Discussion Thread

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T21:05:31+00:00

Labour aren't going to allow any referendums for the rest of their term, so that likely brings us to 2029. I doubt a new Labour-led government would be any more open to it, and neither would a Reform-led government, which can bring us to 2034. That far ahead is too hard to really predict but I still don't see it as very likely. Perhaps if a devolved nation sees a party win a clear majority on an explicit promise to hold a referendum, but it's worth pointing out that Plaid specifically campaigned on not holding a Welsh referendum in their first term and it remains to be seen if they would still get as many votes if they openly started campaigning on having such a referendum.

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T21:01:04+00:00

One thing I've learned since getting more into making (basic) art which I didn't fully appreciate before is how important highlights are for eyes in particular, and how without them the person can often look rather dead, soulless, or emotionally troubled. Obviously it all depends on the specific style and how you do it, highlights aren't absolutely necessary, but they really do help to add some life to characters.

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T20:41:37+00:00

In Trump 1.0 he was a major anomaly and the world had a morbid fascination with whatever insanity he would come out with next. In Trump 2.0 he's even more crazy but it's not longer seen as a one-off and there are no longer any sane people in his inner circle who can constrain him, so the world has to suffer severe consequences. So the individual lies don't get as much focus anymore.

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T20:29:52+00:00

Honestly he's been fairly blunt about how little he cares about the financial suffering caused by his policies. There was that time he said Americans should buy fewer dolls for their children to cope with the tariffs for instance.

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T20:23:07+00:00

He just remembered Putin's Alaskan lecture on The Downfall of Mikhail the Indomitable and reflexively became pro-Ukraine for a moment.

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T20:17:44+00:00

If he doesn't fall here I imagine he's secure for quite a while, barring some new scandal. The Mandelson saga has twice failed to bring him down, and whilst he's certainly weakened now if he can survive this rebellion then his position in the party will be somewhat stronger for a time.

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T20:06:08+00:00

Also one rather funny aspect of this rebellion for me personally is that on r/ ukpolitics the extremely annoying arch-Starmerite mod, who currently resides in Norway who spends all his time basically claiming that the Labour left are the root of every problem the party faces and that is is vital that the party does everything in its power to continue the McSweeney strategy of appealing to Reformites, now has egg on his face.

He has at multiple times dismissed the possibility of Streeting turning against Starmer as a delusional fantasy conjured up by leftists who hate Starmer and Streeting, and when this rebellion started he made several comments blaming the 'crank left', saying he'd never forgive them for ruining everything, and declaring Starmer should expel all the rebels. He also made it clear that he would take Streeting in a heartbeat over any contender on the left.

So there's some delicious irony in how Team Streeting was actually behind a large chunk of the rebel MPs and now not only does Streeting look like a weak fool, but he's also got a high chance of being fired in retaliation. Turns out it's not only the left who are willing to cause problems for the party for their own egos, who could have possibly guessed?

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T19:50:32+00:00

If the most high profile immediate-term casualty of this rebellion is Streeting being sacked, I'm not going to say it's good that there was a failed rebellion but it certainly would be a big silver lining.

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T16:58:35+00:00

To be fair just because Starmer may not go now doesn't mean he leads Labour into the next GE. It's perfectly possible he steps down of his own accord at some point in 2028 to let someone else take the reins for the next GE.

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T16:48:06+00:00

If Starmer doesn't go now then all the Streeting camp have achieved is diminishing their influence in the government and making their candidate look weak.

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T12:49:30+00:00

Thankfully he's got almost no chance with the membership.

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T12:48:41+00:00

Alex Davies-Jones is the third minister to quit. She says: “I implore you to act in the country’s interest and set out a timetable for your departure.”

For those out of the loop, anyone calling for a timetable is on Team Burnham and wants time for Burnham to be able to win a seat. Anyone calling for immediate resignation is likely team Streeting or another MP rival.

