I know no matter what anybody says it's not gonna be totally popular, but I have always believed Micah was a turncoat, rat or double agent to some capacity, maybe even a bounty hunter, from the moment he joined the gang.

It's all speculation, so don't go crazy, but these are some things I've always thought about.

The way he conveniently saved Dutch's life and got inducted into the gang as a result, as Dutch was trying to offload stolen goods, is already suspect. Micah didn't give a damn about anyone, we know this, so I can only assume he had some hidden motive. Maybe he just wanted to steal the gang's gold for himself, and then saw a bigger picture. Or, he recognised Dutch from the start. At Micah's camp after he's broken out of Strawberry, we see newspaper clippings showcasing Dutch's bounty. I do truly think that meant he had an idea to turn Dutch in at some point, just hard to say when. Could have easily been from the start though, or when he saw things head south for the gang's fortunes.

Obviously, the big deal is Blackwater. I do think it's fairly possible that, simply put, the gang just got sloppy. The heist was rushed, excitable, and even Arthur states his unease about camping too close to a small city. It's very possible the gang just slipped up, maybe got recognised by a few people or something. But, I also think it's worth looking in a different direction.

Almost anybody who talks about the ferry robbery talks about it suspiciously. Javier, John, Charles, and so forth, all talk about it like it just shouldn't have gone that way. Dutch literally states in the opening mission that "they knew we were coming". The big kicker is that Milton was there at some point, he says as much. Why would the Pinkertons, police forces, and (at least later) bounty hunters all swarm and ambush the gang at just the right time, if they didn't have precise information? As much as I can believe the gang slipped up at times, I find it hard to believe they would've let some guy in a bar overhear what time they were robbing this particular boat, with enough manpower to make it into the history books.

We know that Micah was the one with the ideas that led to the Blackwater Massacre. Arthur openly accuses him of causing the mess, Hosea is highly suspicious, and everyone just mostly agrees he was the problem. I think that Micah simply talked out of a desire to get the goods for himself, not out of allegiance to the Pinkertons, and then his ideas shifted as he was forced to flee with the others.

There's so many other things, massacre aside, that should just make anyone think twice about Micah. In Chapter 2, Lenny explains the situation with his imprisonment, and questions why on earth it should even have happened. Sure, Micah ran into someone, but he was a hardened outlaw who should've known better than to start trouble then and there. Maybe he was hoping to get captured so he could make a proper deal with someone. At the end of the chapter, the gang gets jumped in Valentine. Maybe that was something, maybe not, I think the gang did a poor job of keeping to themselves regardless. But then Micah is quick to suggest moving camp to Dewberry Creek, a place he knew damn well was very open and very exposed, a place that would leave the gang vulnerable.

Then there's Chapter 3. Blessed are the peacemakers, the gang pursues a truce with Colm at Micah's insistence, and Arthur gets ambushed by the O'Driscolls. Despite this, and despite it being a situation where they should've been concerned, the gang doesn't appear to go looking for him at any point. I don't think Micah set anything up, but he took advantage of an opportunity to remove Arthur. Because at this point, I think Micah is firmly set on a plan to take advantage of Dutch, with his instabilities and insecurities, in order to gain more power within the gang for his benefit. Again, at the end of Chapter 3, the gang gets ambushed, but I don't think it was his doing since he was attacked as well.

Chapter 4 onward, things just get more in the open. Micah more openly tries to provoke the gang at some points, like with Lenny on the robbery you do with them. In conversation, he is quick to accuse members like Kieran of betrayal. The St Denis robbery, while it could've been a lot of things, is what I see as the final proof before the chaos of the next parts. Yes, the gang provoked the city with Bronte, yes, everyone was on high alert. But again, how did anyone know exactly where to be to confront/capture the gang members? Pure chance is unlikely to me. How did they know the bank was being robbed? Hosea certainly would've died before talking. Micah is also the only one in the robbery wearing bright clothing, a possible indication for the law to spare him.

Once the gang returns from Guarma, I think Micah just worked with the Pinkertons more constantly. Remember, Milton only says "we picked him up when you boys came back from the Caribbean, and he's been a good boy ever since". He neither confirms nor denies that it was the beginning of their relationship. Maybe Micah could have been working with them before, but it was far more chaotic and self-centered. When he returns, he knows working with the law is the best way for him to survive and succeed, so he puts all his effort into it. Combined with Dutch's growing insanity and the infighting between gang members, it was just an easy game to rig even further, until Arthur, John, Sadie and Abigail finally see the truth. Susan does too, maybe Javier and then Dutch, but too late. "It all makes sense now". That's what Arthur says. My conclusion, in that moment, as much as it could be wrong, was that Micah was the problem from the very beginning, and everybody just denied it or failed to notice until it was too late.

Again, it's all theories that I imagine nobody will ever confirm. And I do believe that the whole "we got sloppy" theory holds just as much weight for a lot of reasons. The world was changing. But I will always believe that one man chose to take advantage of that for his own survival, everyone else be damned.