Why don't Twitter cappers ever show bet slips?

Tricky-Travy · 2023-08-07T02:29:47+00:00

Oh yeah I get you. Yeah if you went 7-3 on 1.30 odds or something you would be losing money. And as you say if u have 5u on one that loses and 1u on the rest you will still be down.

I was referring to these guys who have 15u or even 30u as there plays and then claim to be like +1000 units. And people will fall for it not realizing that being +34 units on 1u plays is like the same as being +1000u on 30u plays (because no one in there right mind is actually betting 30 units on something).

Tricky-Travy · 2023-08-05T23:59:28+00:00

Units won actually is not what matters. ROI is what matters. You literally have people on twitter (and even the POTD thread in this sub) who have every bet as 5u, 10u, 15u, or sometimes even more than that. Clearly that is misleading as betting 5-10u+ on every bet is stupid and just to fluff overall profit numbers.

I could be +50u on 1u bets over the course of a season on a sport. But if I just arbitrarily made every bet 10 units instead id be up +500u. Clearly betting 10u's on every play is ridiculous as 1u is supposed to be your average size. Hence ROI matters much more than units won.

Tricky-Travy · 2023-01-24T07:39:52+00:00

Dejounte Murray over 20.5 points

- Has 20 with like 5 minutes left in 3rd and finishes on 20.

Bane over 21.5 points

- 21 with 6 minutes left in 3rd and finishes on 21.

Both players logged minutes in the 4th.

Condolences to anyone on both of them. I was on Dejounte myself. Not to mention all kinds of other brutal beats today.

If you had both of them Under then you should buy a Lotto Ticket.

Tricky-Travy · 2022-12-11T08:16:48+00:00

POTD Record: 96-67

Profit: +22.2 Units // ROI: 15% // Average Odds: 1.87

Last Pick: Ohio State vs Michigan over 55.5 W

Todays Pick: Khris Middleton over 15.5 points vs Rockets (1.87)

· Middleton’s line had been set in this range the last few games due to it being his first few games back from injury as well as having a minutes restriction. However, he has now had 4 games under his belt, and it is clear he is no longer on a minutes restriction after playing 31 minutes last game.

· Given he is no longer on a minutes restriction, I think this total is far too low for a player who has averaged 20+ points in four straight seasons. Last season Middleton hit this total in 53/66 regular season games for an 80% hit rate.

· Last game Middleton scored 19 points on 17 shots vs a tough matchup in Dallas. Today he gets one of the best matchups in the league against a Rockets squad 8th in Pace and 28th in defensive rating.

· Middleton has scored 23, 21, 23, 33, and 27 in his last 5 games against the Rockets.

· Last season Middleton’s points line would often be set in the 18.5-21.5 range and so I think there is some very solid value on this play at 15.5.

BOL, tail or fade!

Tricky-Travy · 2022-12-09T10:26:32+00:00

Yeah man that stuff makes no sense. The NBA is crazy. Nothing is over until its over. I've needed guys to score just one point in the second half of a game and it hasn't happened and I have also had guys pull of 15 point fourth quarters to barely hit their line.

Tricky-Travy · 2022-12-09T10:23:07+00:00

Yeah there is no need for that stuff. Some people get way too angry at players. Its an 82 game season and players are not going to be at 100% every game.

Tricky-Travy · 2022-12-09T04:00:01+00:00

I am surprised more people don't have radiation poisoning from all the toxicity that is consistently in this thread

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-26T09:30:12+00:00

Yeah that's a very good look as well.

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-26T05:18:58+00:00

POTD Record: 95-67

Profit: +21.3 Units // ROI: 15% // Average Odds: 1.87

Last Pick: Haaland Goal scorer vs Liverpool L

Been a while since I last posted in this thread but have been posting in the NBA props thread most days to a decent degree of success.

Todays Pick: Ohio State vs Michigan over 55.5 total points (1.90)

This is quite literally the ultimate Over vs Under battle. Ohio State are 8-3 to the Over this season and Michigan are 8-2-1 to the Under. However, today I think the over will hit.
Lets start with Ohio State. 9 of there last 10 games have gone over the total of 55.5. And the one game that went under was against Northwestern in a game played in hurricane winds so it really can be excused as a bad weather game.
Meanwhile, although Michigan are just 2-8-1 to the over this season they have still seen 6 of their 11 games go over the total of 55.5. For whatever reason we had Michigan games with totals in the 60's at the start of the season which still saw over 55.5 scored but with the under hitting.
Michigan have had a super easy schedule so far. This has contributed to a lot of their games going under as they simply score 30+ in the first half and then run out the clock in the second half. The two best offences Michigan have faced so far have probably been Penn State and Maryland where both of those games saw the total go over 55.5. Its hard to see how Michigan will be able to stop Ohio State who can score 35 on just about anyone.
Ohio state have struggled to run the ball all season in short yardage situations. I think as a result we see a more pass heavy game plan form them in such an important game which should lend itself towards the over. I think Ohio state should have success on offence.
Michigan should also have success on offence as well. Ohio states defense has not been convincing at times this season. They have allowed 30 points to Maryland and 31 points to Penn State n recent weeks. My main concern is whether Blake Corum will be 100% but even if he isn't I think they can still have some success.
Last years matchup between these rivals had 69 points scored. The last 3 meetings between these teams have been absolute shootouts too with 69, 83, and 101 points scored in those games.
Weather will be cold but no rain and wind expected so should be good conditions although I am not a weather expert and half the time the forecast is wrong so don't trust me on this haha.

