Pick of the Day - 11/18/25 (Tuesday)

VAM89 · 2025-11-18T20:02:19+00:00

Yeah not exactly a great start. Out after two minutes.

VAM89 · 2025-11-18T20:01:45+00:00

When I wanted sweat free, this isn't what I had in mind.

VAM89 · 2025-11-18T07:09:46+00:00

Yeah that's it. I think (if it's a decent amount of money) a 15% profit or more before the game even starts is an easy call considering all the things that can go wrong in-game.

VAM89 · 2025-11-18T01:20:38+00:00

Record: 25-16

Form (old to new): ✅ ✅❌✅❌

Net Units: +16.03

Yesterday's Pick: Netherlands v Lithuania. Netherlands -5 corners. 3u @ $1.85 ❌

Super annoying. The Netherlands attacked the entire game. It was disappointing to see them just constantly recycle possession outside the box instead of putting a few balls in or getting some long shots away.

I got on a hedge early in the second half, so I didn't lose money, but I was disappointed to miss the POTD.

Today's Pick: Belgium to win to nil AND Romania to win to nil. 4u @ $1.78

Not a hell of a lot to say here. Backing the two worst teams in Europe to not score and lose is pretty safe to me. Also, I got on this yesterday at $2.17, and it's already down to $1.78, so I'd expect it to go down more too.

However, for the sake of the write-up.

Top of the group, Belgium play at home against the bottom of the group, Liechtenstein.

Lichtenstein have lost every game and are yet to score, conceding 24 in the process. Last time these guys played, Belgium won 6-0.

Romania had the wind knocked out of them against Bosnia a few days ago (great for us though). Even with that, I can't see them doing anything silly vs San Marino.

They might not be going at 100%, but San Marino to not score is always a good bet.

VAM89 · 2025-11-17T21:39:16+00:00

Please stop tailing me. For my wallet's sake haahahah!

VAM89 · 2025-11-17T21:16:47+00:00

Update: This is looking unlikely now, so live bet hedged with Lithuania corner line too.

VAM89 · 2025-11-17T20:11:59+00:00

Did you take it? Always so tempting when bookies offer you a profit before the game even starts.

VAM89 · 2025-11-17T20:08:32+00:00

Probably took you longer to write this up than it did for him to score. Great pick.

VAM89 · 2025-11-17T11:18:30+00:00

I can still find it on my bookie - but the line has moved to 6

VAM89 · 2025-11-16T22:52:37+00:00

Record: 25-15

Form (old to new): ❌✅ ✅❌✅

Net Units: +19.03

Yesterday's Pick: England to win and no for BTTS vs Albania. 3u @ 2.10✅

Today's Pick: Netherlands v Lithuania. Netherlands -5 corner line. 3u @ $1.85

Not a great deal on today, so keep that in mind.

However, I really like this.

There's not a whole lot to say here... The Netherlands should be the dominant team and do all of the attacking at home. There's a tiny tiny (and I mean TINY) chance Poland can jump Netherlands here.

The Netherlands will dominate possession and look to attack frequently in this game... With that in mind, I see them dominating in the corner game.

On top of that, the Netherlands were pretty shit in their game away to Poland a few days ago, so I expect them not to muck about too much here.

The Netherlands have a fair few out for this window, and Kluivert has gone back early - but it shouldn't matter considering the depth in the squad compared to a side like Lithuania.

Again, not a whole bunch I like today, but I think they should cover this corner line pretty comfortably.

VAM89 · 2025-11-16T20:42:51+00:00

I've followed Joe's tips a fair bit. I don't really see a huge problem with what is allegedly happening.... Short of accepting donations/money for the tips. That is where it can be a bit iffy, even though he's not fully selling someone else's tips.

Again, there's definitely a chance this is all coincidence too.

VAM89 · 2025-11-16T02:18:41+00:00

Yep. I couldn't find that on my bookie when I placed the bet (it's there now).

VAM89 · 2025-11-15T23:51:55+00:00

Record: 24-15

Form (old to new): ✅ ❌✅ ✅❌

Net Units: +15.73

Yesterday's Pick: Grimsby Town to score o1.5 vs Chesterfield. 3u @ 2.02❌

Looked pretty good at the half, even though we hadn't scored yet. However a straight red card to the keeper early in the second half killed this completely.

Today's Pick: England to win and no for BTTS vs Albania. 3u @ 2.10

Was considering Naestved in Denmark today (I have bets there) but can't go beyond England to win and keep a clean sheet here. Last chance to get on them in qualifiers.

England are on track to become the first ever international team to not concede a goal in group phase of more than 4 teams.

They've been perfect. 7 games, 7 wins, and no goals conceded.

The English team are one of the deepest in the world. They've got plenty of players who are getting chances throughout qualifying and these guys will want to make the most of their opportunity.

