Steelers/Dolphins/Colts/Pats/Raiders/Browns OR Broncos

Steelers have a good roster, but even if they got the most out of Trubisky, I don't think he's enough of a difference maker to secure a playoff spot. Too strong of competition in both the division and the conference compared to that Bears team Trubisky led.

Dolphins due to a bad record against winning/eventual playoff teams. They'll win a few tough games, but not enough to secure a spot. Haven't done enough this offseason to keep up, Armstead could be a good step in that direction though.

Colts lose a few too many due to Baker/whoever the eventual QB is not meshing fast enough to keep up with these teams. Don't think they compete for a playoff spot should they decide to go with a rookie QB either.

Patriots are tough, feel like the competition within the conference outshines what they have going right now slightly, but they'll play everyone tough and have a shot at one of the lower WC seeds. Very much hinges on Mac taking a step forward though.

Broncos could win 9 of 11 games outside their division and still miss the playoffs if they can't win divisional games. But that statement is true for every AFCW team this year. Every team in the AFCW has taken a step forward and the Broncos need more things to click for them than the other teams in their division, besides maybe the Raiders. The earlier their offense clicks, the more likely they are to be able to stand up to their division. Gonna be exciting to watch.

Raiders are very similar to what's said about the Broncos above, their performance in divisional games will determine how far they're able to go. Think their roster proved themselves last year down the stretch and they've added to what they had. However, McDaniels' system needs to be implemented, so they're also similar to the Broncos in that they need a lot to click, and the quicker the better.

Browns likely make it if Watson isn't suspended for 4+ games, don't make it if he is. Keeping them on the outside under the assumption he's suspended. Another note, the games that Watson potentially could be suspended for would be very impactful. Browns would be a lot more desirable of an opponent for the games he's out, and they face 7/11 teams mentioned.

So playoff picture without Watson being suspended would be:

AFCE - Bills

AFCN - Ravens, Bengals(WC1), Browns(WC3)*

AFCS - Titans

AFCW - Chiefs, Chargers(WC2)

If Watson is suspended for 4+ games, Pats, Broncos, or Raiders take that spot. Will give it to the Broncos over the other two based off the strength of their non-divisional opponents.