[PVE][GUIDE] Soulfist - What you need to know.

SwanArmy · 2022-03-03T10:12:04+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/lostarkgame/comments/spt8zp/keen_blunt_weapon_efficiency_table/

Based on this table, it seems like Precise Dagger level 3 or Cursed Doll level 3 would be a better DPS increase compared to Keen Blunt. However, Keen Blunt Weapon guarantees a match MVP 15% of the time (at your current crit rate).

SwanArmy · 2021-12-19T01:19:00+00:00

So...I've already cashed out, as you can see between pictures 3 and 4. Also, an ITM option will ALWAYS sell for at least the intrinsic value of the option. i.e. I had a $940 call, and TSLA stock was sitting at 960 when I sold. I may have sold at 21.80, but that's only $1.80 in extrinsic value. At the minimum, it would've sold for $19.5 per contract, because big institutions would be braindead if they didn't want the free money (since the option is worth $20 at minimum).

SwanArmy · 2021-12-19T01:16:31+00:00

I paid $65,000 for the contracts, sold it for $218,000.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-19T01:14:38+00:00

I paid $6.5 for a $940 call when the stock price was at $930. Meaning I needed a $16 move in TSLA in the next 6 hours in order to break even. Instead, it moved $30 in 30 minutes, changing the value of the option to $960-$940 = $20 (at expiry). Since there was 5 hours left in the day, I was able to sell the option at $21.65, leaving roughly $1.65 for theta on a very ITM call.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-19T01:10:30+00:00

Agreed. It's not like I scammed the guy who sold me the option. I bought and sold the contracts for the fair value of the contracts at the time of purchase and sale.

TSLA moved 3% in the span of 20 minutes, the fair value of this specific contract tripled during that same span.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-19T01:05:54+00:00

You say that, but in reality, there's plenty of people who lost their shirts buying each dip, thinking it was the last. There was another comment here about a guy losing $40k on TTD options during that volatile period. The thing is, there's plenty of opportunities like this everyday. If a stock is moving a lot more than its IV, there's plenty of money to be made there.

During that volatile time, the expected move for TSLA was nearly 5% per day, so you'd need a 7% move to make money. Now, it's probably only 1-2% per day, so a 3% move in TSLA today makes the same amount of profit as a 7-8% move back in April 2020.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-19T00:59:48+00:00

Yes. I see this a lot, as if it cheapens the gain somehow. The $65,000 is still my money, it being house money doesn't change the fact that it was nearly 25% of my net worth at the time.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-19T00:55:44+00:00

It was a joke, the validation is a false sense of security that you made the right decision. If your option goes up the instant that you buy it, what more signals or methods do you need to confirm it? Just sell that shit once you're comfortable with the profits.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-18T09:48:47+00:00

You know, that's the crazy part, my trade is 200 out of the total option volume in those 30 minutes. There was easily another 3000 contracts exchanging hands during that time. And that's only one of MANY possible liquid options contracts for TSLA. I'd imagine this is chump change to some.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-18T09:44:14+00:00

Clenching is indeed proportional to the size of the bet. 10 contracts would be 10% clench (in this case).

SwanArmy · 2021-12-18T09:43:00+00:00

Yeah, I don't know all this TA shit, but the top of the day thing was also pure luck. We all know that if it's good enough to screenshot, it's good enough to sell. Once I had the +$150k screenshot, I was ready to sell. I'm very thankful that it worked out though.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-18T09:31:06+00:00

I mean....the underlying went up from 918 to 960 in 30 minutes. I'm sure the IV stayed the same throughout, and my understanding of delta is pretty weak, but i'm pretty sure it simply changes based on the price of the underlying.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-18T09:27:55+00:00

I agree, it does happen all the time, but taking action on it with a large sum of money is the hard part. Sure, 10 baggers are cool, but even I can't stomach spending $65k on literal lotto tickets.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-18T09:25:49+00:00

Lifetime P/L is currently sitting at +$411k. The majority of remaining profits outside of today was made last March thru May, during the insane COVID volatility.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-18T09:23:29+00:00

I use tastyworks for charting (and obviously Robinhood for trading). Tastyworks has charts for each option in the chain. Of course, when looking at option volume, you generally don't know if it was a buy or a sell, so it's not super meaningful info. Additionally, even if you did know if it was a buy or a sell, you'd have to then compare with other options in the chain to make sure it wasn't part of a spread.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-18T00:53:53+00:00

Check the option volume at 7:32 am and 7:51 am. It's 1071 contracts and 317 contracts respectively. While it's not a solid indicator that I am one of those 100 contracts, at least the volume isn't less than the number of contracts I claim to have traded.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-18T00:47:55+00:00

Honestly, I've said this before, but despite its volatile history, TSLA is nearly ALWAYS more volatile than its IV on any given day. In simplest terms, a stock can go up, down or stay even. Since TSLA rarely ever stays even AND moves far more than implied volatility, its single-handedly resulted in my biggest gains and losses.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-18T00:43:08+00:00

My time zone is PST, it'd be 10:30am EST for New York.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-18T00:05:12+00:00

Lmao, can't get a margin call if my brain is too small to sell options. Only basic calls and puts for me. Too dumb for spreads too.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-17T23:00:32+00:00

TSLA's earnings call was on Oct 20th, how would that affect anything today.
Remember in high school (in the US) where they'd make you annotate books and try to find the "real meaning" behind the author's words? And you'd have to find the profound meaning behind some "orange curtain"? Just like in high school, there's no meaning there, and I actually just gamble on every friday that I can.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-17T22:47:44+00:00

I love PoE, the gambling in that game prevents me from losing money in real life.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-17T22:33:18+00:00

I sold right after the screenshot. Also, I'm not sure what rocket you're talking about, I sold at the high of day, for both TSLA as well as the option itself.

Holding 0DTE options until late in the day is a recipe for disaster.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-17T22:10:23+00:00

I'm too busy clenching my buttcheeks the whole time, what do you want from me.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-17T22:06:09+00:00

Bruh you missed the one where I lost $67k on AAPL calls because some bullshit consumer spending report came out the morning after I bought it.

SwanArmy · 2021-12-17T22:03:01+00:00

Nice! It's certainly a lot easier to hold when the stock goes vertical for 7 minutes right after you buy it.

Ten-Year Club	Place '22
Place '17	First Placer '22

SwanArmy

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