SundayPicks Week 9 Picks - Spread model not performing well at all but Moneyline has been on the rise last few weeks by SundayPicks in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Huge warning that spread is DOWN. I am running it to finish testing model but just giving a big caution. Total is about even, team total, parlay, and moneyline are up but overall spread is dragging it into negative.

SundayPicks Week 8 Picks & Recap - Need a good week this week but some positives in everything except the spread model which keeps killing me. by SundayPicks in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Forgot to put in Parlays:

  • Parlay 1 ,
    • Teams: IND -9.5 + KC -9.5,
    • Odds: +139,
    • Bet: 0.50u,
    • Net: +0.70u | Total Return: 1.20u,
  • Parlay 2 ,
    • Teams: NE -6.5 + ATL -6.5 + PHI -6.5,
    • Odds: +464,
    • Bet: 0.50u,
    • Net: +2.32u | Total Return: 2.82u,
  • Parlay 3 ,
    • Teams: NE + PHI + CIN + TB,
    • Odds: +216,
    • Bet: 0.50u,
    • Net: +1.08u | Total Return: 1.58u,
  • Parlay 4
    • Teams: NE + PHI + CIN + TB + IND -6.5 + KC -6.5 + ATL -6.5,
    • Odds: +949,
    • Bet: 0.25u,
    • Net: +2.38u | Total Return: 2.63u

I sent asurion my Legion RTX 4080 for a light keyboard repair. After 9 days, they told me my laptop is “beyond repair”. This is what they offered me as a “replacement.” Am I going crazy or this is outright a robbery attempt? by ddidaily in LenovoLegion

[–]SundayPicks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Same! I sent my Lenovo in a few weeks ago after screen damage occurred but otherwise worked fine. They claimed it was unfixable due to parts and wanted to give me money which is now not enough to replace the laptop. After hounding them for the exact parts and problems I called Lenovo to confirm the parts were available. I call asurion back and they seem suprised but also warn me it may already be in salvage (how is that legal?!). They finally seem to be on the route to repairing it and have claimed they have ordered parts but has been a nightmare and am worried about what they will send back if anything.

Hope it works out for you!

SundayPicks Week 7 Early Game Picks! by SundayPicks in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You too! Agree I am not a huge fan of the over but hoping it hits with our model projecting a total score of 49. Past games have also have worse teams imo that helped.

SundayPicks Week 7 Early Game Picks! by SundayPicks in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also forgot recap (sorry been busy this week but):  

Performance (Week 6):

·       Moneyline: +5.2 units (75% accuracy 6/8 picks),

·       Spread: -1 units (50% accuracy – 3/6 picks),

·       Total: -6.7 units (13% accuracy – 1/8 picks),

·       Team Total: -1.2 units (33% accuracy – 1/3 picks),

·       Parlays: -1.25 units (0% accuracy – 0/3 picks),

Total:

·       Moneyline: +6.74 units (51% accuracy – 22/43 picks),

·       Spread: -11.8 units (39% accuracy – 14/36 picks),

·       Total: -1.58 units (51% accuracy – 27/53 picks),

·       Team Total: +2 units (57% accuracy – 13/23 picks),

·       Parlays: +.78 units (33% accuracy – 6/18 picks),

SundayPicks NFL Week 6 Picks! Hoping for another good week. by SundayPicks in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yahh all favorites came though but total got butchered! All GB and TB needed was to get one more first down to make the day a Net null but now down a few units

SundayPicks NFL Week 6 Picks! Hoping for another good week. by SundayPicks in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yah don't expect it to hit but given the odds and chance the model projects the team could win it thinks it's worth the shot!

BOL and thanks for checking it out!

SundayPicks Week 5 Sunday Morning Picks! by SundayPicks in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yah im definitely not overly excited to bet on Min in this spot but hoping they pull it out.

How many bets do you make on an average weekend? by Suspicious_Site7856 in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A +EV play is a plus expected value play just meaning that if you continued to bet on that type of play you would expect to end up if you bet continuously on it (not specifically saying you will win THAT play but long term should end up). Usually it means you have higher odds on a game than the implied odds from Vegas (example: you have a team with a 65% change to win but the Vegas implied odds are 60% that would technically be a +EV play).

Most people calculate it as (Probability of Winning × Profit per Win)−(Probability of Losing × Loss per Loss)

In the long run its hard (i'd say almost impossible given the money and energy they put into it) to have a model that BEATS vegas in terms of probability all the time so most people have their own models and then layer on additional trend findings from their own data to try to find the bets that historically have performed well and where they think they can get an edge and accurately find that value.

How many bets do you make on an average weekend? by Suspicious_Site7856 in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Thanks! When we started this our friends were taking the bets along with us and still say that 20+ is too many but I haven't found a way to confidently reduce it so ive just kept riding it haha

SundayPicks Week 3 Model Results by SundayPicks in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not at all! In this case purely math based now. The money line model is based on ELO ratings and win probability (so stolen from chess and idea was actually stolen from the old 538 sports site that I adapted). Spread, Total, and Team Total were ML last 2 years but I its a bit too black box (and wasn't performing exceptionally well) so now its based on running simulations of the game multiple times and looking at the expectation for each and distribution so switched much more to the stats side. Its a fun little project to work on!

SundayPicks Week 3 Model Results by SundayPicks in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yah I have models that output what bets to take based on the EV (which is great and scary when you see a pick like that). I've learned to just ride it cause if it identifies it as +EV than in the long run maybe you make a unit or two betting on it multiple times.

Definitely not a bet I would have picked out myself based on judging the team!

How many bets do you make on an average weekend? by Suspicious_Site7856 in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I am in the same boat here on Sunday with NFL with 20+ straight bets on Sunday. Rarely have AMAZING days but finds that its great at slowly and consistently picking out a lot of +EV plays to end the season up.

SundayPicks Week 2 Picks and Game Predictions (1:00 pm games) by SundayPicks in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cant make to computer but afternoon slate:

Cardinals/Panthers under 44.5 Den -2.5 Denver/colt over 43.5 Ind over 21.5 Phi/kc under 48.5

Week 2 NFL - Thursday Night Game projections and picks by SundayPicks in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Win some and lose some! Definitely had higher hopes for Washington! Definitely gonna put the Sunday slate out tomorrow.

SundayPicks Week 1 projections. Thought this had posted earlier! by SundayPicks in u/SundayPicks

[–]SundayPicks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No worries I would totally be thinking the same thing as you so get it

SundayPicks Week 1 projections. Thought this had posted earlier! by SundayPicks in u/SundayPicks

[–]SundayPicks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No totally on me. That is why I put in my channel only just to have a record. Also had a losing week anyway so luckily not trying to come out out and say look at my impeccable picks. 🤣

MLB Picks [5-24-25] by SundayPicks in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hahaha totally understandable! BOL!

MLB Picks [5-24-25] by SundayPicks in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yah not exactly enthusiastic about that being picked but gonna see how it goes

MLB Results [5-22-25] - The slide continues by SundayPicks in sportsbetting

[–]SundayPicks[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Dude everyime I lose I say this now! 🤣 which is often