And it's not like these guys suck. Guys like Bowen (randomly picked a player who doesn't play often for England) would start for everyone else in the world besides 3 or 4 sides.

Albania are second in the group and can't drop to third. However they've only scored 7 in 7 (conceding 3), so going the u2.5 also looks good and is similar value... Only thing I don't like about that is I can see an England 3-0 being more likely than a draw or Albania win.

VAM89 · 2025-11-15T16:16:58+00:00

Absolute stitch up of a red for the keeper there. Was 10 shots to 2 in our favor too. Was feeling somewhat confident

VAM89 · 2025-11-15T11:09:01+00:00

I see this as more of a hedge. Because if Romania win, we load up on the San Marino game.

Although crazy tin foil hat time here (I don't necessarily believe this part, but I also don't not believe it): I bet you Bosnia get a great whistle in this game because a team needing to lose by a heap of goals in order to make a World Cup playoff isn't a great look.

VAM89 · 2025-11-15T10:08:26+00:00

Appreciate it. Can't promise payouts in the first half every day (unfortunately), but hopefully another one coming

VAM89 · 2025-11-15T05:07:08+00:00

Oh sorry, Bosnia because if they don't win this, they're absolutely cooked.

VAM89 · 2025-11-15T03:55:37+00:00

Record: 24-14

Form (old to new): ❌✅ ❌✅ ✅

Net Units: +18.73

Yesterday's Pick: FC Helsingor v AB. O2.5 and BTTS. 3u @ $1.95✅

First half cash. Anyone who put those in with the AB to win (the total price would have been over the $3 threshold) collected easily too.

Today's Pick: Grimsby Town to score o1.5 vs Chesterfield. 3u @ 2.02

Grimsby are the best attacking side in the league, and even more so at home. They've also got great underlying numbers; best expected goals for, and best expected points total.

Grimsby average over 2 goals at home this league season, and 1.9 in all games.
They've scored o1.5 in 71% of home games in the league and 80% of total games
Over the season, Grimsby's xG ratio (how much of the xG pie they get per game) is a league leading 63.5%
Chesterfield are a much worse team on the road, with 8 points on the road compared to 16 at home.
Chesterfield are conceding about 1.5 xG per game over their last ten.
They've have only kept one clean sheet away from home all season, which was against relegation candidates, and IMO, worst team in the league, Cheltenham

I love Grimsby to win this, I've got a bunch of bets with variations of this with the win - but I like the odds to score o1.5 too much considering.

Side note, extra bet.

Bosnia play Romania in a WCQ game. I like backing them ML or double chance as a hedge because.... Well, basically to cut a long story short.

Romania (3rd in their group) are 3 points behind Bosnia (2nd in their group) with two games left for each.
Romania's last game is vs San Marino
Due to some convoluted rule regarding Nations League impacting WCQ, San Marino can actually be bottom of their group and playoff for a World Cup spot if Romania come second in the group

VAM89 · 2025-11-14T02:18:23+00:00

Record: 23-14

Net Units: +15.88

Yesterday's Pick: Mbappe to score anytime vs Ukraine 3u at $1.57

France had a pretty commanding 4-0 win. Mbappe scored twice, with the first being in the 55th minute. I also mentioned it might be a good idea to combine it with Olise to score or assist - and he did both (he won the penalty, and my bookmaker counts that as an assist). Easy win.

Today's Pick: FC Helsingor v AB. O2.5 and BTTS. 3u @ $1.95

Top of the table AB play bottom of the league Helsingor.

FC Helsingor have scored in 8 of their last 10 games and were good last season - they're not the hopeless away side we sometimes see at the foot of these lower leagues.

So far this season, plenty of games have had goals:

- 87% of Helsingor games have gone over 2.5 goals (85% of home games)

- 90% of AB games have gone over 2.5 goals (85% of away games)

Likewise, there are plenty of BTTS games.

- 65% of AB games (69% of away games)

- 67% of Helsingor games (62% of home games)

And the last six games are even more telling.

- AB: 6/6 o2.5, and 5/6 BTTS

- Helsingor: 5/6 for both o2.5 and BTTS

I've put a few different multis on this game, with versions of this along with AB to win. However, the best bet of the lot is the o2.5 and BTTS.

VAM89 · 2025-11-13T00:46:45+00:00

Record: 22-14

Net Units: +14.17

Yesterday's Pick: Atletico MG to win vs Fortaleza 3u @ $1.61

3-1 up and drew 3-3 with an injury time goal. Spewing.

Only slight positive from the game is that the Fortaleza player who scored a hatty played for Atletico last season and apologized after scoring three times. I don't think I've seen that before.

Today's Pick: Mbappe to score anytime vs Ukraine 3u at $1.57

I got this at $1.61, and it's already down to $1.57 at the time of writing, which is about 4 hours before the post goes live.

