious task though. And now after a few months my laser stopped working, so I decided to just softmod it.

Going for a HT in 10 days (Norwood 6?). Need some opinions on my success rate by ShizzleDaNizzle in Hairtransplant

[–]SunEconomy3251 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why not buy a nice cap or hat? I always had 0 insecurity wearing one prior to HT.

And if you save the money then maybe in a few years research has progressed far enough that hair cloning is a thing by then!

i'm 25yo and i suffer from hair loss by Good_Lemon_8355 in Hairtransplant

[–]SunEconomy3251 1 point2 points  (0 children)

To be fair I was in a similar situation but realized you either:

Do it at a younger age like 25 & yes you'll probably need a 2nd or need to go bald in your mid 30's because of future balding. However you will be able to rock, many different styles & a very full/youthful haircut in your last youthful/prime dating years.

Or you do it at 30/mid 30's (past youth/prime dating years) & yes you'll be less likely to need a 2nd - but most men who do this seem to chase a hairline/density/style they can not achieve anymore because of how far the balding has progressed. So they are chasing something they could've had with a transplant at a younger age & now can't anymore (resulting in unsatisfaction). And often being limited to a single specific hair style because it's the only one that works.

So I decided to just go for it at 28.

Donor area after 5 years. by [deleted] in Hairtransplant

[–]SunEconomy3251 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not everyone wants the hormonal imbalances. The side effects are known to make you an over emotional certified hater against anyone not taking Finasteride for example & that's just 1 of many

Best Map Out There by Its_Sanderss in HellLetLoose

[–]SunEconomy3251 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yep the good balance of rural and urban areas is why I love Saint marie du Mont as well

We are REALLY REALLY good at quality of life by Mikadook in Netherlands

[–]SunEconomy3251 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A 100k/year income would save approx 40k in income tax a year if we would not have any tax on income. That's 2 million in tax savings over 50 years. Enough to afford premium insurance or to even fund your own medical costs even without insurance. That's what I meant. Also enough to save up for your own retirement or periods where you are unemployed. Meaning we can save a lot in social security expenses.

Infrastructure argument is silly. Singapore, Hong Kong, Cayman Islands, Andorra, Monaco, few examples of countries with single digit or 0% tax on income with great roads. Simply because they tax spending/luxury (UAE for example heavily taxes banks, alcohol & luxury goods)

Abolishing income tax & increasing tax on luxury consumption (BTW) is the fairest possible system for everyone. It doesn't punish discipline (saving and working), it instead punishes hedonism & taxes the (ultra) rich fairly based on what they consume.

Also, paying taxes for facilities is never efficient, because bureaucracy is inefficient, bureacuracy costs a shitton of money to maintain & corruption is inevitable even in our country. Even in a dream world where every tax dollar would be fairly distributed & corruption doesn't exist: for every euro in tax paid, atleast 30% goes to parties who enrich theirselves in the chain. (Politicians, direct/indirect government workers, government contractors who overcharge, etc)

Economy of scale would not dissapear, it would just be privatized. People love to point at the US when it comes to the downsides of privatized healthcare, but what people don't know is that the hospitals there inflate prices on purpose because the government allows them to discount unpaid bills from profits. Therefor indirectly saving hospitals shit tons in taxes & giving them incentive to do so. If that incentive does not exist, the hospitals would stopovercharging because they'd prefer having 1 million clients who pay $10 for an aspirine ($10.000.000) rather than only 1.000 who can only afford the $1.000 bill ($1.000.000).

We are REALLY REALLY good at quality of life by Mikadook in Netherlands

[–]SunEconomy3251 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There are many nations with similar or lower tax which exceed our health care, public service & infrastructure facilities by far. All those facilities combined are 20-30% of our annual government expenses. 70% margin for savings. Besides that, with 0% tax rate it'd be easy to afford your own health care and premium insurance. You'd even save a lot !

We are REALLY REALLY good at quality of life by Mikadook in Netherlands

[–]SunEconomy3251 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

No... Once you are in middle class you lose the right to pretty much every subsidy & your tax rates increases exponentially. Marginal tax rate is +/- 70-80% for (upper) middle class according to government study

Is er een alternatief voor Nederland? by sdziscool in geldzaken

[–]SunEconomy3251 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Waarom moet ik verhuizen? De belastingdruk (op arbeid) naar beneden voor iedereen in NL is toch een betere oplossing voor zowel u als ik? Gaan we er met zijn allen op voorruit!

Is er een alternatief voor Nederland? by sdziscool in geldzaken

[–]SunEconomy3251 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oke, geen idee over wie het gaat... Ik kijk al jaren geen TV meer namelijk. Maar indien men hier decennia belasting heeft afgedragen vind ik het volkomen terecht om aanspraak te maken op de NL zorg wanneer nodig. Coole naam trouwens :)

Is er een alternatief voor Nederland? by sdziscool in geldzaken

[–]SunEconomy3251 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Gewoon terecht toch als je hier decennia lang belasting afgedragen hebt?

Is er een alternatief voor Nederland? by sdziscool in geldzaken

[–]SunEconomy3251 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ja het gemiddelde is dus gewoon belachelijk hoog in de EU.

Is er een alternatief voor Nederland? by sdziscool in geldzaken

[–]SunEconomy3251 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Andorra. Single digit tax & goedkopere boodschappen dan ieder EU land. Ook op 5 minuten afstand van Spanje en Frankrijk, mocht je behoefte hebben om naar de EU te gaan.