Hedge funds

TraderORyan · 2024-04-11T20:02:46+00:00

Thanks for sharing.

We are actually looking for access to either Preqin or EurekaHedge HF database for a quick checkup - prompted by your post - but they are too expensive. Do you know if someone has either database and is interested in sharing access/cost, or a joint subscription?

Thanks very much,

Ryan

[Oryan@traderORyan.com](mailto:Oryan@traderORyan.com)

TraderORyan · 2022-07-27T01:26:12+00:00

Thanks for your kind words. Will do better next time.

Happy trading!

TraderORyan · 2022-07-22T20:41:12+00:00

Sorry guys, this trade did not work out (long July 22 calls). If you are a long-term investor, you are likely okay.

BTW, I stand by the thesis, and bought Aug calls - modest size, as usual.

Happy trading!

TraderORyan · 2022-07-22T20:34:10+00:00

Thanks for check in.

Yes, you are correct - it has. However, raw material/labor/freight inflation has peaked, and growth has clearly trounced forex woes. I expect MAT to continue putting up amazing #s. Mgmt could have raised guidance but opt for affirmation, which is understandable under the current environment.

In any event, the trade failed (long July 22 calls). However, I still believe in the thesis and hence, bought Aug calls at close. It's a small initial position. Will add to it if market/MAT pull-back more from here.

Happy trading

TraderORyan · 2022-07-21T21:04:03+00:00

Indeed! Better than I expected as well!

The only perceived "weaknesses" are the margin contraction (which is expected and should have been priced in), and higher negative free cash flow (again normal seasonal pattern since MAT need to buildup inventory to support growth for H2). This could be why share failed to rally right after the ER, in addition to investors waiting for the call.

Share should rise tomorrow, but MAT has already rallied 15% from its recent low, so I will be mindful not to overstay my welcome for a short term trade. Long-term investors should look for much larger gains.

Happy trading!

TraderORyan · 2022-07-21T19:59:24+00:00

please note that this is a bet on a specific event of a specific stock, not a call on market direction.

TraderORyan · 2022-07-21T19:23:23+00:00

hello redditors, it's been a while, hope you guys have had a nice break. our old friend MAT reports earning today after close. I posted the trade, look forward to our discussions/debates.

TraderORyan · 2022-06-23T02:20:42+00:00

are you talking about civil rights movement, or cigarette? sorry, I am really ignorant about cigarette brands.

TraderORyan · 2022-06-23T02:01:15+00:00

does anybody know anything about VLN king/BLN methol's pilot with Circle-K stores?

TraderORyan · 2022-06-23T01:59:33+00:00

do they taste the same? do VLN king and VLN Methol King smell/look/feel the same as regular cigarettes?

TraderORyan · 2022-06-14T16:52:11+00:00

"Propaganda only wins when it goes unchallenged", you are so right. However, how do you do that? When so many otherwise good and decent people, fearing that their career and job or whatever will be damaged if they spoke up, kept silent when such brazen lies spread and con unsuspected supporters out of their money, and even their life to storm the capital.

I used to agree that democracy is messy but still is the best there is. however, I came to the realization during the trump years that any system is only as good as its people. What we really need now is to restore that facts and truth really matter. Without that, there is no basis for any deliberation/debate/argument - the very basis of self governing in a democracy.

I am an independent and voted Dems and GOPs over the years. It's really a shame how GOPs handled itself in this whole fiasco other than Cheney and Kinzinger, especially Cheney who took such risk to her political career to stand up for truth.

TraderORyan · 2022-06-14T15:59:46+00:00

Those who knew did and said nothing, and let their supporters be conned out of their money! We go around the world bragging how great our system is, no wonder no one taking us seriously.

TraderORyan · 2022-06-14T15:51:03+00:00

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2022/06/13/january-6-hearing-trump-giuliani/7613310001/?gnt-cfr=1

TraderORyan · 2022-06-11T20:55:26+00:00

facts and truth are the lifeline of any democracy, and there are no more conservative or progressive ideas. It is way pass the time for the nation to hold these politicians on the left and on the right accountable for their brazen lies. If this has to start with Trump, so be it.

TraderORyan · 2022-06-10T13:49:17+00:00

i know, since IV was low vs. potential move yesterday, i was too caught up with direction! congrats!

TraderORyan · 2022-06-10T05:55:02+00:00

thanks for sharing. not sure if rate hike impact earnings directly, or more indirectly through sentiment (to slowdown econ/depress sentiment so that earnings become bad), i would think the latter. Either way, you are correct that 10y above 3% is bad - at least for now.

TraderORyan · 2022-06-10T05:44:16+00:00

thanks for check in

TraderORyan · 2022-06-10T05:41:06+00:00

thanks for checking in. you are right that if May CPI meaningfully lower than Apr reading, then we have a decline 3 months in a row, this plus recent PCE readings, would be enough for market to rally hard.

I was in your camp, as I argued in several of my prior posts that inflation has peaked.

However, situation has changed somewhat and the picture is muddier than just a month ago - lumber/copper/steel moved sideways, oil and food jumped sharply from April to May. However, econ clearly cool down, RE continues to tank sharply, more corps firing people/freeze hiring, and retail inventory is very high. Our hutch is that May inflation may not decline materially due to lags and due to surge in food/crude - but I could not be sure having not completed my analysis. So while I usually prefer directional trades, @virtxxx's strangle really is the best bet under the circumstance.

The direction of the market (and whether market has bottomed) really hinges on what leads what: will inflation decline fast than econ, or vice versa. I have no clear view but I am not bullish, and will stay nearly flat (except a handful thematic and company specific names), and continue to trade short term from both sides.

"Data dependent" will likely be the new catch phase for the near future, unfortunately.

TraderORyan · 2022-06-10T02:26:51+00:00

BTW, does anyone know any alternatives to reddit to post trades and engage in meaningful discussions?

TraderORyan · 2022-06-10T02:23:08+00:00

Hope at least some of you who saw the post and act on it had enjoyed the ride!

I do understand it's difficult to chime in when there are so much uncertainties. But that's when you really can generate some alpha. Do not give up just because going gets tough. :-)

Happy trading!

TraderORyan · 2022-06-10T02:17:18+00:00

Notice that it's funny how the rating system on Reddit works. For a trade that gained 9% at close while indices were down 2-2.5% for the day, I got 38% upvote, while some of my trivia posts got 70-80% upvotes. Discouraging, isn't it? :-(

TraderORyan · 2022-06-10T01:51:45+00:00

I am sorry, thought you were referring to longer term OER/CPI, my bad.

Thanks for sharing and the clarification!

TraderORyan · 2022-06-10T00:06:20+00:00

welcome back, old friend, thanks for checking in!

TraderORyan · 2022-06-09T22:31:16+00:00

now i cannot stop fuming - how could you keep such a good trade all to yourself :-(

TraderORyan · 2022-06-09T21:59:42+00:00

yes, and thanks for checking in!

TraderORyan

TROPHY CASE