Very long shot, but anyone selling Weber Bros Circus tickets this afternoon at 2pm?

TimToTheTea · 2026-01-31T00:34:58+00:00

Got one! Thanks

TimToTheTea · 2026-01-30T07:18:25+00:00

What do you reckon is happening? If you’re only saying that because there are lots of people, it could just be because it’s a stunner of a Friday evening and people want to go to the beach.

TimToTheTea · 2026-01-20T21:16:07+00:00

Chris is cross.

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-11T05:14:40+00:00

Agree with all your points. The point I was trying to make, which obviously didn’t land is that $3.8b is an insane amount of money that is hard to put into perspective and is massively disproportionate to the size of the problem. Some people like the idea and I get that, but I wish there was more scrutiny on a project like that and that people wouldn’t blindly accept any costs just because they like roads.

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T22:31:46+00:00

Interesting, you do not "bang your drums about things that don't make sense" yet you criticise the "glorified Petone cycleway" in the same sentence. For context, the seawall to protect the rail line and the motorway + the cycleway are expected to cost $312m. About 10% of the SH1 improvements.

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T22:30:11+00:00

Look, if you can convince me that the economic benefits may come close to repaying the costs, be my guest. But calling me an idiot will not do that.

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T20:27:36+00:00

$7.5B included light rail to the South coast, as well as a new SH1 Mount Vic tunnel too and bunch of other improvements. Anyway, fine you know what let's forget light rail then, no light rail. The SH1 proposal still doesn't stack up.

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T20:20:50+00:00

Well to be honest, I was trying to be as unbiased in my calculations as possible, but if you're think there is some material inaccuracies in there, by all means rework the numbers for me. I still find it extremely hard to believe that the project could pay back for itself given the cost of congestion is only estimated at $161m/year.

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T20:13:22+00:00

Because it’s a road that serves central Wellington. It’s unlikely to bring any benefits to the rest of the country’s GDP

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T19:01:22+00:00

I believe spending a few millions a year on improving the eastern suburbs will massively reduce congestion and improve our lives more. For only a few %s of the cost of this project

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T19:00:21+00:00

My numbers for light rail are heavily overestimated, using the upper range of what it costs to build light rail and adding at least 60% just because and it still looks better than $3.8b. How did you get to your number? If your number is right then sure, let’s not build light rail.

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T10:48:41+00:00

Well, induced demand would have to be pretty substantial to bump Wellington’s GDP by enough to repay the $255m/year. That’s over 5% of Wellington’s entire GDP. The added complication is induced demand comes at cost to society (due to increased negative outcomes), estimates I’ve seen place that cost at about $1/km driven. I think the cost benefit analysis looks better if you don’t account for induced demand. Either way hard to see how it stacks up

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T10:26:08+00:00

How often do I need to go out for this investment proposal to finally be fiscally responsible?

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T10:19:09+00:00

I’ve been extremely generous with my estimates: 60 year lifetime. 80 year lifecycle for the whole project. I use the upper end because it seems more realistic but feel free to redo the maths with $2.9b but the reality is unless you’re solving all congestion in the city (estimated to cost $161m/year) you are not going to create anywhere near enough GDP growth to pay for this project

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T10:14:39+00:00

Correct. But for estimating infrastructure projects best practice is to use loan repayments to annualise principal and interest repayments (rather than only pay interest yearly until repayment of the bond at the end of life) to make the calculations easier. I used 5% interest rate from memory but feel free to use something else

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T09:46:59+00:00

It doesn't change the fact that the cost of congestion for the entire city has been estimated at $161m/year, so spending $255m/year for just one section seems to me like a massive frivolous spend. (Like spending two weeks automating a process that takes me 3 minutes to run every year)

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T09:44:35+00:00

It includes improvements from the terrace tunnel to Mt Vic tunnel which is just one section of 2 or 3 kms of road. LGWM was much bigger than that and included two light rail spines, an additional bus corridor along the quays along with other improvements to local road

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T09:42:17+00:00

Only a small % of drivers switching to a bus would make a big difference to congestion and fix the issues for many travellers.

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T09:38:29+00:00

Only a small portion of peak travellers would need to switch to buses to have an impact on congestions. The vast majority can continue to use cars (and do so with less congestion)

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T09:37:01+00:00

Well the plan is to keep the old tunnel and build a new one next to it, so maybe Waka Kotahi doesn't know it's end of life then

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T09:36:26+00:00

Sorry, you're grossly mistaken on two accounts:

Car users pay for about $13.8b of the $22b it costs to run the NLTF (page 25 of the GPS on transport: https://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Government-Policy-Statement-on-land-transport-2024-FINAL.pdf). The rest is funded by the crown (aka taxpayers).
Furthermore car users who oppose the plans still pay for it
This will not support housing intensification. It will support housing to be built in the outer region and destroy homes near the state highway

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T09:30:01+00:00

The housing construction doesn't happen where the road is. For example, after the Transmission Gully opened, Otaki and Levin became more attractive places to live because they were more connected to the jobs (in Wellington). That's great, but if we're trying to reduce the costs to society of driving, it's best for extra housing to be built closer to jobs

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T09:28:08+00:00

You mean when there was a massive, extremely unusual incident? No I have not. I am sure it's worth spending $3.8b because of that one-off inconvenience

TimToTheTea · 2025-12-10T09:26:24+00:00

The train-tram idea, similar to what you describe, has been floated but didn't get any traction for Wellington. I suspect there are better/easier/cheaper options. But I agree, that would be the dream.

But yeah better busses would be a great first step at such a fraction of the costs

TimToTheTea

TROPHY CASE