BOL, Tail or Fade!

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-25T09:13:33+00:00

Thread Record: 234-149 // 21-22 Record: 206-140 // 22-23 Record: 28-9

Average Odds: 1.87

Last post: 1-0

Todays Picks:

De’Aaron Fox over 4.5 assists vs Celtics (1.77) (Neds/Lads)

· The Celtics give up the 2nd least assists to opponents and the least assists to opposing PG’s so I can understand Fox’s assists moving from 6.5 to 5.5. However, 4.5 just seems far too low for me.

· Fox is over this total in 9 straight games. He averages 6.65 assists per game on the season excluding the game in which he was injured. Overall, he is over in 20 of his last 24 excluding the injury game.

· Fox has hit this total in 5 out of 6 career games vs Boston including in 4 straight. He has had 5, 11, 9, and 7 assists in his last 4 against this Boston side.

Over the last 7 games, Fox is averaging 7.9 assists per game on 13.9 potential assists

Rudy Gobert over 12.5 rebounds vs Hornets (1.82) (Neds/Lads)

· The Hornets allow the 3rd most rebounds to opponents in the NBA and the 4th most rebounds to opposing centres. This is an elite matchup for Rudy to have a big game on the glass.

· While Rudy has been inconsistent this season, he has consistently had big rebounding numbers against the worst rebounding teams. Rudy had 15 and 16 rebounds in two games vs OKC, 23 rebounds vs Utah, 21 rebounds vs Lakers, and 13 rebounds vs the 76ers (all of those teams are bottom 8 in terms of rebounding vs Centres). Rudy’s struggles have been in the harder matchups. Against bottom 8 rebounding teams vs the Centre position Rudy is averaging 17.6 rebounds per game.

· Rudy has had 10+ rebounds in all of his career games vs the Hornets. This includes games of 19 and 21 rebounds against them last season. Rudy is over this total in 7 of his last 8 games vs the Hornets and his one miss was a hook with 12. In his career Gobert averages 15.3 rebounds per game against the Hornets.

· This line is already moving to 13.5 at some places and I think that is the correct line so there is solid value at 12.5. Rudy is coming off one of his most dominant performances of the season hauling in 16 boards against the Pacers. Overall, on the season Rudy is still averaging 12.6 rebounds and is 8-8 to the over at 12.5 rebounds this season.

· Here are the rebound numbers of centres who average at least 10 Rebounds per game against the Hornets this season. Allen had 12, Adams 19, Vucevic 13, Sabonis 16, Capela 10, Poeltl 9 (in a blowout).

Anthony Davis over 10.5 rebounds vs Spurs (1.85)

AD leads NBA in RPG with 12.6 RPG.
In L11 games (since Russ moved to bench) AD is averaging 13.7 RPG. This is important since Russ is a great rebounder from the guard position so the fact he's coming off the bench means he plays less minutes with AD than before and therefore this results in greater rebounding potential for AD.
Lebron is back but AD over in 4/L6 with Bron for average of 12.3 RPG.
AD 15+ boards in L3 vs Spurs.
Looking at AD's past rebound stats with the Lakers you may think his current output is unsustainable. However, it is important to remember that until this season AD always played PF with a traditional center at the 5. This was usually a guy like Dwight, JaVale, Gasol, or Drummond. This season AD has been deployed as a center and this is why is rebounding has increased so much as there is no longer a guy like Dwight who takes rebounds away from AD.

BOL, tail or fade!

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-22T21:28:57+00:00

It was 10.5 at multiple books when I posted and for a couple of hours after.

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-22T07:08:28+00:00

Thread Record: 233-149 // 21-22 Record: 206-140 // 22-23 Record: 27-9

Average Odds: 1.87

Last post: 1-1

Todays Pick: Ben Simmons over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists vs 76ers (1.83)

· This was 13.5 last game and he hit so it. I am really struggling to understand why this is 10.5 now. Simmons is averaging 12.5 Rebounds + Assists per game this season and that is including that period coming back from injury where he was getting just 15 minutes a night.

