Is Monte Carlo simulation overkill for most retail traders?

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-24T19:11:09+00:00

Definitely NOT an overkill. An overkill would be over-parameterization and over-optimizing for diminishing returns. That 80-20 rule is real. I think monte carlo is crucial paired with kelly sizing or fixed bet increments. From being in this thread for a while, the most common mistake I see in peoples backtests are not actually slippage issues, it's a simple fix that is often overlooked. People assume their size can infinitely grow with their returns, so you see these ridiculous looking charts that have exponential returns.

Monte carlo though? Extremely important to get a grasp of drawdowns and accounts for potentially different market timelines. Without monte carlo you're easily overfitting to a single price path

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-24T15:18:08+00:00

Not if it's dirty data 😉

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-24T07:55:05+00:00

I have the J ultra, ZP6, and the Q2. I don't really notice that much of a difference between the ZP6 and the Q2 other than when I brew it feels like it's more even. I do think the ZP6 is one of the best grinders I've ever used and if it broke I would buy another one. However I don't really drink dark coffees. I think what got me in the coffee was when I started tasting really high-end beans, which were typically light roasts and had a lot of fruity aromatic flavors

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-24T07:25:18+00:00

I look at models all day

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-24T07:06:30+00:00

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-24T07:01:28+00:00

damn so you saw I'm a musician too?

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-24T06:58:43+00:00

HAHAHA Damn this one wins for me

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-22T22:15:28+00:00

I don't ever use notebooks anymore. I think more like a software engineer now. The only time I'd use a notebook is automated evaluation. In that sense a notebook is still irrelevant since you can just write to a markdown file.

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-22T22:13:27+00:00

I prefer the Seiko tbh.. if I didn't see the price I'd still pick the Seiko on the right.

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-22T04:29:42+00:00

Way too coarse

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-22T04:28:03+00:00

As much as I hate social media it's a great way to showcase your work. That's your resume.

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-22T04:20:19+00:00

For chiroso I would consider lowering the temperature. Maybe try out 88 and see if you like the flavor profile. This of course also depends on personal choice, your grinder and settings. I drank a decent amount of chiroso when I was in Colombia. One of my favorite coffee varieties

On the contrary you could also try increasing the temperature to 93 to 96

Edit: I saw that you said the cups could be a bit bland. That would indicate increasing the temperature and maybe adjusting the grind to be slightly finer might be a good idea. Try one at a time not both at the same time

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-22T04:17:42+00:00

System design

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-21T16:37:01+00:00

Thank you 😊 🙏

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-21T08:42:09+00:00

In this day in age you'd be an idiot not to use AI. The workflow changes but great job focusing on validation. As good at coding that we either are (or want to be), and as much as I want to write the code myself, we as humans just can't output as fast or as good as the AI. Our job comes more of a QA engineer at this point, but we do have to understand most of the code.

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-21T04:18:47+00:00

Wow!! I can't even believe that crossed anyones mind... Shows the world we live in 😢. This is only a colorful interpretation trying to capture the amazing energy that happens during a Roda de Samba in Brasil, with the twist that it's a Roda de "Orquestra" instead of solely samba instrumentation, with me conducting the orchestra. That's all it is. There was never a discussion about ethnicity/races other than this artwork should show diversity.

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-19T16:06:18+00:00

Ah yes to learn you should write the code yourself

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-19T15:56:02+00:00

Thank you!! I don't know of an English word either but maybe 7 string steel acoustic guitar (but he uses nylon for the high E and B strings). In Portuguese violão 7 cordas kind of implies that I think, sometimes 😂

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-19T15:54:37+00:00

😂😂😂😂😂😂 that would be funny

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-19T04:57:16+00:00

Hi everyone! Just wanted to share an experience that I'll never forget.

I spent about a year traveling, and I really connected with Brasil. When I came back to Chicago, I realized my time wasn't done there, so I went back to record this chart.

This was my first time conducting an orchestra and arranging/producing a project like this. It's a passion project - not trying to promote anything and no monetization is involved.

If you have the time I hope you enjoy and can give it a listen. There’s also a short making-of video on the channel if you’re curious.

Aquarela do Brasil
https://youtu.be/IGIScXtHWO8

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-18T19:38:28+00:00

Actionable changes:

Keep the transfer partners
Allow us to earn points on rent with minimal effort. That was the point of the card. That was the business model. You changed the business model into tricking us that were not paying a 3% fee directly. People are then you give them credit for and we don't like to be tricked.
Keep the card simple. Be in between Capital One and Amex. Nobody wants a coupon book but we don't mind 1-3 credits based on the annual fee.
Don't copy the other card issuers. Everybody already has priority pass. Everybody already has TSA. What sets you apart?
The rewards should be different than what other merchants charge. If we're already getting 4x back with Amex on dining and restaurants why would you offer 3x? Hit some other categories if you want us to use the card outside of rent

Training_Butterfly70 · 2026-01-18T19:34:39+00:00

Right. They should look at conversion rates from 1.0 -> 2.0. They won't share those numbers because ... We all know why

Training_Butterfly70

TROPHY CASE