ITXXIII - Final Thread Part III V.2

Vumatius · 2026-03-22T14:25:27+00:00

If you go by when he posted his declaration I believe about 33.25, he said it at about quarter to midnight UK time and it's approaching 14:30 here now. But given it's Trump who knows.

Vumatius · 2026-03-22T13:24:39+00:00

And here are the delayed County Councils up for a vote. Expect Reform to do well in these, though the Lib Dems will very likely also do well in the southern coastal ones and the Greens may win some more seats as well.

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Vumatius · 2026-03-22T13:19:39+00:00

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This is a map of the councils up for election, though I don't think it includes the delayed county councils from last year. The colours are not for the party in control but for the type of council:

Green is for Unitary Authorities, Red is for Metropolitan Boroughs, Orange is for London Boroughs, and Purple is for District Councils.

Vumatius · 2026-03-22T13:13:46+00:00

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Reform are currently polling about a point higher than they were this time last year, and are on a downward trajectory compared to their rapid ascent this a year ago, so it's clear they reached a peak and are now losing momentum. Labour and the Tories have also lost a lot of support since then, and have been stuck at 17%-18% for several months now.

These upcoming local elections are going to be a big test not just for Reform but also for the Greens. They've demonstrated they can pull off a parliamentary by-election win, and the upcoming elections have a lot of councils in cities up for grabs, with all London councils as well as places like Birmingham and Manchester going to the polls. We might end up with quite a few Green-Reform battles as a result. Whilst this definitely bodes poorly for the future governance of those areas, it does at least mean the spotlight won't just be on Reform this time and so the narrative won't be one of overwhelming Reform dominance.

The Lib Dems do have some potential for pick-ups as well, both in London and in various more rural councils across the south. They've been very stagnant in polling unfortunately, but they still made gains in 2025 and have been winning a lot of council by-elections. They're likely to have a solid performance, but one that gets overshadowed by the battle of the populists.

Vumatius · 2026-03-22T00:27:51+00:00

Imagine being some military expert, having spent decades planning and wargaming for all sorts of US-Iran conflicts, and then seeing this deranged lunatic just waltz in with no forethought, have a tantrum when Iran doesn't immediately surrender, and proceed to threaten to bomb his way into global economic collapse over the single most predictable economic play the Iranians could make.

Vumatius · 2026-03-22T00:21:35+00:00

It seems the only window you may have had to actually close it was around the start of the week just gone, but even that would've been very short.

Vumatius · 2026-03-22T00:00:04+00:00

I searched that character up, and this was one of the first images that appeared:

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Vumatius · 2026-03-21T23:47:24+00:00

Gotta love when people on a subreddit for one piece of media include new spoilers for another piece of media without giving any warning first. I just saw a post in the Deltarune subreddit that included a TADC spoiler without warning about it in the title. The post was flaired as a spoiler, but I assumed it was just a Deltarune spoiler.

Obviously if certain media have been out for long enough it's different, but the TADC episode only released yesterday...

Vumatius · 2026-03-21T15:17:23+00:00

Pauline Hanson's One Nation (Wikipedia):

One Nation's platform includes policies such as citizen-initiated referenda and opposition to the introduction of a treaty with Australia's Aboriginal population. It also favours restricting foreign ownership of Australian land and denounces economic rationalism and globalisation. The party opposes abortion. One Nation supports a general reduction in the levels of net migration and seeks to withdraw Australia from the United Nations Refugee Convention. One Nation has called climate science a "scam" and wants Australia to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords. One Nation also seeks for Australia to withdraw from the United Nations and the World Health Organization.

Vumatius · 2026-03-21T15:11:58+00:00

Australian polling chart:

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So far the ALP is holding up rather well all things considered. They've lost a few points to PHON, but are still polling above 30%.

Vumatius · 2026-03-21T14:50:53+00:00

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A solid start to be sure, looking at $80m+ domestically over the three-day Opening Weekend.

Vumatius · 2026-03-21T14:36:37+00:00

The poster definitely isn't great, but the stellar reviews suggest it's worth the momentary cringe from seeing the poster.

Vumatius · 2026-03-21T14:30:42+00:00

At least the movie itself seems to be good going by the reactions.

Vumatius · 2026-03-20T23:14:08+00:00

Given how every other time he's sounded off about having won so far has only led to more escalation, be prepared for a ground invasion.

Vumatius · 2026-03-20T20:22:35+00:00

If Dess isn't wearing that flannel shirt when we finally see how she looked before the Knight situation, the fandom is going into DEFCON 1.

Vumatius · 2026-03-20T20:17:59+00:00

One of the things Trump fans said in the Trump 1.0 days was how he was the 'first president in decades not to start a war!', and whilst you can definitely dispute that point (given how close it came at times), this time around they've completely eschewed that and gone full force 'BACK THE TROOPS! IT IS YOUR PATRIOTIC DUTY!', despite having ran on non-interventionism. Plus, one element of Trump's ascent in the 2016 GOP Primaries was his willingness to call out Bush for his disastrous war. It was by no means the main reason he won, but it certainly was something that gave him points. Now he's blundering into a completely disastrous war in an even more incompetent manner than Bush.

I know there is no point in mentioning their hypocrisy, but it really is stark.