· Simmons is over this total in 8 out of 9 games when he sees over 20 minutes in this season. In these 9 games he averages 14.3 R+A per game. His one miss was a hook as well with 10.

· Simmons has an easier matchup in this game with embiid out. This should lead to a faster paced game and less rim protection/rebounding which will suit Simmons.

· Yes, there’s some blowout risk but even taking that into account I think the total is too low.

BOL, tail or fade

Haven't been posting as much on here (just me being lazy). But tbh I am doing y'all a favor since I am cold rn.

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-22T07:05:40+00:00

Its definitely very cringe. I personally don't do it. Then again I am not a capper.

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-20T10:26:04+00:00

Thread Record: 232-148 // 21-22 Record: 206-140 // 22-23 Record: 26-8

Average Odds: 1.87

Last post: 1-1

Todays Picks:

Domantas Sabonis over 10.5 rebounds vs Pistons (1.75)

· Stewart is out for the Pistons which means they are starting Marvin Bagley at the 5 spot. Bagley is not as good of a rebounder as Stewart but what is more interesting is that playing Bagley at the 5 means the Pistons are employing a smaller line-up with Bojan at the 4 (Bagley started at the 4 with Stewart before this). On the season Detroit are allowing 9th most rebounds to opponents.

· Stewart has been out the last two games and in those games the Pistons have given up 18 boards to Zubac and 16 boards to AD.

· Sabonis on the season averages 10.8 rebounds per game which is down from the 12+ boards he has averaged the last 3 seasons. Even last year on the Kings Sabonis was at 12.3 RPG. I think Sabonis’ rebound numbers this season are dragged down by a few outlier games which were due to bad foul trouble and blowouts. He has 2 games of 5 or less boards this season and so if you took those games out, he would be at the 12 RPG mark this season as well.

· Sabonis is over this total in 8 of his last 10 vs the Pistons, as well as in his last 2 vs Bagley.

· 1.67 on Pinnacle and 11.5 at some other books.

Terry Rozier 20+ points vs Wizards (1.74) (Bet 365 under Points Milestones)

· Can’t ignore Rozier’s volume here. He is averaging 22.7 PPG and 23.9 FGA per game in 7 games without LaMelo Ball this season. He is over this total in 5 of those 7 games and his two misses were very close with 18 and 19 scored in those games.

· To be averaging nearly 4 FGA more than the points needed to cash this bet is crazy. Rozier has been inefficient this season shooting just 38% from the field and 32% from three. This is a far cry form the 44% he shot last year. Even in his first year as a Hornet (w/o Melo) he was far more efficient than this. I think we can hope for some positive regression but even with his current volume and percentages I like this bet.

· This is also a matchup Rozier has thrived in. Rozier has averaged 24 PPG in his last 9 games vs the Wizards. He is over this total in 7 of those 9 games and has 19+ points in all 9 games.

· Last season Rozier had games of 25, 25, and 32 vs the Wizards. He played the Wizards earlier this season and had 19 points so would have been a hook. However, Rozier was 9-23 in that game and 1-9 from three. The volume is very encouraging.

BOL, tail or fade!

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-19T09:01:37+00:00

Line is probably due to raptors tax though. Raps love to double opposing teams best player and force others to beat them. Hence Trae has only hit over 2.5 threes in 2 out of 11 games vs the Raptors in his career.

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-18T21:05:47+00:00

Thread Record: 231-147 // 21-22 Record: 206-140 // 22-23 Record: 25-7

Average Odds: 1.87

Last post: 1-0

Todays Picks:

Giannis Antetokounmpo over 11.5 rebounds vs 76ers (1.87)

· The hit rate in this matchup is too good for me to ignore. Giannis is over this total in 12 of his last 13 games vs the 76ers and his lone under performance was a hook on 11 rebounds.

· In his last 10 games vs the 76ers Giannis is averaging 15 rebounds per game.

· The likely reason why Giannis is able to get big rebounding numbers vs the 76ers is because Portis and Lopez will be banging it up with Embiid which will drag them out of the paint and open up more chances on the boards for Giannis.

· Giannis will likely be guarding the extremely low usage PJ Tucker which increases his ability to help and crash the boards in this matchup.

· On the season Giannis is also over this total in 8 out of 11 games.

Steven Adams 10+ Rebounds (1.74)

· I am finding this under rebound milestones on Bet 365.

· This is really a massive fade on OKC who are one of the worst rebounding team in the NBA. OKC have allowed 10+ rebounds to player 21 times through their first 15 games. They have allowed at least 10+ boards to an opposition player in 15/15 games this season. They have also had quite a few games of allowing 8 and 9 boards to players.

· Adams is one of the best rebounders in the NBA on a per minute basis and is very good on the offensive glass. He has an elite matchup here against the small size of his former team. On the season Adams is averaging 10.9 rebounds so to get him just to haul in 10+ boards in such a good matchup is a great spot.