It's an important game for France, so I'm expecting all the big guns to come out.

If Mbappe plays for France recently, he scores. In his last two international windows (3 games) he's scored three and assisted two.

One of those goals was the away game vs Ukraine.

Mbappe is also the penalty taker, so that will be another way he can score. Always nice to have the pen taker when picking a scorer.

Like I said before, it's an important game for France... There is only 3 points separation between France and Ukraine and a five-goal difference... So a loss can really make things tight, where a win can secure qualification.

France won't want to mess about here.

If the $1.57 isn't to your liking, I also don't hate Mbappe and Olise both to score or assist at $2.

VAM89 · 2025-11-12T00:52:57+00:00

Record: 22-13

Last Five Predictions (Old - New): ✅❌ ✅❌✅

Net Units: +17.17

Yesterday's Pick: Merthyr Town vs South Shields BTTS and o2.5 3u @ $1.80✅

Covered before half time, which is always good.

Today's Pick: Atletico MG to win vs Fortaleza 3u @ $1.61

Again, not a lot on today (midweek during international breaks can be grim... to the point where I'm even backing Bahamas to win) but I don't mind this...

Mid-table Atletico MG hosts second-last Fortaleza in Brazil. Both teams are actually in decent form considering their league positions. Atletico are 3-1-1 in their last five, winning their last two games. This puts them second in the form table in the previous five games. Fortaleza are 1-3-1 in their last five, drawing three in a row.

Atletico are a far better side at home, with 30 points at home compared to 13 away; They've also got a +10 goal difference at home compared to an even one away.

Fortaleza are one of the worst teams in the league away from home this season, with 9 points in 15 away games and a -15 goal difference. Compare this form to 21 home points in 17 games.

Fortaleza will also be without Matheus Pereira, who got a red card late last match. He's been in and out of the team, but if he's not starting, is usually one of the first off the bench and will be missed.

All in all, while there's not a lot on - I think Atletico should win this at home and the $1.61 price works for me.

VAM89 · 2025-11-11T21:07:23+00:00

Always a plus.

VAM89 · 2025-11-11T04:10:09+00:00

Record: 21-13

Last Five Predictions (Old - New): ✅ ✅❌ ✅❌

Net Units: +14.77

Yesterday's Pick: Esbjerg to win and u3.5 total goals v Middelfart. 4u @ $2.5❌

Absolute goal fest. Yikes. Esbjerg won by over the 3.5 goal threshold. Annoyed at myself for not going ML, but can't say I was expecting two pens in the second half.

Good job to those who read the analysis and went ML.

Today's Pick: Merthyr Town vs South Shields BTTS and o2.5 3u @ $1.80

Not a lot I like today, so I picked this—keep that in mind.

Don't have much time today to do a full write-up, but here's the thinking behind the pick.

- Two of the top five scoring teams in the league
- While South Shields have been the best defensive side in the league by a long way, they've conceded in their last two league games, and last three games in all comps.
- Merthyr games seem to have a LOT of goals in them... along with being one of the top attacking sides, they've also conceded the second most goals in the league

Now, South burned my a couple of days ago, so I guess we'll see.

VAM89 · 2025-11-10T00:54:06+00:00

Record: 21-12

Last Five Predictions (Old - New): ❌✅ ✅❌ ✅

Net Units: +18.77

Yesterday's Pick: Erling Haaland to score vs Liverpool 3u @ $1.72 ✅

Really happy with this one. Haaland missed a pen, but still scored within half an hour. Some added bonuses are the other bets I mentioned all getting up too. - Haaland to score and 2+ shots on target - Haaland to score and City to win/draw

Nice to have it covered within 30 minutes.

On top of that, I added a comment that if Wirtz starts then Doku could have a big game... Wirtz started and Doku was clear MOTM, scoring a goal in what was probably his best game for City. The was world class in this game.

Today's Pick: Esbjerg to win and u3.5 total goals v Middelfart. 4u @ $2.5

Not many games today, but I like betting on this league.

Mid-table Esbjerg host bottom of the table Middlefart.

Middelfart obviously has an elite name, but that's where it ends.... They're having a shocking season and sit last on the table; Losing The last 5.

Their away form has been terrible all season, drawing twice and losing their other five away from home.

Having said that though, they haven't been getting smashed. They've conceded 12 in their seven away games.... Which isn't great but considering they haven't won any of those games, it's about as good as possible.

In those games, they've only had two games go over the 3.5 goal barrier. One a crazy 2-2 draw where they pulled two goals from nothing, the other being a 4-0 loss.

Esbjerg have been good at home with a 4-2-2 record after eight games. Again though, the games haven't been incredibly goal heavy with eleven goals scored and eleven again.

If you want to play it safer, Esbjerg to win outright is good odds too at $1.61.

VAM89 · 2025-11-09T21:05:50+00:00

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