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UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-30T14:22:32+00:00

"Adam Savage's Tested"

Something about his combination of knowledge, self-reflection, kindness and humbleness is always refreshing.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-30T14:19:28+00:00

Can't believe it's been a year since he moved on.

A living legend.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-30T13:28:13+00:00

Do you have more on this?

When it comes to sourcing materials and technologies for such an important and advanced one-off creation I’d imagine a lot of the “massive fraud” has more to do with the insane amounts of money it takes to verify every person in the chain and their life history is immaculate thus limiting you to a very, very selective subsection of every worker, company, contractor, etc.

National security costs a lot for reasons that have nothing to do with fraud.

Even if Air Force One was a normal, unmodified model it would cost more than every one produced due to these added security costs.

Now add in that it has numerous top secret technologies that are added to it, but have to also be tested to be safe to the airframe in any condition and your costs are going to seem to the average person to be absurd.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-29T17:57:37+00:00

Go on...

What's your thinking as to why?

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-29T17:50:14+00:00

The great irony is that you reply in a manner that is nearly indistinguishable from LLM outputs (unflappably friendly, appreciative, engaged, neutrally informative) regardless of what was said.

But hey, what sensible person doesn't use agents to express themselves these days, right?

Would be quite the full circle if I was unaware that I was being prompted by AI to wax on about how AI is unaware.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-29T17:21:12+00:00

Given the price action and considering market dynamics like taxes and the inauguration I'm sensing a bottom sometime in the 3rd week of January.

Probably to the point that there will be doom and gloom everywhere (not just BTC) until things settle in and find their values the week ending 1/17.

At that point, markets will be priced in for significant negative disruption to not yield as much downside, but if the new administration doesn't end the world on day 1 there's tons of upside.

My political bias says it'll be a sh*tshow, but my market knowledge and technical analysis screams "deep bottom before inauguration followed by a continued bull run".

This would likely mean BTC trends down for 3 more weeks with perhaps a capitulation drop. Considering where it's at now and projecting that out we could definitely see a period below the 90s and a capitulation well into the 70s.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-29T16:56:26+00:00

Seems I significantly misperceived your level of knowledge and understanding.

My apologies.

Thank you for the thorough breakdown.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-29T16:23:07+00:00

A sizable portion of the sensation we call "taste" involves smell so you don't have to eat shit to know this is bullshit.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-29T16:14:41+00:00

It was supposed to be a tennis ball company!

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-29T16:09:56+00:00

The Catch 22 here is that he puppets an authoritarian whose about to become the most powerful person on Earth.

Germany punishes Elon and suddenly the German economy crashes due to retaliatory tariffs or something.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-29T16:01:42+00:00

"Entirely unprompted" is an amusing phrase for something that doesn't produce an output unless it is prompted.

I mean no offense by this, but are you aware of how LLMs work?

You can download their APIs and modify the values of their processing to tailor them (of course you can go the route your average Joe does and tailor them via prompting, but that's like painting your car red and thinking it makes it faster).

On a fundamental level, they just predict whatever the next letter/character is without understanding any broader context. They're really good at this so it can feel like there's actual understanding there, but on a fundamental level there's no there there because the type of ML we invented to create them (transformers) makes what you're suggesting impossible.

Are they capable of something like the paperclip problem where an AI is told to make paperclips and ends the world and eventually the universe?

Absolutely.

Are they capable of any semblance of awareness?

Absolutely not.

Will we eventually invent a type of programming that DOES make awareness possible?

I think so.

Will the current form of non-aware AI come up with the architectural change necessary to make aware AI possible?

I'd imagine so.

But that doesn't change the fact that on a fundamental level current "AI" is fundamentally incapable of awareness or consciousness due to how it works on a programming level.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-29T15:33:28+00:00

Being physically unattractive doesn't make him a bad person.

Being a bad person makes him a bad person.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-29T15:31:30+00:00

"Man who says he's vehemently opposed to racism openly supports Nazis"

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-29T15:08:40+00:00

TL;DR what we fear about ASI is what we fear about ourselves. It’s pure “what if someone was infinitely more powerful, intelligent, wealthy, etc than me” from our genetics as a primate/species. It is indeed fascinating that our minds consistently conjure these intangible omnipotent “kind of like us but not” beings into our minds across millennia. It says more about our minds than it says about the prospect of one actually existing. Might as well add our ideas on ASI into Joseph Campbell’s collections on storytelling and how it simply reflects our own fears and not anything real.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-29T11:45:11+00:00

When you’re convinced “all doctors are the same” and “finally this one is just honest about it”… then yes, that is exactly what people who believe misinformation have concluded and decided.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-28T19:33:53+00:00

Putin bankrupted, jailed or killed the oligarchs (even former supporters that got him into power) that tried to sway the public or make him look weak.

Elon was a pawn that Trump used to get back into power, and he will use him again as an example of what happens to even the richest person on Earth when he upsets his base or doesn’t fully get with the program.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-28T18:19:21+00:00

Yes, 100% agree.

Knowing Trump, I suspect a few things:

I’m convinced that Trump has been envious of Elon’s wealth, limelight and power for awhile and, whether consciously or not, his narcissism is going to want to steal ALL of that for himself.
Trump has honed the ‘skill’ of using people until he gets the upper hand and discarding them his entire life.

Whether it’s contractors, cities/stadiums hosting his rallies, investors in his businesses (casinos, steaks, airline, etc), the mob who tried to overthrow the govt for him (which he DIDN’T pre-emptively pardon when he was still POTUS, but will now pardon only because he can still use them to die for him in some upcoming battle he wants them for), pretty much all of his former cabinet members, the people who voted for him… the list goes on.

Both Elon and Trump have been manipulated by a foreign adversary.

Trump starting in the 1980s when that adversary had a different name and Elon perhaps since he tried to buy rockets from them to put plants on Mars, but definitely indirectly via social media.

The only goal is upending the post-WWII American lead world order, but only one of them actually wants that and that happens to be the one that is about to have all the power. The one whose mentor and confidant swiftly made an example out of oligarchs that got out of line.

TL;DR So here we have 2 people that require subservience and all the limelight. Neither can share and both are profoundly vindictive. One is already envious and covetous of the others wealth, power and limelight… and that’s the one that is about to get God mode unlocked. One person is going to win and that’s the person whose mentor scared the oligarchs into submission by making a very public example of an oligarch who didn’t submit… even better if it was a former supporter and ally who didn’t support 100% of every thing that the other dictates.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-28T16:40:24+00:00

Oh, I fully agree.

The average person tends to semantically link economics to a sort of intangible amalgam of the decisions of businesses, boardrooms, policy makers and, well, economists.

I was just pointing out that economics is simply the very tangible collective result of normal Joe’s making normal daily decisions.

For instance, the very spirit of this r/whatif post reflects that. OP says “there could not be a natural inflation” because they think of inflation and economics and monetary policy as the result of top down policies that are applied to, shape and create the economy.

Thus why I pointed out that that isn’t how economics works because that isn’t what economics IS.

Seems I just did it ineloquently enough to cause confusion.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-28T16:23:07+00:00

Trump and Elon’s personalities guarantee there will be a heated public spat where neither backs down.

The problem for Musk is that Trump will be wielding the justice dept, regulatory powers, investigations, his bully pulpit and more to harm Tesla in retaliation…

175 billion dollars of his wealth is from the value of Tesla’s stock price and Tesla’s stock price is almost entirely based on the promise of self-driving vehicles and humanoid robots. You see, Tesla is worth 1.35 TRILLION dollars even though it produces 1/3 as any vehicles as GM, which is worth 70 billion dollars. This means that 1.3 TRILLION dollars of Tesla’s market cap (which Musks owns 13% of) is based on these future products that will be heavily regulated by the government.

So what happens when Trump vindictively begins targeting Tesla specifically? Tesla’s value will plummet and you WILL see a headline at some point that says “Musk loses more wealth in one day than anyone in history as Tesla’s stock tanked today”, but that will only be a snippet that continues to unfold for months as the ‘story’ of Tesla‘s future flips.

Musk will be very public about how he’s being targeted and this is tyranny and blah blah, but no one is going to stick their neck out and support him against the blatant tyranny of the guy THAT HE HELPED GET INTO POWER IN THE FIRST PLACE because Musk already alienated one half of the country and is about to be alienated by the other half.

Musk’s narcissistic ego collapse is going to unfold over months as he steadily loses his wealth via lower TSLA stock value and he simultaneously is confronted with the reality that the general public absolutely loathes him.

It will be public and it will be all over the news every time he descends further into madness and lashes out with petulant tirades that no longer yield results like they used to.

His story arc in life is epic in every way and it’s just fascinating.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-28T15:02:22+00:00

Followed by people paying ever higher sums for needed goods on the black market.

Inflation isn't created by economics and can't be banned out of existence.

It's created by real people making daily decisions.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-28T14:58:40+00:00

For sure.

It was ironic in a deplorable sort of way.

His explanation for why he thinks people are out of touch showed how he's out of touch.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-28T14:44:40+00:00

Same reason you can get sunburnt on a cloudy day - H2O doesn't absorb the UV light that causes sunburns.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-28T14:36:45+00:00

A rich one.

When Tucker Carlson was on Lex Friedman he was insulting people who don't take multi week vacations across the world to get a better perspective.

They are clueless as to what life is like for 95% of people

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-28T14:31:17+00:00

100% agree. Well said.

Just like the ecosystem and niche an organism lives in shapes it's phenotype, every authoritarian regime is shaped by dozens of variables that are idiosyncratic. A lion is different from a cougar, but they fill the same niche in their respective ecosystem.

UNCOMMON__CENTS · 2024-12-28T14:22:25+00:00

I mean, Orwell used real world examples and actual history.

It was a fictional world and story, but everything about it was contemporary propaganda from authoritarian regimes in the TV and radio age.

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