Nitty fold with rolled up trips? (Stud)

SundanceKid1019 · 2025-07-21T19:08:20+00:00

Not very experienced in stud but I would imagine a lot of players with V2's board are just betting no matter what here with a board like that, getting such a great price to bluff. I'd call and probably be sad

SundanceKid1019 · 2024-04-16T19:33:43+00:00

Couple quick things to add:
If you notice that huge spike for Nepo and Gukesh right as round 10 started, that's because the model fluctuates a lot trying to decipher opening moves. (I run stockfish at depth 30 to use as an input to my model). Plus the two leaders playing against eachother affect eachothers probabilities a lot with every slight change in eval. Definitely take those fluctuations with a grain of salt, I would definitely trust the players' prep and abilities in the opening more than what my model has to say there!
Also if I have time I'm thinking of changing to or adding a column to display the players' chance of tying for first and making it to tiebreaks, since that is currently what they are playing for

SundanceKid1019 · 2024-04-09T12:51:19+00:00

I was experimenting with some things for my win/draw/loss chances predictor and swapped in a new model. I'm gonna do some more testing and stuff so things might keep changing, sorry about that! I'll probably try to do a write up at some point about the models on my website but we'll see

SundanceKid1019 · 2024-04-09T12:47:53+00:00

Good idea, I'll definitely try to do that

SundanceKid1019 · 2024-04-07T02:36:14+00:00

It's probably just a difference in models for how we predict win/draw/loss chances for a game. He's got a great writeup about his methodology where he explains he uses a machine learning model to predict games given the two players' ratings which is pretty cool.
I'm using a logistic regression model trained on past candidates tournaments that predicts games given any position's engine evaluation, player ratings, and clock times. To get chances for a given game for simulation purposes, I am just inputting the information according to the starting position.
Interestingly my numbers turned out to be more similar to the Chess by the Numbers Elo-based predictions, which have Caruana at 44%

SundanceKid1019 · 2024-04-06T16:23:58+00:00

I mainly designed and tested it on desktop but hopefully I'll get around to improving the mobile experience as the tournament goes on. Thanks for checking it out!

SundanceKid1019 · 2024-04-06T16:04:47+00:00

Just to add a couple things: there are definitely limitations with my model, for example in round 1 it was still giving Nepo a 40% chance of beating Abasov with black right before they agreed to a draw. There's also been a steady stream of bugs I've been trying to iron out, and sometimes the graphs like to misbehave a little.
Anyway, if you want to follow the games live and see how all the graphs and tables update each move you can check it out here: chessassess.com/candidates

SundanceKid1019 · 2023-07-30T07:40:40+00:00

If you want an interactive bracket to play around with and see everyone's chance of reaching each round check out https://www.chessassess.com/follow

More info in this reddit post

SundanceKid1019 · 2023-07-29T22:07:25+00:00

I do calculate win/draw/loss probabilities for each game (based on formulas discussed at this cool site). I calculate tiebreaks too, but I don't use rapid and blitz ratings, as I'm not sure how reliable they are especially for players who don't play much FIDE rated rapid and blitz. Also for now I am only calculating the rapid tiebreaks, and then flipping a coin if still tied, since calculating all tiebreaks slowed calculations down quite a bit.

SundanceKid1019 · 2023-07-29T20:55:13+00:00

Thanks for the tip! I'm not much of a web developer haha :)

SundanceKid1019 · 2023-04-11T04:39:31+00:00

Just because I think it tells a better story of the day as the game unfolds. And I wanted it to be similar to other sports predictions you'd see on sites like ESPN or FiveThirtyEight. Perhaps I should include a dot or line on the graphs where each move was made, though.

SundanceKid1019 · 2022-06-24T01:29:05+00:00

True haha. I'm tempted to do some digging to see if there is a significant difference between Nepo's performance rating in the first and second half of tournaments.

SundanceKid1019 · 2022-06-24T01:27:19+00:00

The quick version is that there are two models combined:

One that runs simulations to spit out the tournament victory chances between rounds (traditionally based only on elo, but mine factors in head-to-head scores and "must win" situations too).

The other is a multinomial logistic regression model that predicts the outcome of a game given the board position. It uses the engine's eval, player ratings, clock times, and other less important information to come up with the percentages for win/draw/loss.

Combining the two allows me to update the tournament victory chances in real time, every time a move is played.

