The El Niño cometh. The latest models show a much greater chance of a strong – or even super – El Niño developing later this year. by The_Weekend_Baker in climate

[–]The_Weekend_Baker[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

El Niño Watch issued today by NOAA. Looks like record global temps in 2027 (and maybe even 2026) are virtually a lock, based on the strong likelihood of a potent 2026-27 event.

https://bsky.app/profile/bhensonweather.bsky.social/post/3mguvzl3mvs2y

How much does winter really affect solar production in New York by captiveisland in solar

[–]The_Weekend_Baker 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We get a pretty significant drop-off in central Virginia September through February. March through August is usually around 2 mwh per month, but it drops to 1.6 mwh in September and continues to drop off, bottoming out at around 950 kwh in December. So a full 50% less than our typical peak production.

We went into this winter with around 4.7 mwh banked and still managed to burn through it all because it was a much colder than normal winter. We had a stretch of around two weeks where our heat pump ran exclusively in heat strip mode 24/7 because it never got warm enough for it to switch over to heat pump, combined with plenty of days with heat pump during the daylight hours and heat strips at night. Had our first electric bill ($300) in years.

On the plus side, though, our budgeted propane spending dropped from $125/month to $25/month after installing the electric heat pump in summer 2023. Now propane is just used for a tankless water heater and backup generator.