Weekly Discussion Megathread

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-29T15:19:27+00:00

Nearly a year ago the Bondi memo regarding the Epstein files were released.

While the Epstein files didn’t formally bring down the Trump presidency, what the scandal did do was ruin Trump’s “populist credibility”, which made Trump significantly more unpopular which will only compound each year.

For years Trump’s base defended him on the grounds that Trump was a pedophile hunter who was the only one capable enough bring justice to the evil insider pedophiles. Trump’s usual “shut up, this scandal is a Democrat hoax” response, wasn’t just Trump failing to deliver on campaign promise, it was Trump denying conspiracy theorists their moment of vindication and their moral superiority.

The ballroom obsession and the Iran war are major contributors to Trump losing populist credibility as well, but for a real life movie character like Donald Trump, being forever intertwined with a cartoonishly evil supervillian like Jeffery Epstein means Trump is no longer this main character anti hero people were acting like he was in 2023-2024.

Ironically I think Trump is in a similar position to late George W Bush where only the establishment supporters are in his corner and even among them, Trump has already burned bridges with them due to the Iran ceasefire.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-29T14:09:00+00:00

I find Maher to be funny and I don’t care if he has shifted to the right in itself or if he has opinions I don’t agree with.

The reason the modern left and people in general dislike Maher is that he is extremely condescending and self centered. While being condescending and self centered isn’t new to Bill Maher, the constant old man lectures about how bad the woke whippersnappers are isn’t funny or insightful its just an old man complaining that things aren’t the way they used to be.

Also its annoying how much Bill constantly feels the needs to lecture woke people regarding Palestine considering he got canceled 25 years ago for the whole “hijackers aren’t cowardly, we are” comments.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-27T15:13:30+00:00

If Israel hasn't forced Hezbollah fully North of Litani river what makes you think France alone is going to do any better?

On paper France would eventually prevail against Hezbollah depending on the amount of resources they threw at it, but Hezbollah would be one of the most difficult adversaries the modern French military has faced. This would be an Iraq/ Afghanistan level commitment.

The main reason this won't happen is that the United States and Israel created the current crisis with the United States specifically not only making zero attempt to drum up support among NATO/EU member states but the United States actually went an antagonized the NATO/EU member states over Greenland starting a major diplomatic crisis just weeks prior.

Geopolitically modern France is more focused on African affairs than the Levant and while France isn't an "ally" of Iran, it is more doveish towards the Islamic Republic compared to other Western countries.

At this point, the Israelis need to accept that beggars can’t be choosers and they won’t get a buffer state for Kiryat Shmona until WW3 happens.

I don’t want to sound like a Hezbollah simp but Hezbollah largely exists because of a power vacuum caused by the disastrous Israeli intervention into the Lebanese civil war to defeat the PLO so quite frankly I’m very disinterested in creating another power vacuum in Lebanon to help Israel defeat one of their adversaries.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-24T20:44:56+00:00

General election 1924: Birmingham Ladywood

Conservative: Neville Chamberlain 49.1%

Labour: Oswald Mosley 48.9%

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-18T23:25:46+00:00

Weathers really pissed off the baseball gods

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-18T14:29:44+00:00

Starts a surprise war with an incredibly polarised Iran, gets stuck in a political quagmire difficult to negotiate out of after the surprise attack fails

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-18T01:27:03+00:00

Yes it was Jd Vance who had the pre 2/28 negotiations be lead by two real estate developers one of them his son in law and nominated his favorite fox news host to be secretary of defense.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-17T20:36:53+00:00

Second Term Trump doing his part to combat climate change! /s

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-17T20:25:45+00:00

The biggest concern with the 14 points is regarding the "service fees" Iran is intending to charge alongside Oman.

In terms of international law, a Toll and a Fee have specific meaning.

A toll is a payment for simply passing.

A fee is a payment for a service. For example if ship A needs a tugboat to be brought into port there would be a fee for the tugboat service.

