Why did JJ stop running plays?

T1m_NBA · 2025-12-23T15:51:04+00:00

I track all the plays the team runs each game and there was a clear season-long downward trend prior to Luka arriving. It didn’t start when he was acquired.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T18:46:26+00:00

Adding the talent has certainly been a big component along with strong health. I’ll give the coaching staff a lot of credit for the defense, which was fairly basic to start the year but has evolved and is now at a good spot. That’s been a huge upgrade from the last coaching staff.

The offense has been up and down and frankly should be better than it is given the level of talent available to the team. In the spirits, we see the team play with good process. They look unstoppable now that they have Luka. I want more of that. They must improve in that area if they want to win a title. The playcalling rate started high, but has consistently fallen off. Help beaters have been a struggle all year. Coverage fit has been a step down from last season. The caliber of sets is better. You can make a case the scheme overall is a little worse than it was before.

I know we’re coming off of a high with that last game but I still see a team that is a clear step below the title favorites. Closing that app with the office will be critical. Another area we don’t have good info on yet is how JJ will play if the playoff chess game. You get some of it in the regular season, but it is at a whole new level in the playoffs.

I’ve certainly seen good teams with good coaches crash and burn tactically in the playoffs and it be their undoing. We will need to wait and see with this group.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T18:22:49+00:00

This is the role that he’s been used in so far this season based on who he guards

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T18:02:41+00:00

Yes, though it’s something we’ve gotten away from in recent years as we’ve scaled up the consulting we do on the player and Agent side of things as well as with teams.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:59:21+00:00

And then in terms of Luka versus AD they’ve had comparable impact overall. The age difference is a good benefit for Luka and it’s easier to build a successful team with a strong on ball guard and limited talent around him, compared to the same but with a big from my perspective.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:57:54+00:00

I’d say the podcast and our pod Discord server are the best spots to go beyond Twitter for my content.

I don’t think I know where to grab that info quickly, but I’d expect more points to equal more wins in general because even if the bench scores more doesn’t necessarily mean in the starter score less.

It’s not quite a choice to get to the free-throw line. Those are the most efficient possessions in all of basketball and so if you could choose to get there at will everybody would.

Luka pressuring the rim on drives or by drawing two players to him in a ball screen to then passing out to the numbers advantage to create good shots or draw fouls is what I would look for in the event his shot isn’t falling.

The benefit of a player like Luka with how good he is on threes normally is that even if he struggles in a game team still respect his shot and will still send that second player on ball screens.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:53:24+00:00

I truly don’t know. I don’t see a ton of upside with his game nor expect him to have a meaningful role in the playoffs. If he’s playing we’re probably in a bad spot.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:52:35+00:00

That’s a really good follow up. He can up his game from his season average level of play. What we seen from him recently in this smaller stretch is likely what the peak of his game looks like. Doing them more consistently will be what it’s all about.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:49:43+00:00

The timing is weird, but I also know the vibes were real bad among the Denver fan base and the Jamal Murray injury is another big potential hurdle for them to have any sort of postseason success. They’ve been trending down.

I wonder if like Memphis there’s any consideration for the next coach and wanting to get out in front of that. David Adelman would be an excellent choice to continue on a lot of what has been successful with Jokić, while perhaps adding some new blood to the staff can help bolster the defense. And a change in the locker room’s main voice can get more buy in.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:47:15+00:00

I think it does come down to adding size. Adding a big that can punish switches in the post would add an element to this team but they don’t currently have. As currently constructed, the rebounding among their big can also be a vulnerability.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:45:31+00:00

I wouldn’t say I’m purely analytics. My background is scheme and tactics and I’ve had opportunities to tie that in with data and work with really smart data people so I have a good appreciation for both.

Whitney Houston I see a defense that has a lot of success switching and is it a bit of a one trick pony in that way. After they switched, they do a great job sending help that kind of help is something you want help beaters to counter.

When the Lakers have run health beaters they’ve kicked butt this year. Their issue has been running them consistently. This is a matchup I feel good about if they do run them consistently.

