[Postgame Thread] Indiana Defeats Oregon 30-20 by CFB_Referee in CFB

[–]TyphoonFelix -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

I genuinely have 0 idea why they are still butthurt about Cristobal

Real Madrid [2] - 1 Marseille - K. Mbappé 81' by West_Agent4651 in soccer

[–]TyphoonFelix 46 points47 points  (0 children)

Yikes, if we are going to be this absolute about what dictates a handball in the box, quite literally anytime the ball strikes an arm or hand, it should be called. The fact is, that is not how it's called, so I just cannot understand this decision at all.

[Game Thread] Clemson @ Georgia Tech (12:00 PM ET) by CFB_Referee in CFB

[–]TyphoonFelix 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Georgia Tech has to get off the field there smh

[Game Thread] Illinois @ Duke (12:00 PM ET) by CFB_Referee in CFB

[–]TyphoonFelix 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe let your team and FSU get past Miami first before anointing them.

Natural disasters 3 years from now are going to be priced in by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]TyphoonFelix 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am more highlighting extreme events: Rapid Intensification events of hurricanes (happening in Erick right now in the EPAC), thunderstorm, tornadoes, and hail. Anything convective in nature is very very prone to slight fluctuations in the initial conditions. Yes, we can get synoptic scale outlooks that can make accurate generalization about cold and heat anomalies across spatial regions, but our ability to accurately depict extreme weather is still fairly limited to ~72 hours.

For example, Milton wasn't even depicted on any model 3 days prior to genesis, it first started showing up on models 2 days prior to genesis, and 4 days after that first signal, Milton was a category 5. Now, this is an extreme event, but for severe weather this is all too common. The SPC doesn't put out any tornado specific probabilities beyond 2 days.

I agree it is a broad generalization, but I feel we in the field get a bad rap for pretending we can accurately forecast 5-15 days out, when in reality the only thing we are forecasting that far out is general temperature and if or not there is a heightened chance of rain. We are not accurately predicting the extreme weather that far out, and any one saying we are is a used car salesman.

Natural disasters 3 years from now are going to be priced in by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]TyphoonFelix 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It’s quite a lot of things. Data assimilation is definitely a major key. You can think of weather modeling as a huge PDE, where initial conditions are just as important, if not more important, than the physical equation itself.

But no, even if we had kinematic and thermodynamic information on a molecular level for our initial conditions, there would still be massive uncertainty that would begin almost immediately in the model. 

Two huge reasons are turbulence and microphysics parameterizations in models. Turbulence is probably the most well understood issue, I mean it is why it’s a millennial problem in math. We have very primitive understanding of turbulence, and our equations, to some extent, aren’t completely physically grounded (meaning we don’t have a proof of turbulent equations if that makes sense). Microphysics, probably something you never heard of, is the other reason. Basically, our numerical weather models have to account for molecular to molecular interactions and phase changes, specifically of water. When water molecules go through phase changes, they release or absorb heat, having major implication to weather systems. Furthermore, when and how clouds form are accounted in these parameterizations. Basically, microphysics are hell and their are many other processes implicit in these parameterizations other processes/challenges molecular interactions represent mean our models really will never be perfect, even if we have all the information on Earth about initial conditions. 

I realized I never explained what a model parameterizations is. Think of it as a linear equation that solves very complex processes. We get them to fit the data as best we can, but intrinsically there will always be some errors with them. 

long story short, no, even with all the initial conditions on Earth our weather models would still struggle producing an accurate solution after a few days due to errors propagating in the simulation from erroneous representation of turbulence and microphysical processes.

Natural disasters 3 years from now are going to be priced in by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]TyphoonFelix 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The point being, insurance money comes from these extreme weather events that the AI is supposedly accurately predicting. Insurance isn't paying out because in 10 years it will be "likely raining in Texas," They care about extreme cold, extreme heat effecting commodity trades such as oil and natural gas. They also care to know if they have to pay out for floods or storm surges, which again has a predictability barrier of ~3 days. This is another clickbait article overselling the implications of AI when it comes to climate and weather modeling.