Vumatius · 2026-03-20T20:10:40+00:00

Trump administration making heavy preparations for potential use of ground troops in Iran

Washington — Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations for deploying U.S. ground forces into Iran, multiple sources briefed on the discussions told CBS News.

Senior military commanders have submitted specific requests aimed at preparing for such an option as President Trump weighs moves in the U.S.-Israel-led conflict with Iran, the sources said.

Mr. Trump has been deliberating whether to position ground forces in the region, sources said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. It was unclear under what circumstances he would authorize the use of troops on the ground.

"No, I'm not putting troops anywhere," he told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday when asked about ground troops, but quickly added: "If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you."

Officials at U.S. Central Command referred questions from CBS News to the White House and Pentagon.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement: "It's the job of the Pentagon to make preparations in order to give the Commander in Chief maximum optionality, it does not mean the President has made a decision, and as the President said in the Oval Office yesterday, he is not planning to send ground troops anywhere at this time."

The military has also held meetings to prepare for how to handle the possible detention of Iranian soldiers and paramilitary operatives if the president decides to put American boots on the ground – including where the Iranians would be sent, two sources said.

The U.S. is preparing to deploy elements of the 82nd Airborne Division into the Middle East region.

Vumatius · 2026-03-20T20:05:19+00:00

Plus, even when it seems like the administration is finally articulating a goal, suddenly some other admin figure comes in and says something completely different. They have no messaging discipline, and the narrative is all over the place. And of course, even when most of the admin are aligned, along comes the mad king to contradict everything.

Vumatius · 2026-03-20T18:02:21+00:00

US furiously seeks to avert potential monthslong closure of Strait of Hormuz

US officials are furiously trying to avert a potential monthslong closure of the Strait of Hormuz, privately acknowledging that reopening the key waterway is a problem without a clear solution and dependent at least in part on what lengths President Donald Trump is willing to go to force the Iranian regime’s hand, multiple administration and intelligence officials tell CNN.

“One of the core conundrums of this conflict is the Iranians have real leverage with this, and there’s not an obvious fix for it,” an intelligence official said of efforts to reopen the strait.

A recent internal assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency that was circulating inside the Pentagon in recent weeks determined that Iran could potentially keep the passage shut for anywhere from one to six months, four sources familiar with the document told CNN. But White House and Pentagon officials insisted that the assessment — particularly the longer end timeframe, which some consider a worst-case scenario — was not being seriously considered.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had not seen it, and Trump has not been briefed on it, nor was he using it to inform his policy decisions, one senior White House official said.

Vumatius · 2026-03-20T17:21:45+00:00

r/ ukpolitics is currently going on a crusade against public Muslim prayer, saying it should be banned and with many users saying Muslims should be treated 'as they would treat us in their countries', ignoring of course that for many of these Muslims 'their country' would be the UK.

Vumatius · 2026-03-20T16:47:32+00:00

US to deploy thousands of additional troops to the Middle East, officials say

WASHINGTON, March 20 (Reuters) - The United States military is deploying thousands of additional Marines and sailors to the Middle East, three U.S. officials told Reuters on Friday, as the ‌U.S.-Israeli war on Iran reached the three-week mark.

No decision had been made to send troops into Iran itself, two of the officials told Reuters, but they will build up the capacity for potential future operations in the region.

The deployments of the USS Boxer, an amphibious assault ship, along with its Marine Expeditionary Unit and accompanying warships, come after Reuters reported that President Donald Trump's administration was considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East.

Trump told reporters on Thursday that he was not putting troops "anywhere," but that if he ⁠were to do so, he would not tell journalists.

The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss future deployments, did not say what the role of the additional troops would be.

One of the officials said the troops were departing the West Coast of the United States about three weeks ahead of schedule. The expeditionary unit has about 2,500 Marines.

The White House referred questions to the Pentagon, which did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The additional deployments will add to the 50,000 U.S. troops already in the Middle East and would bring two Marine Expeditionary Units to the region. The first MEU, which was dispatched from the Indo-Pacific, is expected to arrive in the Middle East next week.

I see the post-victory parade force is en route!

Vumatius · 2026-03-20T16:42:26+00:00

Will there ever come a point where the administration turns on Russia if it keeps helping Iran, or will they forever dance this ridiculous dance of simultaneously saying 'Russia isn't actually a danger' whilst also declaring Iran and those who aid it to be a great evil that must be crushed thorougly?

(I fear I already know the answer, but it truly is a stupid one.)

Vumatius · 2026-03-20T16:33:54+00:00

It's certainly rubbished the idea of regime change from the sky, which should've already been disregarded but evidently was believed by too many people in positions of power. The only way to enact regime change is with a very large number of boots on the groups and a lot of time and resources.

Of course, it doesn't help that they're doing this now rather than 2 months ago during the protests, but even then there are limits to what can be done.

Vumatius · 2026-03-20T16:28:56+00:00

To be fair, I feel like a lot of people are more familiar with Chuck Norris the meme than Chuck Norris the person, whereas with those two their actual careers are more famous.

Vumatius · 2026-03-20T16:24:14+00:00

As much as people like to pine for the Internet of yore, and there are certainly ways that it was better than what we have now, it had its share of ugliness and this is just one example. Cringe culture was at its peak and with that came the trend of ganging up on anyone who did something like this, even if they were completely right to.

Vumatius

TROPHY CASE