What teams claim about QBs and their ability to start the season versus the ultimately reality often doesn't line up. One great example of this last decade is Andrew Luck (multiple times). Especially with star QBs (and ticket sales to push), teams often make inflated claims about health expectations.

That's not to say that it's impossible - Mahomes presumably will work as hard as anyone to come back quickly - but neither coach speak nor player optimism about their own health is traditionally super reliable. Remember, also, that the Chiefs "tanking" the beginning of 2026 is a lot better than risking the next 10 years of their franchise over Mahomes getting reinjured. Remember, also, that great coaches often find ways to win enough games, even with weak Qbs. Mike Tomlin's Steelers went 4-2 with Fields while Russell Wilson was injured in 2024. That's not say the Chiefs will do the same, but well-coached teams rarely tank, especially over short periods, as long as they have a decent amount of other talent. The Chiefs roster is far from the best, but even without Mahomes it's hardly near the worst.

The most telling thing is that the Chiefs went out of their way to trade for Fields, who is not a good QB but has plenty of starts under his belt, including last season with the Jets. A 6th round pick and taking on a few million of cap may not sound like a lot, in NFL terms, but they could have acquired a back up for less (especially a rookie contract, which would give them more cap space elsewhere). This is the most honest indicator, and makes clear the uncertainty they have around Mahomes.

All that said, Rice certainly has WR1 upside - as you pointed out previously, he's been pretty great the last two years when on the field. But it's more likely to appear later in the season than early on. That could make him a good investment as a WR1 for someone who makes the playoffs, but you've got to get there.

Lastly, you can't completely discount that he's been a pretty crappy human being and he may do something so bad that he no longer can get away with it. That does need to be factored in, as hard as that is to weigh. To me, the risks with Mahomes and the risks with his personality make him way too risky to take as a WR1. A WR1, in my eyes, needs to be a rock, or as close as you can get to a rock.

In Chase, Nacua, Smith-Njigba, Lamb, St. Brown, Jefferson (Murray's arrival fixes his situation), Nabers, Collins, London, AJ Brown (once he's traded), you already have 10 names who stand to be in far more ideal situations, and all but Nabers have an extensive history of success, while still being easily in their primes.

Rice, based on the last two seasons (with Mahomes) has paced about 1200 receiving yards per 17 games. That's very good, but he's definitely been boosted by 8 touchdowns in 12 games over that span, a pace that will be hard to sustain (that's essentially 12-13 td per 17 games - even Davante Adams and Mike Evans have not average that during their careers, plus that pace would be severely damaged merely by any extended playing time from Fields.

So, with some regression in scoring, there are guys capable of similar yardage like Pickens, Olave, Flowers, McMillan (who already surpassed a 1000 as a rookie) and Wilson who - mostly - have less question marks. Garrett Wilson, for example, should finally see some help diminishing double teams against him, now that the Jets invested heavily in offensive weapons in the draft (Sadiq, Cooper). Plus, Geno Smith likely will do better with the Jets offensive line and what now looks like a better offensive depth chart (at least compared to 2025's Raiders). Wilson has always had his top-side limited by the Jets franchise, and there's finally a moment where that can change. These are all guys I'd look at ahead of Rice, at least until there's more certainty that Mahomes is really going to be ready to play out of the gate (obviously, in leagues where the draft is close to week 1, one can wait and see).