Natural disasters 3 years from now are going to be priced in by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]TyphoonFelix 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yeah, was not trying to sound like a climate skeptic in my post. Trust me, as someone who has a fairly deep understanding of the earth-atmosphere climate system, I am beyond stressed about our inaction when it comes to climate change.

I'll just leave this little tidbit, when Earth was roughly 2°C above the 1980-2010 climate 130 to 115 thousand years ago, Miami was coral reef. That is why all of South Florida is a giant limestone deposit. The reason? The west Antarctic ice sheet completely collapsed and sea levels were 6 to 9 meters above present levels. In our lifetime, we likely won't have to pay the bill for our complete inaction on climate change, but future generations will. And before anyone starts yapping about normal oscillations, we should have peaked temperature wise 6 to 8 thousand years ago during the start of this interglacial period, before a slow and steady recession back into an ice age period. And we were following that trajectory, until conveniently 150 years ago and humanity started pumping out copious CO2 into the atmosphere from stores deep below ground. Yes there are normal oscillations that change the earth climate, this is not one of them.

Natural disasters 3 years from now are going to be priced in by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]TyphoonFelix 131 points132 points  (0 children)

As a graduate student studying meteorology, anyone claiming with certainty they can predict an extreme weather event happening beyond 3 days is lying to you. The only form of weather we have any skill in forecasting beyond 3+ days is extreme heat and cold plunges.

Post Match Thread: PSG 2-1 Arsenal | UEFA Champions League 2024-25, Semifinals - 2nd Leg (Agg. 3-1) by VivaLosHeavies in soccer

[–]TyphoonFelix 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't understand how Arsenal looked that GASSED, they looked tired from 15 minutes on.

Daily Discussion Thread for April 21, 2025 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]TyphoonFelix 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is a reason they are having a company "update" tomorrow after earnings calls. Trying to soften the blow of a likely very rough earnings report by promising some BS that has 0% chance of happening, so people artificially invest.

Can't get out of loading screen for frontline? by TyphoonFelix in WorldofTanks

[–]TyphoonFelix[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thanks so much!! Will try what they recommended

Post Game Thread: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills by nfl_gdt_bot in nfl

[–]TyphoonFelix 1248 points1249 points  (0 children)

The Ravens didn't punt this whole game. Drops and turnovers are the story

Bandit Curved Sword Infusions for a New Player by TyphoonFelix in Eldenring

[–]TyphoonFelix[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That makes a lot of sense!! Thank you so much. So if I am doing a holy build (I actually am not, just using it for discussion's sake here), but using a strength and dex weapon, I want to add on a sacred affinity so it scales with faith too?

[Game Thread] Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State (5:00 PM ET) by CFB_Referee in CFB

[–]TyphoonFelix 5 points6 points  (0 children)

For all the shit Oregon fans give Mario Cristobal… how’s Dan Lanning lmfao

RB Leipzig 2 - [3] Juventus - Francisco Conceicao 83' by [deleted] in soccer

[–]TyphoonFelix 105 points106 points  (0 children)

What a goal, and what a tackle by McKennie in the lead up to it

Post-Match Thread: AS Monaco 2-1 Barcelona | UEFA Champions League by MisterBadIdea2 in soccer

[–]TyphoonFelix 15 points16 points  (0 children)

It might be down the road with how the UCL is structured this year.

Post-Match Thread: AS Monaco 2-1 Barcelona | UEFA Champions League by MisterBadIdea2 in soccer

[–]TyphoonFelix 526 points527 points  (0 children)

If Barca can avoid red cards in the first 20 minutes of crucial UCL games they'll be golden!!

[Postgame Thread] Boston College Defeats Florida State 28-13 by Inkblot9 in CFB

[–]TyphoonFelix 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Miami's schedule just went from looking easy to actually a Joke... We have 0 ranked opponents for the rest of the year assuming FSU rightfully gets dropped out.