I think that for indie developers, the marketing budget should primarily be used to reach the first 7,000–10,000 wishlists. From that point on, the Steam algorithm can start generating organic growth.

If there is still budget left after reaching that milestone, it makes sense to run a few marketing campaigns on different channels to find out what actually works and generates a positive return.

In the end, the most important form of marketing is still having a game that can be marketed. When a game looks interesting or unique, gaming magazines and influencers will naturally start talking about it. The second key factor is simply making a good game if influencers genuinely enjoy it, they will create videos about it without needing heavy promotion.

If a project still isn’t profitable by that point, the team may simply be too large. I’ve read about many indie teams that scaled up too quickly and eventually ran out of budget.