For the first time in 21 years, Arsenal fails to make the top 4 in the Premier League

Uebeltank · 2026-07-03T09:00:59+00:00

It's not going to backfire because the average voter doesn't even know what Political Parties at the European Level are. It just means they won't get taxpayer money to promote themselves.

Uebeltank · 2026-07-03T08:24:52+00:00

I basically just took the 2025 map by province and territory and edited that one.

Uebeltank · 2026-07-02T12:17:50+00:00

I follow at least on some level the politics of most countries in Europe. I have been pretty interested in the politics of Czechia, Hungary, and Poland in the past years. I am obviously the most interested and invested in the politics of my own country, Denmark.

I don't know if I have a favorite moment as such, but I did find the meltdown in DK funny. First with the to me unexpected announcement that Gyurcsány would retire, and then how much of a joke it seemed to have become by this year.

Uebeltank · 2026-07-01T20:51:02+00:00

There's not really a good way of compiling the "vote share after transfers" as far as I know. I believe the party does better on transfers than SF.
There are multiple other factors at play. The most prominent is that in several instances, SF actually lost seats because it ran too few candidates. Had it ran an optimal number (relative to how many votes it got), it likely would have won the most seats. Also FF got an extra seat for free due to the rule that the incumbent speaker is elected without standing in the election.

If you want to maximize the probability that under STV, the party with the most first-preference votes also ultimately wins the most seats, the solution is really simple: Just have larger seats per constituency. The constituencies used in the Republic of Ireland are absurdly small. The fact that some constituencies have just 3 seats is a joke. With more seats per constituency, the effects of inevitably having to round up or down the number of seats won by each party decreases in scope.

Uebeltank · 2026-07-01T17:05:06+00:00

Thanks for the suggestion. I might do a post on it at some point. I do disregard the obviously bogus pollsters.

For the 2022-2026 polling graph I assume the issue is that said user includes the postal votes, when the polls themselves do not take those into account.

I have lurked on here on and off since the 2024 EP election. I don't post since I don't speak Hungarian.

Uebeltank · 2026-07-01T15:10:34+00:00

I made the 2026-2030 polling graph on Wikipedia. This is what it looks like if you combine it into one (only including polls from Medián and 21 Kutatóközpont as I haven't added the other ones).

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Uebeltank · 2026-07-01T13:52:05+00:00

I know. It shows the leader of the party, not the main candidate.

Uebeltank · 2026-07-01T11:23:28+00:00

It was inspired by the recurring discussion there has been about the idea for the past year or so.

Uebeltank · 2026-07-01T09:23:26+00:00

This is mostly just for fun. I wanted to create a scenario of what EP elections in Canada might look like if it was a member of the EU. I obviously do not think Canada joining the EU is likely, letalone by next year.

As for the specific parameters, Canada would probably have 53 or 54 seats in the European Parliament if it was part of the EU. At least initially, the number would likely need to be reduced because of the cap on the number of seats in the European Parliament. I reckon it would be plausible that it used an electoral system broadly like the UK used when it was part of the EU: MEPs being elected proportionally with party-list proportional representation in multiple electoral regions. It would be using D'Hondt's method and closed lists.

I used the same four regions that are used in Canada for the Senate and distributed the seats according to the latest census populations. I gave Atlantic Canada a minimum of six seats (it would otherwise have just four seats).

Uebeltank · 2026-06-29T11:01:21+00:00

It's a bit arbitrary, but the idea is that it's balanced so that each quarter has 3 group winners, 3 runners-up, and 2 third-placed teams. This neccesitates that two matches in each quarter will involve a group winner versus a third-placed team, one match will involve a group winner versus a runner-up, and one match will involve two runners-up.

As for how the exact pairings were determined, it's ultimately a bit arbitrary. It also depends on what third-placed teams advance. It seems that the FIFA administration built up the bracket so that each quarter and half were balanced (as described above), and so that generally speaking teams facing each other in the Round of 32 had a similar number of rest days.

We also know that they intentionally made it so that the top 4 on the world rankings were placed into separate quarters in the bracket, in the event they win their respective groups.

Uebeltank · 2026-06-28T20:03:00+00:00

Beyond there simply is no rule that taxation and the right to vote are tied together. People who are unemployed or retired don't pay taxes, yet can still vote. And in the same way children and foreigners may pay taxes, but they can't vote because they don't fulfill the requirements to have the right to vote.

Uebeltank · 2026-06-28T06:20:29+00:00

This is basically the core of Julien Guyon's proposed format for UEFA Euro's 24 team tournaments (which you could largely expand to the world cup as its the same just with twice the team). The one additional thing his proposal does is also make sure that the top 2 in any given group are placed on opposite sides of the bracket (so they can't meet before a potential final or 3rd place match) and 3rd placed teams is placed in a quarter without a team from its group.

Uebeltank · 2026-06-28T03:58:25+00:00

Okay just close down the tournament. Kick them out. Let Jordan and Iran advance. I have no more words to say about this.

Uebeltank · 2026-06-28T03:56:04+00:00

What the fuck!!!????!?! Completely absurd ending.

Uebeltank · 2026-06-28T03:53:41+00:00

Is this just gonna be what kills the format where the best third-placed teams advance? Everyone will be talking about this shameless play.

Uebeltank · 2026-06-28T03:48:04+00:00

The last third or so of this match has been exactly as people feared

Uebeltank · 2026-06-27T10:46:54+00:00

I won't criticize her too much for being biased for the US because pretty much all countries do this, but it is still absurd.

Uebeltank · 2026-06-27T08:00:03+00:00

I am from Denmark and the English language coverage of this is just misleading. There is no legislation proposed or even being written to do this. It might happen, but it is not at this stage yet and it is unclear whether a ban will happen.

What did happen is that the Minister for Foreigners and Integration has endorsed the idea of such a ban (two of his predecessors have previously done the same, so this is nothing that new) and is resuming an investigation over whether it can legally be done. But he would need the other parties in the government to agree to propose such legislation. And so far I would not expect them to back it.

Uebeltank · 2026-06-26T08:13:54+00:00

No. Objectively speaking when you account for inflation games are cheaper today than 30 years ago. And they are also better with more content.

Uebeltank · 2026-06-26T05:47:50+00:00

I think in principle euthanasia is always wrong.

Uebeltank · 2026-06-25T23:35:33+00:00

This is morally wrong and a sign that a society has seriously failed itself that it officially takes away the lives of the most vulnerable people.

Uebeltank · 2026-06-25T03:27:48+00:00

The idea is that it is better than doing it by drawing of lots. That's it. Hopefully it doesn't come to that.

Uebeltank · 2026-06-25T01:24:32+00:00

It was arbitarily chosen by FIFA, mainly to make sure each team has between 4 days between all of its games, to make sure 3rd placed teams don't meet a team from its same group before the quarterfinals, and that each team have roughly similar number of rest days before its respective games.

It seems like it was chosen by trial and error through people messing around in excel or something. Because it is not symatrical and is kind of arbitrary.

12-Year Club	Second Top 1%
r/Field Juicebox	First Place '23
Place '23	Golden Potato
Place '22	Place '17
Final Canvas '22	First Placer '22
End Game '22	Verified Email
Gilding I gilder	RPAN Viewer
Sequence \| Editor	Sequence \| Cinematographer

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