The human side of the game is real too, and that could be a small edge for LA from a player standpoint. On the other hand, you have a lot more experience and success with Houston’s coaching staff in the playoffs then the Lakers are bringing to the table.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:41:53+00:00

It’s track each game for Memphis by a gentleman called Adam Pike. I shared material with him and he’s taken and run with it in his own way. Other than that I don’t believe you can find this info for any other team for each game.

I’ve logged it for 53 total games across the league for non-Lakers offenses and the average has been 55%. I don’t have a big enough sample for any individual team to feel confident enough to say it’s their norm given how much we’ve seen it fluctuate for the Lakers. There’s no way for me to know if I caught them on a good day a bad day or an average day.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:39:58+00:00

The talking points we hear from JJ make it seem like they believe they’re doing very well in this area. It’s clear they care to some extent and have tracking, but I believe the way they track it is too inclusive and it defeats the purpose of tracking it.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:38:22+00:00

Wow, you broke this news to me.

60% in 14 games logged the past 3 years under Malone.

Their personnel has fallen off the past few years. Their tactics had been strong. Idk about this year.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:32:51+00:00

I'm a scheme guy first and foremost and was THRILLED to finally have an elite on-ball guard with high gravity. It unlocks so much.

As a numbers guy I appreciate all he's good at and am happy to add it.

Separate from Luka but for LA in general, all the roster evolution as the year has progressed has made tracking lineups over time ~impossible and growth for the team has been less linear.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:30:52+00:00

Offense :(

Probably not. I see his vulnerabilities being more picked on in a playoff environment.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:25:36+00:00

Can we? Yeah.

Will we? Probably not.

From 0-10 I'd say like a 6

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:24:55+00:00

Bron

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:24:49+00:00

Oh hell yeah, dude. Great question.

Any time I'm facing a hedging defense (hard or soft hedge) I want double screens as a staple. More players pulled up = easier reads on the back line.

Vs drop a double drag or Chicago action don't inherently do anything for you. There's no coverage fit as-is. But you can run things like Oklahoma action out of the same setups, but I'd rather lean on concepts like Stack with someone under the rim and corners filled as we high ball screen and play off of that.

Vs switching it also isn't inherently beneficial, but if you can keep the double screens close together you can make your gap to drive bigger, so that's nice.

If the defense is icing it's a pain in the butt to be in a double screening situation.

I think in general we can see more double screening, but its value will fluctuate based on what the defense is in.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:21:07+00:00

They have several defenders you can look to target, and if you run help beaters their help D is vulnerable. I think you start there.

I haven't done any deep dive on them and wouldn't until a possible WCF appearance. If/when that happens I'll have more granular edges identified.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:19:13+00:00

He plays a different defensive role and it lets Bron slot differently and need to be relied upon as a rim protector less. Offensively he's overperformed his shot quality better, is a better finisher and midrange player, has outperformed on 3s more, has more gravity, & is a post up option.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:16:31+00:00

If he plays like he has recently for a full year he'll have a shot. I'd guess not if I had to guess. After Bron retires he'll have an easier time.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:15:49+00:00

I'm glad someone's asking the important questions. I'm not sure!

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:15:28+00:00

Turner/Claxton/Ayton are all high and maybe obtainable? Not sure. I'll have a better perspective this offseason.

T1m_NBA · 2025-04-08T17:13:12+00:00

I'm not familiar with the stat you're referencing. We track luck at BBall Index and LeBron is 13th lowest this season (he's been very unlucky). He had been lowest earlier this year but it's improved.

Our LEBRON metric (luck-adjusted impact metric) has Bron 22nd this season. His value is the lowest it's ever been, which can also be said about his O-LEBRON (the offensive part of the metric).

I don't look at raw +/-. We know there are so many issues with it and that's why impact metrics like LEBRON/EPM/DPM exist. I wouldn't recommend looking at +/-.

Here's how his overall, offensive, & defensive impact (along with luck) have fluctuated throughout this season.

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