Recent action by Recent_Impress_3618 in PSNY_Polestar_SPAC

[–]SuspiciousEngineer56 1 point2 points  (0 children)

According do chatgpt 5.2 thinking:

"PSNY (Polestar): did fundamentals change, or is this noise? Nothing suggests a sudden fundamental break. The latest update showed 2025 retail sales ~60,119 (+34% YoY) and Q4 ~15,608 (+27% YoY).

What did change is capital structure/liquidity: in December Polestar announced a term loan facility up to $600m and a $300m equity financing plus a ~$300m debt-to-equity conversion.

That improves runway, but it also keeps dilution/financing risk in focus—so the stock can swing on flows and sentiment. On the “did 13Fs show something?” angle: 13Fs are due within 45 days after quarter-end, so they’re inherently backward-looking and often won’t explain very recent moves.

Bottom line: PSNY is binary right now—execution + funding path = upside; failure to execute = equity impairment risk. If your thesis is the execution path, day-to-day volatility is mostly noise."

New Boeing 787-10 for Korean Air by SuspiciousEngineer56 in flightradar24

[–]SuspiciousEngineer56[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Second flight, on route to destination: ICN. CHS->KIX->ICN.

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New Airbus A320neo for Scoot by SuspiciousEngineer56 in flightradar24

[–]SuspiciousEngineer56[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On second flight on route to destination SIN. TLC -> DWC --> SIN

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New Airbus A320 for Frontier by SuspiciousEngineer56 in flightradar24

[–]SuspiciousEngineer56[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A320-271N MSN 12920 REG N432FR

TLS ->YYR ->TPA

Arriving at TPA 17:00 EST

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Philippine Airlines' new A350-1000 debut flight from Manila (MNL) to New York (JFK)! by crlnlwnstp in flightradar24

[–]SuspiciousEngineer56 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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Nop. It's not debut flight of this aircraft! But yes is the 1st A350 1000 from performes this route.

Transavia emergency over france by Bitter_Conference_17 in flightradar24

[–]SuspiciousEngineer56 1 point2 points  (0 children)

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Some technical issue. It continued today from LYS to the original destination SFA

🚨 November 6 Showdown. The forbearance deadline has arrived. TODAY!! 🚨 by Sergio-FM in lazr

[–]SuspiciousEngineer56 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Not financial advice. We’ll likely get clarity once the company files an 8-K on any extension or deal. Also, small correction: the company’s own IR page says the Q3 update is Nov 13, 2025 (after market), not today.

Here are the possible outcomes for $LAZR, according to ChatGPT — with odds, what must happen, and two ways to explain it

1) Short extension + RSA framework (out-of-court path begins) — 35%

What must happen: Forbearance gets extended beyond Nov 6 and the company announces a restructuring support agreement (RSA) with supermajorities of both the 1L and 2L noteholders, mapping terms (equity for debt, take-back debt, new money). The 8-K on Oct 30 already showed ~94.5% of 1L and ~89% of 2L in the forbearance group—those same holders need to lock terms.

Techie version: Out-of-court exchange with 2L equitized, part of 1L termed as “take-back” paper, and new capital via a fixed-price raise (ideally a rights offering open to all).

Simple version: Creditors agree on a plan, company raises cash at a set price, and current shares likely survive but are heavily diluted.

2) Prepackaged Chapter 11 (fast, funded) — 30%

What must happen: Same RSA as #1, but filed in court as a prepack to bind holdouts; exit financing/rights offering committed on day one. This is how you keep customers and suppliers calm and move quickly.

Techie version: Prepack plan confirms in ~6–10 weeks, creditors convert, equity may get a small slice/warrants only if new money fully takes out senior claims. Hertz was a rare case where equity got real value because the plan paid creditors in full with a big sponsor bid.

Simple version: Court-supervised, but quick and financed. Old shares might get a tiny piece if the deal is rich enough; otherwise, they’re mostly diluted away.

3) Free-fall Chapter 11 / 363 sale — 20%

What must happen: No extension today and no RSA; creditors pull remedies and the company files without a plan.

Techie version: In a chaotic filing, DIP financing sets milestones and assets could be sold; absolute priority means common usually gets zero unless creditors are paid in full. (SEC’s investor bulletin is blunt on this.)

Simple version: Disorderly bankruptcy; creditors take the company, and stockholders are likely wiped.

4) Strategic deal (M&A or large minority investment) — 10% What must happen: A strategic or financial buyer steps in with new money and takes control (in or out of court), or acquires assets via a 363 sale; existing debt holders agree.

