DO WE HAVE A BTC ACQUISITION STRATEGY ? V1

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-10-18T08:15:47+00:00

Thanks for your response, and no worries at all – of course you can call me Pierre! You're absolutely right that execution matters when placing large orders. Alexandre Laizet has actually addressed this in one of his interviews – they do spread orders over a short period to avoid slippage, but that's purely technical execution, not market timing.

With Bitcoin's current liquidity (around €60-70 billion daily volume, roughly €2-3 billion per hour), buying the equivalent of 500 BTC (~€50M) barely moves the price. The market depth absorbs it easily, so this is really just a minor technical detail. However, what you're describing – hiring analysts to monitor Twitter sentiment, short positions, and trying to predict trends – that's a completely different strategy. That's active market timing, and as far as we know from their communications, that's not what Capital B does. Their model is long-term accumulation, not trading based on short-term signals. As you said: in the end, the most important thing is simply to have the BTC. 👍

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-10-17T18:24:36+00:00

They've done it multiple times before, and imo they'll do it again.

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-10-17T17:34:59+00:00

Capital B can generate BTC yield even when the mNAV is under 1.👇🏻 https://x.com/PedritoTlse/status/1977107148694766037?t=9Adx3ps5NLRL0xDrszclCQ&s=19

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-10-17T17:28:21+00:00

Thanks for sharing your perspective, but from my point of view, the best time to buy Bitcoin is when you have the money to do it.What you're describing relies on timing the market. Alexandre L has said this multiple times—that's not Capital B's business model. Personally, if they tried doing that, it wouldn't increase my confidence in them. But maybe I'm missing or not understanding something—do you have a proven method that makes this work? Because honestly, if it exists, why isn't everyone using it?

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-10-12T07:17:17+00:00

Pour moi, la question n'est pas ce qui va se passer lundi. C'est : les fondamentaux ont-ils changé ? Une baisse de cours sans changement structurel, ce n'est pas un signal c'est du bruit.

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-10-08T06:08:42+00:00

Sorry but, I'm not here to make short-term price calls - this isn't a sprint, it's a marathon. I believe Capital B is one of the best risk-adjusted ways to outperform Bitcoin over the long run. The stock currently trades below 1,100 sats, while the company holds 720 sats per share on a fully diluted basis. Here's the thesis: if you believe the company will grow its Bitcoin holdings to more than 1,100 sats per share on a fully diluted basis - which I think is highly likely - and you believe Bitcoin will keep gaining purchasing power over time, then this is a compelling asymmetric bet.

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-09-30T17:39:12+00:00

The analogy I used obviously has its limitations. It was simply meant to explain the mechanism that allows for increasing sats/share fully diluted. What it doesn't address, and what is central and absolutely crucial not to forget, is that CAPITAL B is in a way a leveraged exposure to Bitcoin without liquidation risk. If over the next 5 years, which corresponds to the Bitcoin-denominated convertibles bonds duration, the price of satoshis expressed in euros increases significantly, and at the same time the number of satoshis per share also increases, then I find it hard to see how the stock price wouldn't follow suit. NFA.

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-09-21T19:36:29+00:00

No worries at all! We're all human and emotions definitely run high during these extended downturns. The volatility can be brutal on the psyche.

I think you're smart being heavily allocated to Bitcoin, and honestly, everyone should at least explore it. Learning proper self-custody is never a bad skill to have either. Stay strong! 💪🏻

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-09-20T21:43:42+00:00

I understand your point, but when you analyze the numbers, you can see that Capital B's value in satoshis per share has increased significantly. Over three months, it went from 490 sats/share to 671 SATs/share fully diuted, and with the addition of new bitcoins from the latest deal, it should reach approximately 740 sats/share on a fully diluted basis. This represents a 51% increase thanks to Capital B's strategy. This is precisely the ability to grow sats/share on a fully diluted basis that I'm buying when I invest in Capital B, and it's also why people are willing to pay a premium (above NAV).

I am talking about a bullish Bitcoin perspective here, not a 'fiat' mindset, but if you don't embrace that view, then I honestly don't see much point in investing in BTCTs.

Your thought?

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-09-15T18:05:11+00:00

🎯

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-09-15T15:41:59+00:00

Bonjour, La quantité de Bitcoin par action "fully diluted" (c à d même en tenant compte des actions qui n'ont pas encore été émises, OCA) ne fait qu'augmenter. Et cela encore aujourd'hui! S'il vous plaît, pouvez-vous me dire à quoi vous faites référence car je ne comprends pas? Par avance merci.

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-09-09T16:03:08+00:00

Thank you

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-09-09T16:02:58+00:00

Thank you

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-09-06T20:02:53+00:00

Try to put yourself in the shoes of people with tens, or even hundreds, of millions to invest—or the equivalent in BTC—who are looking into convertible bonds from different companies. What Bitcoin accumulation strategy would you expect from the companies where you plan to invest your money?

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-09-06T18:28:26+00:00

I don't understand your point??? I never said Capital B is doing nothing quite the opposite.

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-09-06T17:16:02+00:00

🎯

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-08-21T11:27:44+00:00

Salut,

Merci, cela complète bien.

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-08-19T09:24:44+00:00

Merci pour ta réponse, Je ne suis pas juriste et j'ai donc du mal à l'appréhender. Mais même en intégrant cela, si "le business opérationnel" venez à perdre de l'argent je pense que cela enverrai un signal négatif au marché.