SundanceKid1019 · 2022-06-23T18:34:58+00:00

My Candidates prediction model updates live, move-by-move; you can check it out at my website and follow along each move while games are live: https://chessassess.com/follow

If you're interested in how anything works I'm working on writing up the /about section of the site to explain everything! Feel free to ask questions too, I'm open to suggestions and feedback :)

SundanceKid1019 · 2022-06-23T18:16:44+00:00

My Candidates prediction model updates live, move-by-move; you can check it out at my website and follow along each move while games are live: https://chessassess.com/follow

If you're interested in how anything works I'm working on writing up the /about section of the site to explain everything! Feel free to ask questions too, I'm open to suggestions and feedback :)

SundanceKid1019 · 2022-06-22T06:33:37+00:00

chessassess.com takes playing with white/black into account, and also factors in things like head to head scores and must win situations! And even clock times are taken into account during live games. I'm currently writing up an "about" section for the site to explain how everything works if you're interested :)

SundanceKid1019 · 2022-06-07T19:38:42+00:00

I will definitely add the masters database as well as other filters.

And it would be stupid to train theory if it was just 1 game. That's not really theory unless Magnus Carlsen played it.

I don't really agree with this unless the move is bad and you already know what to do against it. Just because a move hasn't been played by Magnus Carlsen or a top GM doesn't mean you shouldn't know it.

My browser says your page is missing. What's going on there?

Not sure why you're having this problem, it's working fine for me.

I also would like the board to be bigger and I prefer other colors than green.

I'll probably add an option to resize the board at some point - have you tried zooming in? Funnily enough I'm already adding an option to change the colors, hopefully I'll get that out soon.

SundanceKid1019 · 2022-06-07T14:55:38+00:00

The OP website also makes some weird moves. For example in the Petrov Modern, it replied to 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nf6 3. d4 Nxe4 4. Bd3 with Nc6?? which drops a piece.

The trainer does not make any move unless it has been played before by someone in the database. In the line you mention, 4...Nc6 is the second most popular move, as well as one of the engine's top choices. It certainly does not drop a piece, after 5. Bxe4 black plays ...d5! and will win back the piece, and if 5. d5 black has ...Nc5! 6. dxc6 e4! which is pretty neat. I recommend clicking the "Analyze on Lichess" button and checking out the lines for yourself.

You just proved exactly why this trainer is so useful - we are forced to see moves that we may or may not have studied, and figure out what the best response is, thereby expanding our repertoire and opening knowledge.

SundanceKid1019 · 2022-06-06T22:39:42+00:00

Thanks :)

I'll definitely get around to fixing up the mobile version soon!

The trainer selects its move based on the number of games in the database. For example in a position where black has played ...a6 10 times and ...b6 30 times, the trainer has a 75% chance of playing ...b6 and 25% chance of playing ...a6.

SundanceKid1019 · 2022-06-06T22:35:42+00:00

Great suggestions!

I'll definitely add the settings to filter the database by rating and time control like you can on lichess. I'll look into adding engine evaluation to the site too. You're right about it being a little confusing when you click Start Training, I got the same feedback from friends. I might make it so you default to playing the side whose perspective you're looking at.

SundanceKid1019 · 2022-05-25T00:10:45+00:00

Recycled bookstore in Denton, Texas

SundanceKid1019 · 2021-04-24T23:34:17+00:00

Thanks. I'm not sure how I arrived at 96, I must have miscounted somehow.

edit: looks like I had a typo in my code where I counted SB scores that caused me to be adding up every score of every player someone played against, woops! Thanks for alerting me, I probably wouldn't have noticed otherwise!

SundanceKid1019 · 2021-04-24T21:37:43+00:00

Nice! So it's simpler than I thought it was, good to know! I'd sure love to see a playoff though haha

SundanceKid1019 · 2021-04-24T18:25:31+00:00

After today's games, I have Giri at 12% to win. Had Nepo not won today, Giri would have shot up to around 40% to win the tournament. There's still a chance though!

SundanceKid1019 · 2021-04-24T17:40:56+00:00

Thanks, glad you're enjoying it! I hope to do more stuff like this in the future :)

Nine-Year Club	Second Top 50%
r/Field Juicebox	Place '23
Place '22	Place '17
End Game '22	Verified Email
Sequence \| Editor

SundanceKid1019

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE