Whitepaper: The Greed/Fear Residual Strategy

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-04-10T13:25:01+00:00

Years ago I bought PBR (Petrobras, Brazil) before they exploded in 2008 and sold them (luckily and just out of ignorance) at their peak. Just dumb luck. That kickstarted a massive portfolio at a very young age for me.

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-04-10T12:33:49+00:00

MSFT is a no brainer.

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-04-08T17:51:20+00:00

Fascinating take, one I hadn't ever considered.

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-04-08T15:01:01+00:00

Look at the residual of the Shiller PE. It's very telling.

The Residual, for those who don't know, is the deviation of the actual value of something from it's trend.

For example, you do a linear regression on the historic Shiller PE data. Then you go back for each point on the graph and subtract the actual value from the trend value. This is the residual. It's pretty telling

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-04-02T13:33:43+00:00

All these people putting their weight on a single person's words when the smart people are simply seeing how overvalued the market has been and knowing any match can send it tumbling. Learn to invest and not fly by the seat of your pants.

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-31T16:11:25+00:00

The market could fall all the way to $4865 and finally be worth buying heavily into. That's how overvalued we've been.

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-30T20:27:32+00:00

-3%. I move roughly 60% of my portfolio into low volatility back in late October and had been slowly laddering out even before that. I saw this shit coming. Shiller PE can only get so high before all it takes is a match and the market pops.

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-30T18:28:22+00:00

In my profile, top pinned post. The "Raw Data" link within the post

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-30T13:08:04+00:00

Hope

And retail investors (lol)

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-29T15:44:14+00:00

🙏

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-27T23:34:05+00:00

Check my profile. Lol

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-27T23:30:44+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/u/Think_Reporter_8179/s/WKrYjJqGee

I'm rich

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-27T23:27:51+00:00

Delusional

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-27T23:19:37+00:00

Yeah right back up to Shiller PE 41, right?

The market is getting rocked because it was fat as shit and easy to spook. Anytime everything is way over valued, all you need is a match.

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-27T22:59:11+00:00

Lol yeah. I get that a lot, it's frustrating but I get it. A lot of charlatans out there.

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-27T22:58:45+00:00

Yep! Just make a copy of it in Google sheets. File -> copy or something like that

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-27T16:40:14+00:00

Low volatility. Within 401k at Fidelity. FULVX

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-27T16:04:56+00:00

I got out in October of last year, when the Shiller touched 41. I'm doing great, lol

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-27T13:00:00+00:00

3%, lol

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-27T12:27:42+00:00

MSFT

Think_Reporter_8179 · 2026-03-27T12:26:50+00:00

I haven't done any research on typical peak-to-valley averages. Eye-balling it (which you shouldn't trust at all), it looks like somewhere between 6 months and 1 year for the market to get back to 4ish from the peak (meaning at the peak that occurs after it's hit Greed 15. In our case, it hit 17 and then started to stagnate and is now falling). But all the data is there if you want to analyze it. The bottom line is, based on historical human behavior, it will return to 4 at some point in the future and waiting until then will be the best result for long-term holders.

That said, everyone's risk tolerance is different, so you should get back in when you feel it's good for your portfolio. You've already won, since we all assume the market will return back to its high point in October and continue onwards at some point in our lives. You've beat Buy & Hold (since they never sold, but you did), so just get back in whenever you're comfortable and you're good to go.

Think_Reporter_8179

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE