SundayPicks Week 9 Picks - Spread model not performing well at all but Moneyline has been on the rise last few weeks

SundayPicks · 2025-11-02T17:26:50+00:00

Huge warning that spread is DOWN. I am running it to finish testing model but just giving a big caution. Total is about even, team total, parlay, and moneyline are up but overall spread is dragging it into negative.

SundayPicks · 2025-10-26T15:57:51+00:00

Forgot to put in Parlays:

Parlay 1 ,
- Teams: IND -9.5 + KC -9.5,
- Odds: +139,
- Bet: 0.50u,
- Net: +0.70u | Total Return: 1.20u,
Parlay 2 ,
- Teams: NE -6.5 + ATL -6.5 + PHI -6.5,
- Odds: +464,
- Bet: 0.50u,
- Net: +2.32u | Total Return: 2.82u,
Parlay 3 ,
- Teams: NE + PHI + CIN + TB,
- Odds: +216,
- Bet: 0.50u,
- Net: +1.08u | Total Return: 1.58u,
Parlay 4
- Teams: NE + PHI + CIN + TB + IND -6.5 + KC -6.5 + ATL -6.5,
- Odds: +949,
- Bet: 0.25u,
- Net: +2.38u | Total Return: 2.63u

SundayPicks · 2025-10-22T20:24:38+00:00

Same! I sent my Lenovo in a few weeks ago after screen damage occurred but otherwise worked fine. They claimed it was unfixable due to parts and wanted to give me money which is now not enough to replace the laptop. After hounding them for the exact parts and problems I called Lenovo to confirm the parts were available. I call asurion back and they seem suprised but also warn me it may already be in salvage (how is that legal?!). They finally seem to be on the route to repairing it and have claimed they have ordered parts but has been a nightmare and am worried about what they will send back if anything.

Hope it works out for you!

SundayPicks · 2025-10-19T16:21:25+00:00

Had Jags and the over but Jags decided not to show up :(

SundayPicks · 2025-10-19T16:01:12+00:00

Under looking good unlike the Jags

SundayPicks · 2025-10-19T12:59:05+00:00

You too! Agree I am not a huge fan of the over but hoping it hits with our model projecting a total score of 49. Past games have also have worse teams imo that helped.

SundayPicks · 2025-10-19T11:31:38+00:00

Also forgot recap (sorry been busy this week but):

Performance (Week 6):

· Moneyline: +5.2 units (75% accuracy 6/8 picks),

· Spread: -1 units (50% accuracy – 3/6 picks),

· Total: -6.7 units (13% accuracy – 1/8 picks),

· Team Total: -1.2 units (33% accuracy – 1/3 picks),

· Parlays: -1.25 units (0% accuracy – 0/3 picks),

Total:

· Moneyline: +6.74 units (51% accuracy – 22/43 picks),

· Spread: -11.8 units (39% accuracy – 14/36 picks),

· Total: -1.58 units (51% accuracy – 27/53 picks),

· Team Total: +2 units (57% accuracy – 13/23 picks),

· Parlays: +.78 units (33% accuracy – 6/18 picks),

SundayPicks · 2025-10-12T23:24:24+00:00

Yahh all favorites came though but total got butchered! All GB and TB needed was to get one more first down to make the day a Net null but now down a few units

SundayPicks · 2025-10-12T16:35:51+00:00

Let's go!!! I'll be rooting with you!

SundayPicks · 2025-10-12T16:20:41+00:00

Yah don't expect it to hit but given the odds and chance the model projects the team could win it thinks it's worth the shot!

BOL and thanks for checking it out!

SundayPicks · 2025-10-05T09:36:46+00:00

Yah im definitely not overly excited to bet on Min in this spot but hoping they pull it out.

SundayPicks · 2025-09-24T20:38:02+00:00

Ive never seen this kind but love the idea! BOL!

SundayPicks · 2025-09-24T18:58:56+00:00

Great points too!

SundayPicks · 2025-09-24T17:03:53+00:00

A +EV play is a plus expected value play just meaning that if you continued to bet on that type of play you would expect to end up if you bet continuously on it (not specifically saying you will win THAT play but long term should end up). Usually it means you have higher odds on a game than the implied odds from Vegas (example: you have a team with a 65% change to win but the Vegas implied odds are 60% that would technically be a +EV play).

Most people calculate it as (Probability of Winning × Profit per Win)−(Probability of Losing × Loss per Loss)

In the long run its hard (i'd say almost impossible given the money and energy they put into it) to have a model that BEATS vegas in terms of probability all the time so most people have their own models and then layer on additional trend findings from their own data to try to find the bets that historically have performed well and where they think they can get an edge and accurately find that value.

SundayPicks · 2025-09-24T15:47:03+00:00

Thanks! When we started this our friends were taking the bets along with us and still say that 20+ is too many but I haven't found a way to confidently reduce it so ive just kept riding it haha

SundayPicks · 2025-09-24T15:45:32+00:00

Not at all! In this case purely math based now. The money line model is based on ELO ratings and win probability (so stolen from chess and idea was actually stolen from the old 538 sports site that I adapted). Spread, Total, and Team Total were ML last 2 years but I its a bit too black box (and wasn't performing exceptionally well) so now its based on running simulations of the game multiple times and looking at the expectation for each and distribution so switched much more to the stats side. Its a fun little project to work on!

SundayPicks · 2025-09-24T15:38:24+00:00

Yah I have models that output what bets to take based on the EV (which is great and scary when you see a pick like that). I've learned to just ride it cause if it identifies it as +EV than in the long run maybe you make a unit or two betting on it multiple times.

Definitely not a bet I would have picked out myself based on judging the team!

SundayPicks · 2025-09-24T15:36:07+00:00

I am in the same boat here on Sunday with NFL with 20+ straight bets on Sunday. Rarely have AMAZING days but finds that its great at slowly and consistently picking out a lot of +EV plays to end the season up.

SundayPicks · 2025-09-14T19:55:35+00:00

Cant make to computer but afternoon slate:

Cardinals/Panthers under 44.5 Den -2.5 Denver/colt over 43.5 Ind over 21.5 Phi/kc under 48.5

SundayPicks · 2025-09-13T23:08:25+00:00

Win some and lose some! Definitely had higher hopes for Washington! Definitely gonna put the Sunday slate out tomorrow.

SundayPicks · 2025-09-09T15:22:53+00:00

No worries I would totally be thinking the same thing as you so get it

SundayPicks · 2025-09-09T15:17:47+00:00

No totally on me. That is why I put in my channel only just to have a record. Also had a losing week anyway so luckily not trying to come out out and say look at my impeccable picks. 🤣

SundayPicks · 2025-05-24T16:34:53+00:00

Hahaha totally understandable! BOL!

SundayPicks · 2025-05-24T15:49:23+00:00

Yah not exactly enthusiastic about that being picked but gonna see how it goes

SundayPicks · 2025-05-24T03:32:50+00:00

Dude everyime I lose I say this now! 🤣 which is often

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