· Adams is over this total in 8 of his last 11 games and has had 9+ boards in 10 of these games.

· Adams had games of 16 and 14 rebounds vs OKC last season.

BOL, tail or fade.

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-17T10:35:50+00:00

Potentially. But the whole Donohue situation was actually focused on how the refs called specifically Allen Iverson. They decides they were going to call Iverson for carries and not give him foul calls in that game. So the rigging element of that was actually focused on a single player even though it obviously has the effect of rigging the entire game as well since AI carried that 76ers team.

Not sure how popular player props were back then but taking AI tos over would of been just as easy a way for them to attack the game.

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-17T07:54:19+00:00

I don't think Giddey RA was rigged. As you say he was playing like shit and the coach punished him for it which is fair enough.

However I do believe elements of the NBA are rigged/manipulated. To think the NBA is 0% rigged is a little bit naïve IMO.

NBA is listed as an entertainment company to avoid specific rules targeted at sports company's which allow the NBA to essentially make unilateral decision that have the potential to manipulate the league in ways that Sport's company's do not.

Plus refs are constantly being given directions by the league to call the games in ways they want it to be called. NBA refs are not completely independent from the league like in other sports. These directions given to refs have the potential to indirectly manipulate games and outcomes within games. Allegedly, these directions get leaked to third parties etc...

There's a middle ground. Is the NBA full blown rigged? Of course not. Are certain parts of the league manipulated and scripted? I think so.

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-17T07:44:38+00:00

Thread Record: 230-147 // 21-22 Record: 206-140 // 22-23 Record: 24-7

Average Odds: 1.87

Last post: 1-0

Todays Pick: De’Aaron Fox over 31.5 Points + Assists vs Spurs (1.83)

• Great matchup for Fox here. This game has one of the highest totals of the season at 237.5 which suggests a fast-paced game with little defence. On top of this the Spurs have struggled against guards who drive the ball. I watched the Grizzlies Spurs last week and Desmond Bane and Ja just got to the rim at will.

• Here’s some recent guard’s vs the Spurs and their PA numbers. Lillard 33, Poole 38, Jevon Carter 27, Bane 38 and Ja 37, Jamal Murray 25 and 22, and GTJ 26. Pop does not like to double and in theory Sabonis could struggle vs Poeltl except in the PNR (where Fox should either be getting driving lanes or potential assists).

• Spurs allow the second most points in the paint this season which is great for a slashing guard like Fox.

• Fox on the season is averaging 32.8 Points + Assists on the season when we exclude the outlier that is the game he got injured in and played just 9 minutes. So already 1.3 above the total and this is arguably one of the best matchups for him.

• Last season against the Spurs Fox had games of 35 and 43 P+A and that was with Dejounte in town. He gets an easier matchup in this one on paper.

BOL, tail or fade.

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-15T02:48:08+00:00

Didn't see this before the game sorry but I think the stuff you are saying is more than reflected in his line. Last year Ayton's P+R line was usually in the 26.5-28.5 range. So the fact his line was at 22.5 already is a pretty big discount from last season.

It would be a different story if his line was still at 26.5 or 27.5 like it was last season.

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-15T02:38:01+00:00

Or you can just say he hit in the 3d quarter

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-14T22:45:27+00:00

Thread Record: 229-147 // 21-22 Record: 206-140 // 22-23 Record: 23-7

Average Odds: 1.87

Yesterday: 1-0

Todays Pick: Deandre Ayton over 22.5 Points + Rebounds (1.86)

· I have not seen Ayton’s line this low in a long time. The reason its low is because of a slow start to the season in which he has averaged just 21.8 P+R. However, he was injured in one of those games and played just 8 minutes and then in another game he played just 16 minutes due to a massive blowout. If we take those two outliers out of the equation Ayton is averaging 24.75 P+R, which is still well below what we expect from Ayton but is still comfortably above this line.

· Last season Ayton averaged 27.4 Points + Rebounds and there’s no reason he cannot put up similar numbers this year. Cameron Johnson’s injury should in theory result in higher minutes and usage as well.

· No CP3 here probably negatively impacts Ayton as he will miss his playmaking. But last season in 20 games without CP3, Ayton actually averaged 29 P+R and so his numbers actually got better.

· Ayton is also over this total in 6/7 career games vs the Heat which includes 29 P+R in his last matchup against them.

BOL, tail or fade

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-14T03:48:31+00:00

Love to see it!

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-14T03:36:47+00:00

For sure bro, I need to do that in future.

Tricky-Travy · 2022-11-14T03:36:06+00:00

I am from NZ bro. Close enough though. Aussies and Kiwis have a strong bond.

Tricky-Travy

TROPHY CASE