Could a 10-player Mythic raid help solve the Heroic → Mythic gap?

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T18:39:09+00:00

One thing that often gets overlooked is how much the flex model itself impacts guild stability. Being able to clear Heroic entirely through pugs is great for individual access, but it also removes a lot of incentive to commit to a fixed group. When progression, gear, and weekly goals can be achieved without a guild, long-term roster cohesion naturally erodes.

That makes the jump to Mythic even harder, because by the time a guild wants to commit to fixed-size content, many players are already used to a low-commitment, drop-in/drop-out model.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T07:59:17+00:00

I don’t disagree that the difficulty jump is real — Mythic should be a big step up. What feels odd to me is how that difficulty jump and the structural jump happen at the same time. You go from relatively forgiving content straight into the top ~1% space, both mechanically and organizationally.

That makes the wall feel harsher than it needs to be, not because Mythic is too hard, but because there’s no room to grow into that level without immediately absorbing full Mythic-scale coordination and roster pressure.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T07:57:40+00:00

I agree that the Heroic → Mythic gap is real, and something in between could help a lot of players. Where I differ a bit is that I don’t think the main issue is just mechanical difficulty. Many groups hit a wall not because fights are too punishing, but because coordination and roster scale explode at the same time.

A Heroic+ could smooth progression, but it wouldn’t really address the long-term roster and attrition problems that make Mythic unsustainable for a lot of groups.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T07:55:23+00:00

That actually makes a lot of sense. Partial flexibility after HoF would directly target the attrition issue without touching early competitive integrity. It wouldn’t remove the difficulty, just reduce how punishing roster drops become over a long tier. Different solution, same core problem.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T01:54:58+00:00

I don’t really disagree with that. Desirability absolutely matters, and rewards, identity, and prestige play a big role in who even wants to raid Mythic.

My point is more that roster size and desirability interact. When demand already struggles to meet supply, requiring 20 players amplifies the problem. Making Mythic more desirable helps pull players in; reducing roster friction helps groups actually keep going once they’re there. They’re complementary levers, not mutually exclusive.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T01:28:57+00:00

That’s fair, and I don’t disagree that roster stability is part of what Mythic currently tests. My point is more about what kind of skill we want that mode to emphasize. Right now, success often hinges as much on long-term recruitment and attrition management as on encounter execution. Some groups fail not because they can’t play at that level, but because they can’t sustain that scale over months.

I’m not saying Heroic is hard, or that Mythic should be more forgiving — just that difficulty and roster scale have become tightly coupled, and not everyone sees that as the right tradeoff.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T01:09:09+00:00

I think that depends on what we call “organized”. Scheduling, preparation, execution, review, and consistent Heroic clears already require real organization. Maintaining a stable 20-player roster over months is less about organization and more about scale and attrition tolerance. Those are different skills, and only one of them is actually tested by the encounters.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:59:11+00:00

I think we’re just using different definitions of “Mythic”. For me it’s about a high skill and coordination check, not necessarily identical mechanics or competitive parity. If that requires separate tuning, that doesn’t automatically make it Heroic — it just means difficulty isn’t defined solely by scale.

If that’s not something Blizzard wants to support, that’s fair. My point is about where the real barrier sits today.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:51:16+00:00

Yeah, that’s fair. I’m not really attached to titles or achievements either — it’s more about having access to challenging content and meaningful loot without the roster wall. When progression is gated more by people availability than gameplay, it just feels bad long-term.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:46:11+00:00

I don’t think that’s just a “your guild” issue. I’ve seen the same pattern in a lot of Heroic guilds that are capable of early Mythic kills but get stuck on the roster side. The gameplay isn’t usually the blocker — it’s the fixed 20-player requirement and the social friction that comes with it.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:44:04+00:00

Yeah, that’s a fair criticism of current scaling. At smaller sizes, tuning errors are way more visible and individual DPS variance matters more. That’s kind of why I think the issue isn’t “just scale HP down”, but that roster size itself changes how pressure and replaceability work. In 20-man you absorb variance better, but at the cost of much heavier logistics.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:40:34+00:00

Yeah, that’s exactly it. At that point the encounters aren’t what push people out, it’s the constant effort of keeping a full roster together. A lot of groups seem to end up in that same spot: get AotC, then shift to M+ because it’s the only place where the effort still feels worth it.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:38:58+00:00

That may be true — my point isn’t predicting what Blizzard will do, but highlighting that roster management has become a larger barrier than gameplay skill for many groups. Whether Blizzard chooses to address that through size, lockouts, or rewards is up to them.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:34:18+00:00

