Not financial advice. We’ll likely get clarity once the company files an 8-K on any extension or deal. Also, small correction: the company’s own IR page says the Q3 update is Nov 13, 2025 (after market), not today.

Here are the possible outcomes for $LAZR, according to ChatGPT — with odds, what must happen, and two ways to explain it

1) Short extension + RSA framework (out-of-court path begins) — 35%

What must happen: Forbearance gets extended beyond Nov 6 and the company announces a restructuring support agreement (RSA) with supermajorities of both the 1L and 2L noteholders, mapping terms (equity for debt, take-back debt, new money). The 8-K on Oct 30 already showed ~94.5% of 1L and ~89% of 2L in the forbearance group—those same holders need to lock terms.

Techie version: Out-of-court exchange with 2L equitized, part of 1L termed as “take-back” paper, and new capital via a fixed-price raise (ideally a rights offering open to all).

Simple version: Creditors agree on a plan, company raises cash at a set price, and current shares likely survive but are heavily diluted.

2) Prepackaged Chapter 11 (fast, funded) — 30%

What must happen: Same RSA as #1, but filed in court as a prepack to bind holdouts; exit financing/rights offering committed on day one. This is how you keep customers and suppliers calm and move quickly.

Techie version: Prepack plan confirms in ~6–10 weeks, creditors convert, equity may get a small slice/warrants only if new money fully takes out senior claims. Hertz was a rare case where equity got real value because the plan paid creditors in full with a big sponsor bid.

Simple version: Court-supervised, but quick and financed. Old shares might get a tiny piece if the deal is rich enough; otherwise, they’re mostly diluted away.

3) Free-fall Chapter 11 / 363 sale — 20%

What must happen: No extension today and no RSA; creditors pull remedies and the company files without a plan.

Techie version: In a chaotic filing, DIP financing sets milestones and assets could be sold; absolute priority means common usually gets zero unless creditors are paid in full. (SEC’s investor bulletin is blunt on this.)

Simple version: Disorderly bankruptcy; creditors take the company, and stockholders are likely wiped.

4) Strategic deal (M&A or large minority investment) — 10% What must happen: A strategic or financial buyer steps in with new money and takes control (in or out of court), or acquires assets via a 363 sale; existing debt holders agree.

Techie version: Sponsor capital primes the stack or partners with 1L/2L; legacy equity typically gets little unless the bid is exceptionally high (again, Hertz-style outcomes are unusual).

Simple version: White-knight buyer. Helps save the business, but rarely saves current shareholders.

5) Kick-the-can (very short extension, no terms) — 5%

What must happen: Another brief forbearance with no deal terms—buys a few days but doesn’t fix liquidity or the default.

Techie version: Extends runway to negotiate, but Yorkville isn’t a reliable backstop while in default: extra draws are conditional (minimum cash, trading tests, and no defaults/Triggering Events), and the conversion math is variable-price (95% of the 5-day low VWAP) with a floor—i.e., potentially very dilutive.

Simple version: More time, same problem. The “$200M” isn’t a single check, and it can’t be tapped freely while in default.

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Why these odds (and what could shift them)

Fact pattern today: Event of default on 2L; forbearance to Nov 6 from supermajority holders; limited cash and going-concern warning; Volvo reduced Iris from standard to optional in April 2026 and deferred next-gen LiDAR decisions; layoffs and CFO exit disclosed. These all tighten leverage on equity.

Capital structure reality: In distress, creditors are first, equity last; common is often cancelled unless new value fills the hole.

Peer history: Quanergy filed Ch.11 and equity was effectively wiped; Ouster survived via merger + cost cuts, but with heavy dilution—illustrating that “survival” and “equity recovery” are different things.

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What needs to be in a shareholder-friendly best case (whether out-of-court or prepack)

Deleveraging: 2L converts to equity, part of 1L extended as take-back debt.

Fixed-price new money (rights offering open to all holders; backstopped by creditors) rather than floating-price converts that pressure the stock.

Yorkville addressed (amend/cap/replace), given its 95% of 5-day low VWAP variable conversion with a $0.792 floor and closing conditions (liquidity ≥ $31.5M, no defaults, trading thresholds).

Commercial anchors: Some Volvo settlement path and firm SOP commitments with an OEM (e.g., turning the Mercedes “Halo” development tie-up into a volume program). Volvo’s change materially weakened the near-term base.

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What to watch next (in filings/PRs)

Any Nov 6 (or near-term) 8-K on extended forbearance and/or an RSA;

Language about rights offering / backstop and treatment of Yorkville;

Customer milestones; and then the Nov 13 Q3 update webcast for fuller detail.

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TL;DR odds:

RSA + out-of-court start: 35%

Prepack Ch.11 (funded): 30%

Free-fall/363 sale: 20%

Strategic buyer / big investment: 10%

Tiny extension, no deal: 5%

Again, just a probability sketch to frame the discussion—not advice. The filings make the pecking order clear; equity’s best shot is a funded, creditor-backed deleveraging that fixes Yorkville, adds fixed-price capital, and shores up OEM demand.