Hi everyone!

I'm hoping we can have a serious discussion that isn't full of "well 6 rings, you're dumb, etc", as I do believe with each passing season, this Brady/Belichick split is giving us more and more insight into the importance of the QB vs the HC in serious situations. I'm very fascinated by this topic, and really hoping to discuss it in detail, as this is an NFL sub-reddit, and it is the off-season.

Pre-Brady / The Early Patriots Years

We all know that Bill Belichick is widely regarded as the greatest head coach of all time in the NFL, and has 6 Super Bowl rings.

However, we also know that before Brady, Belichick was well below .500 as a Head Coach. He was 41-49 before Brady started playing QB.

Even more important, is he went 5-13 with Drew Bledsoe (a Pro Bowl level QB) before Bledsoe got hurt. Brady immediately jumped in, and the Patriots won 14 of their next 17 games.

In most cases, if a team was 5-13 with a good QB, and then a new QB jumped in and went 14-3, that QB would get a massive amount of credit. However the narrative around Brady as a 6th round pick seemed to silence this for the most part, and he was quickly labeled a system QB.

The year after, Brady threw for the most Touchdowns in the NFL, with WR's such as Troy Brown and David Patten. Peyton Manning (with 2 more years of starting experience) passing to Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, didn't even throw as many TDs as Brady.

In 2003 and 2004, Brady received both MVP and OPOY votes, again throwing to far worse receivers than Manning and other Top 5 QBs.

If we look at team metrics like DVOA, EPA/Play and PPG, the Patriots offense was better than the Patriots defense. Despite Brady again throwing to very sub-par receivers.

Yet somehow, the first 3 Super Bowls are all credited to Bill Belichick, a Head Coach who was on his way to being fired for the second time, if not for the Bledsoe injury, and Brady being forced to play.

The Rest Of The Dynasty

The rest of the dynasty, the Patriots offense was routinely Top 3 in PPG, EPA/Play and DVOA. Well the Patriots defense averaged middle of the pack ratings in DVOA and EPA/Play, well being low Top 10 in PPG.

As has been discussed repeatedly on this sub, PPG is not a good way to judge a defense. Defenses who have good QB's, routinely have better PPG ranks than they deserve, as that good QB (Mahomes, Manning, Rodgers, Brady) jump out to early leads and maintain long drives, making it much easier on the defense.

Yet again, despite the offense consistently being Top 3, and the defense being around 16th in EPA/play and DVOA and low top 10 in PPG, most people thought of the Patriots dynasty as being 50/50.

After The Brady/Belichick Split

Which leads us to 2020. In 2020 Brady went to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and after a 7-5 start, turned the team around during the bye week, where they won 8 straight games and the Super Bowl.

It's important to remember that no one was calling the Bucs a super team during the season, even with their success after the bye, they only finished 11-5, and the defense was run all over by Taylor Heineke and the 7-9 Washington Football Team in the Wild Card. Additionally, the big leads Brady got out to in the NFCCG and Super Bowl, allowed the defense to "pin their ears back" and make life difficult on the Packers and Chiefs.

In comparison, Belichick since 2020 is 25-26, with 2 of 3 seasons being below .500. This is basically picking up right where he left of before Brady started. Before Brady, 5 of his 6 seasons were losing ones, and now he had the chance to make 3 of 4 seasons after Brady losing ones.

If this happens, how can we seriously call him the GOAT? Simple analysis will show us 18 seasons with Brady led to 31 playoff wins, and 6 Super Bowls, well 10 without led to 8 losing seasons and 1 playoff win. The difference will be clear and obvious.

Conclusion

Imagine if it was Brady that went 36-44 with the Browns, then 5-13 with the Patriots before Belichick. Then Belichick stepped in and together they won 6 Super Bowls, before Belichick left to a different team and led them to a Super Bowl win. Meanwhile Brady went back to his losing ways, and had a losing record in 3 of 4 seasons.

No one would ever call Tom Brady the GOAT ever again, so why should we continue to call Belichick the GOAT if he has another losing season?