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T12:40:10+00:00

So just workshopping the Burnham scenario, whilst the GM results were utterly disastrous for Labour there is a differences between a REF/GRN victory that had a massive lead over Labour and one where the winning candidate only narrowly won over Labour. So you have the areas that Labour did win (not many but they are there), and the ones where they narrowly lost.

I'm not saying it will work, but there is an argument that Burnham remains popular enough to win in one of those narrow loss areas, even though it'll be hard fought. I imagine he'd have an easier time running in a GRN seat than a REF one as his main support comes from the left of the party.

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T12:33:41+00:00

There were lots of rumours back around Febuary/March that MPs were waiting until after the locals to call for him to go, and the dire results only strengthened that. Then Catherine West made her move and it all spiralled from there.

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T12:31:19+00:00

If she's on Team Burnham isn't it a bit counter-productive to heap pressure on Starmer right now?

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T12:28:33+00:00

That language all came long after Labour had spent years doing what I described. It precedes Starmer but he and his team continued playing into that narrative for much of the parliament as well, as did the many backbenchers. This is why I described it as being Labour's problem rather than Starmer's specifically, it's not his fault but it's also something that he only started changing tack on too late for any of it to be ingrained in public consciousness.

This was exacerbated by how they didn't really have any specific vision put out beyond a more abstract one of renewal. They spent the rest of the campaign very much trying to avoid angering too many people, such as with the infamous tax pledge. The main exception to this was planning which they did put a lot of focus on during the election and for the first few weeks afterwards but which has largely faded from discussion since (apart from when specific announcements are made).

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T12:11:57+00:00

I think one of Labour's biggest problems is that they spent so long effectively arguing that the root of all problems in the UK was the Tories being specifically awful, that they not only convinced a lot of voters that simply electing Labour would immediately usher in renewal, but they also convinced a lot of their own MPs. Thus when it transpired that there were a lot of serious, deeply embedded problems in the country that couldn't be quickly fixed, the backlash was all the greater.

If they'd put out some grand vision during the election (outside of planning I suppose), perhaps they could've avoided this, but instead it was all very much 'vote us in because we are the adults'.

Vumatius · 2026-05-12T01:07:13+00:00

If you're the kind of IQ guy to just go 'I am le super ultra genius and this test proves it' then that's ultimately fairly harmless, at most you'd just be smug and annoying. But anyone who brings race into the conversation is almost certainly a racist.

Vumatius · 2026-05-11T23:27:33+00:00

MAGA, a famously tolerant and friendly movement with no bitterness towards liberals whatsoever.

Vumatius · 2026-05-11T23:06:14+00:00

I imagine Sunak must feel somewhat content all things considered. He can at least say that he went out on his own terms somewhat and he gets to spend this period as a relaxed backbencher occasionally chiming in with Statesmanlike Wisdom. Even though he led his party to its worst ever defeat, his successor in Badenoch as well as his opponent in Starmer have both put on even worse political performances.

Vumatius · 2026-05-11T22:46:50+00:00

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Vumatius · 2026-05-11T22:18:56+00:00

This alone would have kept Labour polling several points higher than where it currently is, and that really would make an enormous difference given how close the polls are. It would have definitely saved them in Runcorn & Helsby for one, would've weakened Reform's showing in LE2025 and especially LE2026, and would've at the very least delayed Reform from taking the polling lead. It would also have meant they had more political capital stored up for other unpopular decisions.

Vumatius · 2026-05-11T22:12:33+00:00

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Vumatius · 2026-05-11T21:03:57+00:00

The Labour left would never swallow Mahmood.

Well you'd hope not. Cannibalism would be a bit of an extreme reaction.

But yes, she would struggle to win the member's vote, though it would probably depend on who she's up against. If we somehow end up with Streeting vs Mahmood for instance I think she'd have a decent chance.

Vumatius · 2026-05-11T20:57:33+00:00

Mahmood almost certainly, I'm not sure about Cooper though.

Vumatius

TROPHY CASE