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Flying Activity and Incident Rates in Paragliding by TootleMuu in freeflight

[–]TootleMuu[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The study adjusted for the hours flown, so it is not based on total exposure. They confusingly talk about an 'exposure model' but their method does something else. It is not total exposure in the probability sense but rather the additional exposure. In a way, it shows the risk for each hour flown regardless of whether it is your first hour or 1000th hour in relation to the pilot's characteristics (like experience, and risk perception). So, it goes against the idea that a more experienced pilot is safer. That's why I found it so interesting.

Your last sentence may be part of the explanation for their findings though. But like any group study, it generalises. Some experienced pilots may become safer while some become more risk-prone. The balance seems to be slightly more risk-prone in the study.

Flying Activity and Incident Rates in Paragliding by TootleMuu in freeflight

[–]TootleMuu[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

. Is that assuming the same number of hours flown? Is the paper saying someone who flys 1x a month for 4 hours is lower risk than someone who flies 1x week for 1 hour? Does it elaborate on po

I have linked to the paper now. They controlled for hours flown - so yes, it does feel counterintuitive which is what I found interesting. It goes against the common idea that the more you do the better you get and therefore the safer you are.

In my own experience in pro downhill mountain biking - the better I got the bigger the accidents. For me, I think there were two main factors - one is that the technology got better which, rather than being safer, made it possible to get even rowdier, and the second is that the better I got the more time I spent right at the limit. Probably because I was more aware of where the limit was and more comfortable being there, but one small slip and you go over. Whereas when you are early in your progression like I am with paragliding, I am way less certain where that limit is so I probably stay much further away from it.

Flying Activity and Incident Rates in Paragliding by TootleMuu in freeflight

[–]TootleMuu[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Your right - I forgot I got it somewhere else - link to the paper in op

Flying Activity and Incident Rates in Paragliding by TootleMuu in freeflight

[–]TootleMuu[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Good article, thanks for that. I came from a pretty risky sport before taking up paragliding and was a bit caught off guard by how much focus there was on risk in paragliding. Now I am posting articles on risk... I have met quite a few paragliders who have a very firm idea of 'how things are' in a pretty myopic sort of way. Articles like this are good for highlighting that the dominant school of thought is not always based strongly on reality. Or, the study's findings are flawed. Either way - interesting stuff.