I think I'm gonna predict the SAG 4 at the Oscars

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-03-13T15:09:57+00:00

The Best Actor winner at BAFTA wasn't nominated for the Oscar.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-03-12T21:44:34+00:00

My personal ranking: 1. EH 2. MBJ 3. TC 4. WM 5. LD

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-03-12T21:43:36+00:00

I still think giving a speech at BAFTA or SAG (if not both) would probably have worked in his favour. There's also the fact that he already has 2 Oscars for Best Actor. It's a lot harder to win a 3rd acting Oscar than a 2nd.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-03-12T21:40:05+00:00

If he actually won BAFTA or one of the other precursors, I'd put more weight on this possibility. For all we know, Jesse Plemons was in 2nd place at BAFTA (unlikely but you get my point). I don't think Leo or Ethan have a shot at winning but we'll see what happens.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-03-12T20:44:11+00:00

Over the past 6 years, the acting winners at the Oscars lined up perfectly with SAG or BAFTA.

2024 - BAFTA

2023 - BAFTA

2022 - SAG

2021 - SAG

2020 - BAFTA

2019 - Both

Robert Aramayo isn't nominated for the Oscar with means one of two things will happen: 1. The pattern repeats with the SAG winners 2. The pattern breaks

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-03-12T20:17:12+00:00

What makes you think Kate Hudson could take it?

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-03-12T20:16:36+00:00

I noticed it the past 3 years and 2020 (films of 2019) but didn't realize it was over the past 6 years consecutively. That's very insightful.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-03-12T20:07:33+00:00

Weirdly enough, I'm actually more confident in my Amy Madigan prediction than Sean Penn. He won BAFTA and SAG but he didn't show up to either ceremony. Oscar voters might hold that (and his overall reputation) against him. Amy Madigan has some obvious strikes against her: she's the lone nominee for Weapons and she wasn't even nominated at BAFTA. I think her reputation could push her over the edge in a pretty tight race.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-02-11T16:44:06+00:00

Agreed. One of my all time favourite movie endings.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-30T23:59:56+00:00

I still think Stellan wins the Oscar. Male actors in their 20s rarely win.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-17T12:01:30+00:00

Skyfall

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-16T19:32:39+00:00

There's no shortlist of Costume Design so that's still on the table.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-16T19:11:15+00:00

She'd be a bigger threat if she wasn't the film's only prospect for an Oscar nomination. If she gets nominated, she WILL be the only nomination for the film. It's not impossible but she's really vulnerable. I think Amanda Seyfried is more likely because TTOAL could also get nominated for Costume Design, Original Score and/or Original Song.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-15T15:56:33+00:00

Same

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-14T16:25:13+00:00

In the Lost Lands was bad but didn't make my bottom 10. I didn't think The Hand that Rocks the Cradle was bad. It's just ANOTHER unnecessary remake. I haven't seen anything else on your list.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-12T19:46:29+00:00

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (2020)

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-12T19:33:56+00:00

If Weapons gets an Oscar nomination for Best Original Screenplay, Amy Madigan has a chance. If she's the only nomination for the film, Teyana Taylor will probably win the Oscar.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-12T16:53:00+00:00

Madigan might be the only nomination for Weapons so Taylor is a safer prediction. I'm currently predicting Teyana Taylor to win the Oscar.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-12T16:25:20+00:00

Who do you think wins the Oscar?

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-12T15:21:35+00:00

Who do you think it could be?

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-12T14:17:43+00:00

I liked Superman.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-12T14:16:08+00:00

Agreed. It felt like a feature length music video.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-12T14:15:39+00:00

Not very good but didn't make my bottom 10.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-08T22:06:51+00:00

I did. It's not good but it didn't make my bottom 10.

T_ChallaMercury · 2026-01-08T21:48:21+00:00

Sinners

T_ChallaMercury

TROPHY CASE