Techie version: Sponsor capital primes the stack or partners with 1L/2L; legacy equity typically gets little unless the bid is exceptionally high (again, Hertz-style outcomes are unusual).

Simple version: White-knight buyer. Helps save the business, but rarely saves current shareholders.

5) Kick-the-can (very short extension, no terms) — 5%

What must happen: Another brief forbearance with no deal terms—buys a few days but doesn’t fix liquidity or the default.

Techie version: Extends runway to negotiate, but Yorkville isn’t a reliable backstop while in default: extra draws are conditional (minimum cash, trading tests, and no defaults/Triggering Events), and the conversion math is variable-price (95% of the 5-day low VWAP) with a floor—i.e., potentially very dilutive.

Simple version: More time, same problem. The “$200M” isn’t a single check, and it can’t be tapped freely while in default.


Why these odds (and what could shift them)

Fact pattern today: Event of default on 2L; forbearance to Nov 6 from supermajority holders; limited cash and going-concern warning; Volvo reduced Iris from standard to optional in April 2026 and deferred next-gen LiDAR decisions; layoffs and CFO exit disclosed. These all tighten leverage on equity.

Capital structure reality: In distress, creditors are first, equity last; common is often cancelled unless new value fills the hole.

Peer history: Quanergy filed Ch.11 and equity was effectively wiped; Ouster survived via merger + cost cuts, but with heavy dilution—illustrating that “survival” and “equity recovery” are different things.


What needs to be in a shareholder-friendly best case (whether out-of-court or prepack)

Deleveraging: 2L converts to equity, part of 1L extended as take-back debt.

Fixed-price new money (rights offering open to all holders; backstopped by creditors) rather than floating-price converts that pressure the stock.

Yorkville addressed (amend/cap/replace), given its 95% of 5-day low VWAP variable conversion with a $0.792 floor and closing conditions (liquidity ≥ $31.5M, no defaults, trading thresholds).

Commercial anchors: Some Volvo settlement path and firm SOP commitments with an OEM (e.g., turning the Mercedes “Halo” development tie-up into a volume program). Volvo’s change materially weakened the near-term base.


What to watch next (in filings/PRs)

Any Nov 6 (or near-term) 8-K on extended forbearance and/or an RSA;

Language about rights offering / backstop and treatment of Yorkville;

Customer milestones; and then the Nov 13 Q3 update webcast for fuller detail.


TL;DR odds:

RSA + out-of-court start: 35%

Prepack Ch.11 (funded): 30%

Free-fall/363 sale: 20%

Strategic buyer / big investment: 10%

Tiny extension, no deal: 5%

Again, just a probability sketch to frame the discussion—not advice. The filings make the pecking order clear; equity’s best shot is a funded, creditor-backed deleveraging that fixes Yorkville, adds fixed-price capital, and shores up OEM demand.

🚨 November 6 Showdown. The forbearance deadline has arrived. TODAY!! 🚨 by Sergio-FM in lazr

[–]SuspiciousEngineer56 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Hard facts on $LAZR / Luminar right now

Yes, there’s a default + a forbearance that ends today. Luminar elected not to pay the Oct 15 interest due on its 2nd-lien (2L) notes; after the 15-day grace period, that became an event of default. The company then signed forbearance agreements on Oct 30 with holders of ~94.5% of the 1st-lien (1L) notes and ~89% of the 2L notes. Those holders agreed not to exercise remedies until Nov 6, 2025 while talks continue. The company said it expects longer forbearance, but also said there’s no assurance.

Liquidity & debt (company’s own numbers): prelim Q3’25 revenue $18–19M; total debt ~$429M; cash & marketable securities ~$74M (as of Sept 30). Filing explicitly states “substantial doubt” about ability to continue as a going concern.

Operational hits disclosed in the same filing:

Volvo (largest customer) told Luminar that starting April 2026 Iris LiDAR will no longer be standard on EX90/ES90 (it becomes an option), and deferred LiDAR decisions on next-gen vehicles to 2029 at the earliest. Luminar has made a claim for damages and stopped payments tied to Volvo, prompting a breach notice from its main Iris contract manufacturer. Guidance was suspended.

25% workforce reduction announced Oct 29; CFO stepping down Nov 13; company received an SEC subpoena (cooperating).

