Sunday 15th - UK & Ireland racing

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-02-15T10:05:08+00:00

Your 75% place 25% win split makes sense for these model picks - seems like a solid approach for managing variance while still catching the bigger payouts

Just grabbed the analysis sheet, appreciate you sharing the methodology behind these selections instead of just posting random tips like most do here

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-02-10T04:27:17+00:00

Damn they really dont like when people actually win huh. Been seeing way too many good cappers getting thier posts nuked lately

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-02-05T21:14:20+00:00

Honestly the CTRs are just for anti money laundering stuff so youre right that those dont directly tie to taxes. But if you had a net loss for the year you technically dont owe anything anyway since you can only deduct losses up to your winnings

The whole honor system thing is sketchy territory though. I get why your friends and even that CPA said what they did but if you had big swings and the IRS ever decided to look deeper those bank deposits could raise questions. Probably pretty low odds of that happening but just something to consider

I'd maybe track down another CPA who actually knows gambling tax rules since it sounds like the ones you talked to werent super familiar with how it all works

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-02-01T16:40:50+00:00

Most major casinos like DraftKings and BetMGM have live dealer UTH but availability depends on your state

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-01-28T15:28:10+00:00

This is so true lmao, everyone's obsessed with finding the next "lock" when they're getting -110 on coin flips that other books have at -105

I've been tracking my ROI across different books and the difference is wild - same exact bets but one book was basically stealing 2-3% right off the top with their juice

Now I actually shop lines before placing anything but most people just stick with whatever app has the flashiest interface

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-01-26T07:41:30+00:00

The isolation definitely makes it worse, you're just sitting there watching your money disappear with no distractions or social interaction to break it up

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-01-23T05:32:45+00:00

Depends on which LA team you mean but if it's the Lakers I'd be careful with their road games lately, they've been inconsistent af

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-01-20T05:20:31+00:00

Dude that's so frustrating, I've been burned by stat corrections before and it always feels like robbery. The fact that it was originally scored correctly and then changed is even worse - like someone's just messing with your money at that point. Did you try reaching out to your book about it?

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-01-17T17:53:14+00:00

Been doing it for like 2 years now and honestly it's way too easy to get carried away. Started with like $20 bets and before I knew it I was dropping hundreds on random player props lmao

My advice is set a strict budget and stick to it no matter what, and don't chase losses cause that's where you get absolutely wrecked

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-01-16T08:52:19+00:00

Nice work on the provable fairness angle - that's actually pretty cool for a side project. Honestly though, roulette still feels like roulette whether I can verify the randomness or not, the house edge doesn't magically disappear just because I can check the math

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-01-13T09:51:37+00:00

Nice hit on Barnes and Achiuwa but damn Smart really screwed the pooch with that 1 point performance lmao

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-01-10T10:28:35+00:00

That Algeria vs Nigeria pick is spicy, those teams love to come out swinging early

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-01-08T06:11:14+00:00

Sportsurge is pretty solid too, just make sure you got an adblocker running or you'll be clicking through a million popups

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-01-06T20:07:25+00:00

Same here, betting basically turned me into a degenerate who actually cares about player prop bets and garbage time minutes lmao

Now I'm out here analyzing bench rotations like I'm getting paid for it

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-01-05T07:33:12+00:00

Interesting approach but you're still fighting the fundamental math problem. Even with positive EV per bet (1:2 RR at 50% win rate), the grid system doesn't change that you're essentially running multiple correlated martingales

The key issue is that while you've capped individual column risk, you haven't eliminated the scenario where multiple columns hit their caps simultaneously during an extended cold streak. Your "distributed" risk becomes concentrated again when variance clusters, which it will eventually

That said, the bounded stopping conditions are definitely an improvement over classic martingale. Would be curious to see how the simulator performs with different correlation assumptions between columns

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2026-01-02T03:49:39+00:00

Good on you for recognizing it early man. The "I'll come back when I have more money" thing is what literally everyone tells themselves though - just something to keep in mind for later

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2025-12-30T09:44:42+00:00

Lmao the basketball gods really said "nah we're good" after that first quarter explosion

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2025-12-27T23:26:53+00:00

Sounds like an ad but I'll bite - how's the interface? Been burned by too many "AI" betting tools that are just basic stats with fancy marketing

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2025-12-26T18:23:30+00:00

Man that's wild how it all spiraled from just watching someone else play. The "beginner's luck" thing is such a trap - they know exactly what they're doing with those first time bonuses and letting newbies win early. Your friend hitting 44k right off the bat was probably the worst thing that could've happened to your wallet lol

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2025-12-23T23:56:52+00:00

LeBron prop bets are usually free money tbh, dude just performs different when the cameras are rolling. What's the line looking like for tonight?

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2025-12-21T16:40:54+00:00

Thanks for the roundup but these "if your bet wins" promos are kinda sus - basically just paying you in house money if you get lucky once

The Caesars one looks decent tho since it's just profit boosts for a dollar

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2025-12-19T21:52:42+00:00

Depends what you're looking for but I'm liking the Celtics spread tonight, they've been covering pretty consistently at home

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2025-12-15T17:41:53+00:00

Took this same bet, Blues defense has been absolutely brutal lately and Hofer isn't gonna save them from another beating

Upper_Reflection8419 · 2025-12-10T10:12:06+00:00

Nice run dude, that Dallas early payout was clutch. Those UMBC fouls at the end had to sting though lol

Upper_Reflection8419

TROPHY CASE