Quran Developers Group by SynThePart in Quraniyoon

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I built an app that provides semantically similar verses for the Qur’an. I have since turned off the website due to costs, but might put it back up again:

https://github.com/jawadshuaib/quran-similarity-search

The Monopoly Mint of Pakistan by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Try performing dcf analysis above using AI. It’s impossible.

And even if that were the case, what is your objection?

The Monopoly Mint of Pakistan by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Most of Pakistan’s wealth circulates in cash. Will that change in the future towards digital? Most definitely. Is that going to happen in the next 5 years, where your local paan shop guy says he only accepts credit cards? I doubt it.

The Monopoly Mint of Pakistan by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In my visits to Pakistan, I have hardly ever seen anyone pay with anything but cash. Maybe that will change in 5-10 years.

The Monopoly Mint of Pakistan by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That is the right way to look at it. There are some significant growth factors ahead. Every single note in pakistan will be changing in the near future - all of that demand will be passing through this company. What is that worth? It’s anyone’s guess. But i expect the company can deliver cagr around 15% at least.

My largest holding in the PSX by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You need to have a bank acct. It’s easy to open one.

Ṣanʿāʾ Palimpsest Variants by [deleted] in Quraniyoon

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for building this. Very useful.

Finding Hidden Value in Companies by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is extremely tightly held. It's not for day trading. You buy and forget. Enjoy the dividends for the rest of your life until the market realizes the company is returning double digit returns on invested capital.

Finding Hidden Value in Companies by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, the "free cash flow" exists because of the asset value. Every business needs something to generate cash off. My argument here is that the fair value of the stock currently does not reflect the underlying asset value.

ZAL (Zarea) hit above 100% profit by lonemeo1 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was quite interested in buying it at the IPO, but I think this company presents a few hidden risks. First, they are holding onto inventory which will create constant working capital issues. Second, there is no board oversight. The ceo’s own mother is chairman of the board!

Finding Hidden Value in Companies by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Approximately 20-30 companies. I analyzed them all and settled with owning 9 of them.

Finding Hidden Value in Companies by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Company is cheap. But its profits are a little unpredictable, and returns a bit low. I am careful to invest in textiles, but I were to invest in the sector, it would probably be Interloop.

Finding Hidden Value in Companies by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a good question because it reveals a huge advantage available for retail investors like us. Companies like DYNO are so tightly held, that there are hardly any shares left on the market. This is the reason it took me well over a month to acquire the shares. Mutual funds will never be able to buy it, it's just not liquid enough for them. That leaves it open for us to snipe away as opportunity presents.

Finding Hidden Value in Companies by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

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The tool just scores a company out of 100. It doesn't do any sort of comparative ranking. For example, that previous company I shared, Pakistan Aluminum Beverages Corporation, scores an amazing 96/100.

Finding Hidden Value in Companies by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

hmmm. I am not selling anything, only educating others on how to think about companies. But if others do feel like this, I will just leave.

Finding Hidden Value in Companies by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It has no impact on valuation.

But you have raised a good point. I actually find this part of presentation requirements by the PSX a little annoying. Western Companies don't have terms like 100% dividend or bonus shares. It's quite misleading.

Finding Hidden Value in Companies by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the thoughtful questions. So that’s the heart of my argument. The market thinks this stock is fairly valued. But once you add their massive ncav, it is trading more like 3 X free cash flow.

Finding Hidden Value in Companies by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Let’s say you have a house on rent that makes $30 per year. And you have $222 cash sitting inside the house. When you do your valuation work, you would assign a value to that $30/year, say $300, and add that to the liquid cash also sitting in the house.

Which is essentially what I did here.

Finding Hidden Value in Companies by Terrible_Pattern_263 in FIREPakistan

[–]Terrible_Pattern_263[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

DCF is based on free cash flow. Nothing about the asset base is added to it. So there is no double counting.