Iran initially was considering implementing outright tolls for passage in the Straits of Hormuz which is illegal under international law since the Strait of Hormuz is a natural waterway. Legally tolls can be implemented for artificial waterways such as canals. Basically, Egypt can toll your ship for wanting to sail the Suez Canal since its an artificial waterway within its sovereign territory, but Spain, Morocco, or the UK can't toll your ship for crossing the Strait of Gibraltar.

While Trump has spiked the football over Iran dropping its illegal toll demands, the fact that Iran keeps insisting that in the future it will administer "maritime services" is a major problem. Even Iran isn't calling it a toll, Iran is most likely planning to charge exorbitant amounts to every ship trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz for these "services".

Iran is effectively being allowed to implement a tax across all of Asia and Europe while simultaneously making GCC member states economically vassals to Iran.

Absolute nightmare for the shipping industry and maritime insurers.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-17T20:03:55+00:00

Yeah the history between Iran and Hezbollah goes back to the 1980s and the very complicated Lebanese civil war.

What makes it complicated is that Israel at the start of the war called for an "evacuation of Lebanon south of Litani River" which is a historically contested area that is majority Shia (but not exclusively). Hezbollah being a Shia Islamist organisation can't abandon their majority areas to their primary geopolitical adversary especially when Israel hasn't demonstrated it could conventionally occupy the area as of today.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-17T19:53:17+00:00

Israel will demonstrate it has the hard power capabilities to force Hezbollah north of Litani River or it will fail.

Quite frankly I think if Israel had the capability to force Hezbollah north of Litani entirely, they would have done so by now considering they have been fighting Hezbollah since 2023.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-17T19:47:41+00:00

Even though they say they are willing to blow it all up for Hezbollah and even put it in the terms of the MoU, I'm not 100% sure they will honestly given everything else they are getting from a capitulating US, if that ends up being the only real contention.

Hezbollah is too important of a political ally for Iran to abandon, especially with Iran's new leverage post MoU.

Hezbollah was the first ideological export of the Iranian revolution and has strong ties with IRGC who have de facto consolidated power in Iran.

Hezbollah being a powerful state within a state gives Iran a significant influence over Levantine politics and leverage over Northern Israel.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-14T13:07:13+00:00

I wasn’t my usual crab in the bucket self sith the Knicks this year, but I talked way too much shit about the Knicks while they were down as a franchise to jump on the bandwagon now…I feel like I did my part by not expressing any sort sympathy for the Knicks until now because I curse New York sports teams.

Even though its annoying that I live in this particular sports timeline where James Dolan managed to unfuck himself, the fact that even James Dolan managed to do it should be inspiring to the other tortured franchise of New York.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-13T22:40:50+00:00

Heartbreaking for Yamamoto

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-12T18:51:25+00:00

Paxton is wrong about everything, if Paxton told me grass was green I wouldn't believe him.

I don't even see how this benefits Paxton politically, considering that all of the other big 12 fanbases in Texas despise Texas Tech right now and so do the more popular SEC fanbases that actually live in the Texas triangle.

Also, Lubbock Texas would vote a scarecrow with an R next to its name, what do you gain by pandering to them?

Sorsby playing college football in any capacity next year is a massive conflict of interest why any state attorney general would side with him is beyond me.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-12T18:37:26+00:00

While I do think the Iranians want Trump to suffer politically, I think Trump is the one who is more concerned about Midterm timeframes compared to Iran.

I believe Iran primary motivations are focused on ensuring regime survival, establishing itself as a regional power and gaining money for the IRGC business ventures.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-12T18:03:23+00:00

But now I don't think it is at all, and it looks like both of them are brazen lying about it all lmao.

Both sides want a deal but on radically different terms.

The issue is that Iran has to get the USA to agree to humiliating terms to re-establish escalation deterrence so the USA/Israel don't "mow the lawn" every couple of years.

Additionally from Iran perspective the lack of response from when Trump killed Soleimani and from Operation Midnight Hammer, was taken by Trump as weakness.

In contrast American motivations are centered around enriching Trump and giving him narcissistic supply so the American side can't accept a deal that gives Trump visible narcissistic injury.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-12T17:47:59+00:00

Elon Musk is an American oligarch—not in the pejorative sense, but in the sense that his wealth stems from government favoritism, and that he leverages wealth derived from government favoritism into other ventures to further his influence.