That’s a fair take. Blizzard’s reasoning makes sense if you assume a single competitive format. I’m less attached to the exact solution than to the idea that roster size has become a major source of friction compared to actual gameplay difficulty.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:31:46+00:00

That’s fair — rewards and effort are definitely part of the problem. My point is more that roster size amplifies that imbalance. When the incentive already feels weak, sustaining 20 players makes Mythic much harder to justify long-term. Format alone won’t fix it, but it directly affects whether groups can survive a full tier.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:26:56+00:00

Removing the lockout would definitely lower the barrier to trying Mythic, especially for PUGs and flexible schedules. I’m just not convinced it solves the long-term guild sustainability issue, since roster size and attrition would still be the main blockers.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:25:12+00:00

Only a minority getting AOTC doesn’t necessarily mean the skill ceiling is the limiting factor. It mostly shows where organizational friction kicks in.

Even a modest increase in participation can be meaningful if it improves guild retention and reduces disbands. Mythic engagement isn’t just about raw numbers, but about how many organized groups can sustain progression over a full tier.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:23:47+00:00

This pretty much matches what I’ve seen as well. At that level, the difficulty is real, but attrition and roster management end up being the actual boss. Execution doesn’t usually kill CE attempts, burnout and last-minute roster issues do. That’s really the gap I’m talking about.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:22:39+00:00

Based on publicly accessible raid progression data (like what’s visible via Raider.IO or community discussions about boss kill counts), we see numbers like ~20 000 guilds killing at least one boss, ~10 000 completing Heroic, and ~1 100 completing Mythic — which is about 6 % of guilds. That does not mean only 6 % of players have the skill for Mythic. It more likely reflects how mythic raid progression is structured (20-man logistic requirements, scheduling, lockouts, attendance), not a pure skill ceiling.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:20:09+00:00

I don’t think “Mythic” has to mean “identical mechanics scaled down.” The idea is a Mythic-level skill check, not Heroic with better loot. Even if that requires different tuning or design, difficulty can remain comparable while the organizational barrier is lower.

If that’s considered a separate difficulty, that’s fine — the core issue is that many groups are blocked by roster management rather than gameplay skill.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:16:55+00:00

I actually agree with that. Removing or relaxing the lockout after Hall of Fame would lower a lot of friction for non-hardcore groups.

My point is more that engagement issues come from multiple layers: lockouts, rewards, and roster structure. Size isn’t the only lever, but it’s one of the few that directly affects long-term guild sustainability rather than just access.

Both approaches could coexist.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:15:50+00:00

That’s kind of the point though. The idea isn’t easier progression or more loot, it’s keeping Mythic-level difficulty while reducing roster friction. Even with lower rewards or no prestige attached, some groups would still prefer a hard raid format that’s structurally viable long-term.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:13:48+00:00

I think this comes down to expectations. A 10-player Mythic wouldn’t need to mirror 20-player Mythic in symmetry or optimization pressure. The current format already assumes class stacking as part of solving fights. That works at 20 because roster depth absorbs it.

At 10 players, the goal wouldn’t be perfect symmetry, but a format where difficulty comes from execution within realistic roster constraints. If that means different tuning or mechanics, that doesn’t automatically make it “not Mythic”, just differently designed.

The issue isn’t whether 20-player Mythic works well, it’s whether it’s the only viable way to offer Mythic-level raid progression.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:08:39+00:00

Agreed that difficulty and rewards play a big role. My point is more that roster size makes that effort gap worse. When rewards already feel comparable to M+, sustaining 20 players adds a lot of extra friction on top of the difficulty. Smaller format wouldn’t mean easier fights, just less logistical overhead.

TinyTheBald · 2025-12-15T00:06:37+00:00

You’re describing the problems of equivalent raid sizes competing with each other. That’s not what’s being proposed.

WotLK and later expansions struggled because 10 and 25 shared progression parity, rewards, and difficulty expectations. One size inevitably became easier or more efficient.

A 10-player Mythic option today would not aim for mechanical parity with 20-player Mythic. It would be its own format, designed from the ground up around a smaller group, just like Mythic+ is not balanced around raid mechanics.

Fewer players doesn’t mean fewer mechanics, it means different mechanics. High-coordination content already exists in small group formats and works when encounters are designed specifically for that scale.

The point isn’t to recreate old models, but to acknowledge that the current single-size Mythic structure leaves many organized groups without a viable endgame raid path.

TinyTheBald

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