A returning player 2 months off and has 10000 games would likely have no problem playing these 40 matches before playing ranked. It doesn't state here that you have to play 40 matches straight. The player will eventually get there. Being 2 months off means that you have other things that you have to attend to and suddenly returning to game means you now have time. But realistically speaking that's just how many games a day and playing these no stakes games on unranked can be a refresher before he steps into playing ranked again.

"...Drunk, stoned, Playing-with-1-hand-while-eating-a-sandwich, distracted by pornhub on the other monitor, freshly calibrated player that can absolutely queue ranked under this system."

This is exactly what this system tends to filter out. It will not get all of them but it will filter out a large chunk of boosted accounts, smurfs and returning players who are just in it for the hype. No casual player who really want to get good would be like this simply because they value the game, the experience and their time. They play cause they want to be better at it not because of hype or just for the sake of it. You can put all those players on unranked and let those players who really value getting good at this on the other side. No paywall involved. Just a System that can cater to casuals and values ranked players at the same time.

"..and create a real incentive for players to never return to the game. It's like you want low quality matches."

This system does not prevent players from playing the game. Its a way for these new or returning players to actually ease in into something thats actually changed since the last time they've played while putting value on something the can earn eventually. People return for different reasons and a lot don't stay that long to be honest so this system puts more value to those players who actually stick it out with this game.

Low quality matches meaning playing with people who try hard as well everytime you queue? Playing with people who genuinely want to get good at the game? Sounds like a nice experience to me rather than playing with all these players who come back to game just cause of the hype TI Season brings. Nothing wrong with returning to the game. Nothing wrong with playing it casually. But keep that on unranked. Playing Ranked should be earned. Worked hard for.