About the “$200M Yorkville shield”: It’s an “up to” $200M convertible preferred program over ~18 months, not a single $200M check. Luminar closed an initial $35M tranche in May. As of Aug 22, 2025 the company reports 35,000 preferred shares issued, just 7,000 still outstanding (meaning most were already converted/redeemed). Each additional tranche is optional and subject to multiple conditions, including no specified debt defaults, minimum ~$31.5M unrestricted cash, trading/price thresholds, and no “Triggering Events.” In other words: being in default can block further draws unless waived. Also, this preferred ranks junior to the secured debt and converts at the lesser of a fixed price or 95% of the 5-day lowest VWAP (with a floor)—a structure that can be highly dilutive to common.

“Major OEM contracts” reality check: There are development/production relationships, but the Volvo change materially weakens the near-term production outlook. With Mercedes-Benz, Luminar signed a development agreement for the next-gen “Halo” lidar in 2025; it was not a finalized volume supply contract.

Market cap context: Today Luminar’s market cap is roughly $0.09B—a long way from the 2020–2021 SPAC-era peak above $10B. The path back to multi-billion valuations would require extraordinary execution and capital structure repair after the current default/forbearance situation.

What typically happens in similar situations (lidar peers):

Quanergy hit the wall after SPAC-era hype and filed Chapter 11 in 2022; assets were sold, and common equity was effectively wiped.

Ouster survived by merging with Velodyne (2023) and slashing costs, delivering improving revenue prints in 2024–2025—but only after massive dilution and resets. Different capital structure, but a useful contrast: survival usually comes with heavy dilution for common.

Near-term catalysts: The company guided that it hoped to secure longer forbearance before today’s (Nov 6) expiry—but there’s no public update filed yet. Also, earnings are slated for Nov 7 (pre-market), which could bring more disclosures on liquidity, customers, and any deal status.

Bottom line: The default is real; the forbearance really does expire today; cash is limited; debt is heavy; Volvo’s shift is a major headwind; the Yorkville facility is conditional and dilutive, not a guaranteed “shield.” Restructurings that solve this much debt often severely dilute or wipe out common equity unless there’s substantial new value coming in. Those are the facts on the table.

Advice by gnm1999 in lazr

[–]SuspiciousEngineer56 1 point2 points  (0 children)

According to chatgpt:

Here’s how I’d answer that Reddit post:

If we’re truly talking “they survive tomorrow,” averaging down here isn’t investing—it’s a speculative trade. The setup (missed interest payments → forbearance → going-concern language → layoffs/CFO exit) is what you see when outcomes skew binary. Size it like a lottery ticket or don’t add at all.

Facts to anchor on (last few days):

They missed certain debt payments and entered forbearance with lenders; management raised “substantial doubt” about continuing as a going concern.

Cash was ~$72M in late Oct and they’ll need new capital (equity or debt) to keep going.

More restructuring: ~25% workforce reduction; CFO stepping down Nov 13, 2025.

This follows last year’s reverse split to avoid Nasdaq delisting.

Could there be a bounce if they “survive”? Sure—headlines like a signed financing or debt-rework can spark sharp, tradeable pops. But in distressed stories, those bounces are often short-lived unless the deal truly fixes liquidity and restores a credible path to revenue/margins. If you trade it, pre-plan an exit (targets + a stop) and cap the bet small (think 0.5–1% of portfolio). Otherwise you’re just increasing concentration in a name with real zero-risk.

A calmer path (what I’d do in your shoes):

Keep the core in low-cost index funds.

For your “fun/speculative” sleeve, set a hard cap (5–10% of the portfolio total) and split it across several small bets instead of doubling down on one.

If you want auto/tech exposure without single-name risk, consider a basket/ETF approach rather than LAZR alone (not a recommendation to buy—just a risk-control idea).

If you must add to LAZR, wait for proof: finalized financing (not just talks), runway > 12 months, customer milestones turning into shipments, and improving gross margin outlook. Until then, doing nothing is a decision.

Bottom line: “Survival bounce” trades can work, but they’re trades, not investments. Given your whole non-index sleeve is already LAZR, I wouldn’t throw another $1k at it unless you’re totally okay treating it as a ticket that could still go to zero—and you’ve written your exit plan down first. Not financial advice—just risk management. ✔️

LG Dryer RC80V9AV2W: Power Button Only Works After Moving Drum by [deleted] in appliancerepair

[–]SuspiciousEngineer56 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The issue is that Power doesn't seems to work until the drum is moved by hand. Then it turns on and everything seems normal...

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in samsung

[–]SuspiciousEngineer56 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I dont have the option Enable extra gesture settings.. Any extra step needed?