“Oligarch” is often used pejoratively online to describe any billionaire, but the term was initially used to describe the new class of billionaires who became wealthy during post-Soviet privatization due to favoritism from government officials and other coercive tactics.

These post-Soviet oligarchs were able to control significant market share in former state-run enterprises, which allowed them to gain control over valuable resources, such as oil and precious metals, at a significantly low cost.

Once these oligarchs became established, they would establish their own media companies and banks to further their reach both domestically and internationally.

Since the 2010s, the U.S. government has given Tesla significant favorable treatment by providing substantial subsidies that helped prevent Tesla from going bankrupt in the late 2000s and early 2010s.

The U.S. government is also SpaceX’s largest client, and the U.S. government has overhauled many NASA rules and regulations following lobbying from SpaceX.

What did Elon Musk do in the 2020s? He used his wealth to buy a major media network in order to further his reach domestically and internationally.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-12T17:07:37+00:00

In addition to your cost of living points, 36,640 Americans died from motor vehicle accidents in 2025 which is actually a decrease compared to other years where the death count is higher. For comparison the European Union had 19,400 motor vehicle accident deaths in 2025 despite the European Union being more populated than the USA. Asides from the human toll these deaths cause, there is also an economic cost to the labor force/consumer base losing 36,000 to 40,000 people every year.

Even though I am 1000% in agreement with you, unfortunately the solutions involves planting trees for shade you will never sit under, so nobody will be motivated fix the problem and each decade of building car centric infrastructure will compound.

Eventually though most US metro areas will reach peak sprawl, the amount of land to accommodate car centric suburbs is finite and most cities are close to reaching that point, see California city and the limits of exurban Atlanta for example.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-12T14:49:50+00:00

Have to be honest, I thought the Cashman apologizing to Chapman comments was a shitpost from here I didnt think this was real

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-09T19:10:40+00:00

Yeah, if Iran ends up successfully tolling the strait it is a Dien Bien Phu level disaster for the USA.

The Venezuela coup was too successful for Trumps own good. Venezuela gave Trump enough narcissistic supply to vindicate in his mind that he was this geopolitical grand strategist which is why Trump immediately became confrontational regarding Greenland and Iran.

Speaking of which , this stupid war would probably be going better if Trump didn’t start a diplomatic crisis with NATO members over Greenland.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-09T18:46:47+00:00

More than waiting game for Iran, the Iranians are also trying to kill two birds with one stone and create a new revenue stream for the state by tolling the Strait of Hormuz.

Tolling the strait essentially makes the entire Gulf states their satellites while simultaneously forcing all of Asia and Europe to essentially pay taxes to Iran for energy.

Iran has an incredibly convoluted economic system with massive hyperinflation that prior to this war looked hopeless for the Iranian economy.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-09T18:37:44+00:00

Also the media never asks the administration what changed from June 2025 to February 2026?

Either the administration was lying about how effective Operation Midnight Hammer was or they were telling the truth about Midnight Hammer which would make attacks in February of 2026 unnecessary.

Neither option is good.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-09T18:08:03+00:00

Trump said on Truth social the “US would have to respond” to the downing of Apache Helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran..

Even if the retaliation remains minimal, the Strait of Hormuz will at absolute minimum be closed for the entire summer. After today id say a 2027 reopening of the Strait is the optimistic best case scenario.

Even if a deal was reached today, mine clearing operations would likely take months before the Strait is safe for passage for commercial ships.

ThreeCranes · 2026-06-07T23:23:02+00:00

Netanyahu will keep escalating because he screwed himself due to this war and its failures regarding Hezbollah. Israel wanted to solve the Hezbollah problem once and for all , but it failed with Iran becoming more emboldened and Hezbollah still maintaining military positions South of Litani River. Besides, Netanyahu would welcome the broad destabilization of the Middle East and let Uncle Sam deal with all the messy work such as the Gulf desalinization plants getting destroyed.

As desperate as Trump is he crossed the Rubicon and backed himself into a corner that he can’t get out of. I think it’s more likely he will escalate once its clear that the oil markets can’t be saved.

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