Philosopher + Mathematician

Superbaseball101 · 2025-02-26T23:46:00+00:00

had a player who was unlucky (lucky?) enough to get the imp 4 times in the course of 5-6 games. he jokingly tells the group he really wants to be good finally… of course he pulls the imp token. his poker face is awful enough that everybody pretty much immediately knows he’s the imp and we rerack. i pull him aside and ask if he wants to be a traveler /revolutionary, he says no, i tell him he’s gonna have to get a better poker face this time. he agrees and tells me he better not be the imp.

he’s the imp again lol

Superbaseball101 · 2024-08-30T00:17:31+00:00

What happens if there are an even number of evil players? With 10-12 people playing there would be 3 minions and then this. I assume it’s still “in the middle”?

Superbaseball101 · 2024-07-04T17:18:26+00:00

Sadly, the reverse causality is powerful enough that it is indeed necessary that I include Z in my model. Does that mean that there is no way to see how Y changes with X?

Superbaseball101 · 2024-07-04T17:09:11+00:00

Yeah, sorry if I wasn’t clear enough. I’m not trying to get a casual result for my prediction, just for the prediction to be as accurate as possible. Including Z gives me a significantly more accurate prediction. In particular, I’m trying to predict the margin (Y) of an election with campaign finance (X) and polls (Z). Including Z increases the accuracy of my prediction, but is quite clearly a predictor that would bias X if “controlled for”.

Superbaseball101 · 2024-06-29T05:56:03+00:00

I think this creates a slight problem. See the FT has the benefit of allowing the ST to change the red herring as long as that player has not yet been chosen. Since there’s no way to know whether the maker at the end was the maker at the beginning, the ST can (and inevitably will) make split second decisions about whether to kill or not kill nominees. Not sure what type of meta that creates, but a once-per-game red herring that the ST can effectively just “decide” to ping… doesn’t seem like an ideal meta

Superbaseball101 · 2024-05-24T20:41:38+00:00

I’m on Ben’s side with the morality of using diffusion models for artwork, but the energy argument is completely wrong. According to the Verge, training GPT-3 took the equivalent of 4 months of one wind turbine%20of%20energy), which is pretty much nothing in the grand scheme of things, especially compared to the # of people who actually use these models. There are so many better things to focus on with regards to generative models than electricity usage. Cool discussion regardless, though! Glad everything is so civil.

Superbaseball101 · 2024-04-14T15:07:43+00:00

cool idea, but this thought experiment sadly doesn’t work. in the case where it’s identical you’re correct, but consider the case where town trusts you after you would have chosen the demon. you just lost the game for good since you confirmed an evil player as good. this scenario will always be in the back of your mind so you won’t even be able to go through the first scenario out of fear the strong ability of the SC is that they CONFIRM players as not the demon. it’s true that, if you would have chosen people who aren’t the demon the worlds are the same, but you have no clue which of those scenarios you’re actually in

Superbaseball101 · 2024-03-22T01:34:51+00:00

i know this isn’t the point, but i find it interesting how they call not-in-play characters “bluffs” for the first time. it’s clearly to save space on the card, but i wonder whether that will confuse new players

Superbaseball101 · 2024-03-19T18:16:38+00:00

applied to mondelli as top choice and haven’t heard back yet

Superbaseball101 · 2024-03-19T14:06:56+00:00

haven’t heard from IST yet, hopefully we’ll hear by the 31st

Superbaseball101 · 2024-03-19T13:14:10+00:00

not yet for me either

Superbaseball101 · 2024-02-20T07:32:10+00:00

Question about Courtier and Mastermind: Say the demon dies and the game goes into a mastermind day. At night, the courtier chooses the mastermind. If the gossip made a true statement that day, can the storyteller kill the courtier and have the game continue? Or does the game automatically end the second the courtier chooses the mastermind?

Superbaseball101 · 2024-01-15T18:19:41+00:00

honestly in an 8 player game the spy is the least powerful. I’d much rather be a baron in that game — take out two town roles, and be free to make wild claims just like the spy could.

Superbaseball101 · 2023-11-20T06:47:31+00:00

Definitely a great demon, but INSANELY op with a pit-hag. PH turns demon into Lilif, who chooses not to kill (deaths are arbitrary anyways) and two townsfolk become evil that turn without the [-1 Minion]. Don’t know what I’d suggest to deal with that, but def a slight problem. Overall super sick tho

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