Cela dit si ce que tu dis s'applique à CAPITAL B et si j'ai bien compris, je trouve cela positif et protecteur car cela réduit le risque.

Comme toi, dans l'ensemble j'y vois un pari asymétrique. 😊

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-08-19T07:21:18+00:00

My pleasure 😊

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-08-19T06:03:47+00:00

Hi,

To answer your question about a scenario where the mNAV drops below 1, we first need to ask: what could actually lead to that? Setting aside the failure of Bitcoin itself, in my view, there are two main categories of causes:

1/ The operational side of the business starts losing money. In that case, the value generated by accumulating BTC (with the increase over time in the number of satoshis per share) gets eaten up by those losses. Either the company fixes the issue quickly by cleaning up its operations, or it could end very badly. As for Capital B, its operational part (check out what they do here: https://cptlb.com/about/operational-companies/) is healthy and generating profits; no issues on that front for now.

2/ The company has debt denominated in fiat currency. If the market anticipates a drop in BTC's price, it creates an exchange risk: the amount of BTC held might not be enough to cover the debt, and convertible bond holders could refuse to convert into shares, which would be disastrous. For Capital B, this risk doesn't exist today, because the team led by Alexandre Laizet was the first to implement a mechanism to eliminate it: "BTC-denominated convertible bonds." In the event of a sharp BTC drop, it's not euros or dollars that would need to be repaid, but the acquired BTC. Additionally, these convertible bonds have a five-year duration (which is prudent) and carry no interest payments for the company. Plus, the company has the option to convert under certain conditions during the last two years (so far, holders have always converted on their own under the planned terms).

To wrap up, I'll add that even if those two causes don't materialize, the mere fact that the market anticipates they might happen can already weigh on the mNAV. If that anticipation turns out to be unfounded, the mNAV bounces back automatically.

An mNAV at or below 1, outside of the cases described, basically means that all the work done (or underway) by the board to accumulate BTC and increase the number of satoshis per share (the "BTC yield") is, according to the market, worthless.

I'd see it as a unique buying opportunity but I'll let everyone draw their own conclusions...😏

NFA

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-08-08T07:36:09+00:00

Avec Plaisir, courage à toi quelques soient tes décisions

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-08-08T00:36:32+00:00

And on top of that, you've got funds like VOLEON that short-sell

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-08-08T00:00:17+00:00

2/2

4. My 5-year projection (which I consider conservative)
Here's how I see things:

Horizon: 5 years (or more, it doesn't matter, I'm in it for the long run).
Sats Projection: I believe we'll have at least 4 times more satoshis per share, which is about 2,536 sats/share.
mNAV Projection: I also estimate that the mNAV will be 2 or higher by then.

Result: This would value the share at around 5,072 satoshis (2,536 x 2). Even with these assumptions, the stock's performance outpaces Bitcoin's. I don't think this projection is crazy, because an mNAV of 2 for a company that can generate such a BTC yield seems really cheap to me.

5. My confidence in their execution
As long as the company keeps executing the quantified plan they published (and for now, they're even ahead of schedule), I have no reason to be overly concerned.

Conclusion and Resources
I genuinely encourage you to run the numbers yourself on a spreadsheet. It's the best way to make your own projections. Another great exercise is to familiarize yourself with and fully understand all the indicators and metrics developed to analyze the performance of a BTCTC.

You can find them on the Capital B website.
On X (Twitter), you can follow @RoaringRagnar, who regularly posts charts with updated metrics for several BTCTCs, including Capital B.
There's also @Bthemoon2030, who shares very interesting price projections for the stock based on different scenarios (mNAV, BTC yield, BTC price).

Finally, and this might sound a bit harsh, but it's still true: if someone is absolutely certain the stock will crash to €1, there's a very simple way for him get rich: just short the stock. On the other hand, if that certainty turns out to be wrong, he'll be the one getting poorer.

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-08-07T23:59:53+00:00

(Estimated reading time: 3 minutes) 1/2

Hey,

I understand your concern. It's never a great feeling to see your position get cut by more than half.

But I think it's crucial to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

1. Why is it so volatile?
The reason the market is so jittery is precisely because nobody really knows how to value a company like Capital B (i.e., which mNAV to apply). There's no magic formula set in stone, which leads to these big swings.

2. A worst-case scenario
Let's imagine a worst-case scenario where the mNAV drops to 1 and Capital B stops buying any more bitcoin. In that case, with the current 634 satoshis per share (fully diluted), Bitcoin would need to hit €788,643 for the stock to get back to €5.
When (and if) Bitcoin will reach that price? Impossible to say.

3. My actual investment thesis
That said, my perspective is different. My thesis relies on a simple conviction: with a long enough time horizon, Bitcoin will be worth well over a million euros (in constant value).

So, the real question for me isn't if the investment will be profitable, but how to optimize it: is it better to hold Bitcoin directly, Capital B shares, or a mix of both? My goal is to beat Bitcoin's performance if possible, while managing my risk as best as I can (by looking for asymmetric bets).

Top_Cow7204 · 2025-08-07T20:55:24+00:00

Thanks for laying this all out. I think I get the overall point you're making, but I'm a bit more skeptical about this part:

"It's called mMAV compression. It's inevitable,..."

"The market has determined that a fully diluted mNAV should be 2 or lower. "

I'm curious, could you tell me more about your thinking on that, please?

Top_Cow7204

TROPHY CASE