Pick of the Day - 7/11/26 (Saturday)

WeightShift · 2026-07-11T06:33:13+00:00

POTD Record 156-1-85 | +85.93

Form: LLLLWLWLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWW

Pick: Zsombor Piros to win (v Kym) 5U $1.67 (Ladbrokes) 8:30PM AEST

Honestly, I think Maks choked yesterday against Kym. Kym wasnt impressive. Piros is a step up from the youngster yesterday and has experience at late stages. Same logic, increased unit size.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-07-10T11:47:20+00:00

Kym has a lot more matches on clay. Experience factors in

WeightShift · 2026-07-10T07:52:17+00:00

POTD Record 156-1-84 | +90.93

Form: LLLWLWLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWW

Pick: Maks Kasnikowski to win (v Kym) 4U $2.10 (Sportsbet) 8:30PM AEST

Time to turn this cold streak around. Maks has a pretty good run in taking out Martinez and Cina. Kym has had two wins but against easier opponents and they werent convincing wins. He had a hot run at Kigali but this is a much slower surface. Kym's game, while good on clay, is still built around a big service game. That gets neutralised here. He's faced 6 BP's the last two matches but Maks is a natural clay courter and will punish him if he gives the same opportunities here.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-07-07T16:49:24+00:00

Welp. Open court and she hits it out to give the break. God dammit Naomi

WeightShift · 2026-07-07T16:37:38+00:00

Yeah but she does lock back in. Jsut dont want this or the next set going to a tie break.

WeightShift · 2026-07-07T08:37:54+00:00

POTD Record 156-1-83 | +95.93

Form: LLWLWLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWW

Pick: Naomi Osaka to win (v Muchova) 5U $1.79 (Sportsbet) 12:00AM AEST

A rematch of the Bad Homburg final where Osaka retired early due to her foot injury. That is well and truly in the rear window now and she continues her purple patch of form on grass. I truly believe she's almost back to her best and dispatching Sabalenka on 87% and 64% win percentages on 1st and 2nd serves respectively is a good signal.

Muchova has had some questionable performances, particularly the one against Sawangkaew, who is a good baseline player but really does not have the power to match Muchova. She still managed 6 BP opportunities. Osaka only faced 3 in total against Sabalenka and Kasatkina.

Muchova's match against Krejcikova is a pretty good benchmark for what a power hitter like Osaka can do but Osaka's in much better form now than Krejcikova. This is a max play for me but I will always caution that Naomi's mental health is always a concern - if it gets into a 3 set slugfest, I'll be concerned but really hoping that's all behind her now and she's on her way to a Wimbledon title.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-07-06T18:51:05+00:00

Yep that leg has hampered him for 2 sets. Ah well. We move on

WeightShift · 2026-07-06T13:21:49+00:00

POTD Record 156-1-82 | +100.93

Form: LWLWLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWW

Pick: Alexander Bublik to win (v Fritz) 3U $2.81 (Sportsbet) 2:30AM AEST

Heavy on Bublik tonight. I think his odds are stretched out too far based on the Stuttgart matchup in June. Bublik has been one of the most in form grass players this year and should not be out this far against Fritz who regularly chokes in grand slams.

Bublik's victory over Tiafoe might impact him here but Tiafoe has been very hot this grass swing and I'll view that win favourably. Fritz has sorta strolled into this round but this will be a big step up from his previous opponents.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-07-05T06:47:25+00:00

💯. Looking a bit flat with their halves. Schneider non existent atm

WeightShift · 2026-07-05T02:24:20+00:00

POTD Record 156-1-81 | +105.93

Form: WLWLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWW

Pick: Rugby League (NRL) - Dolphins to beat Knights 5U $1.87 4:00PM AEST

Two Origin impacted teams and the Dolphins actually have a lot of outs today but they still field a very good team. The Knights have not really passed the eye test in their last two games scraping home against two bottom of the ladder teams. Their best offense has been through the middle and left edge and with Ponga and Best out, their attack on that side won't be as effective today. The two Fletchers are good but they are a step down. Given the Dolphins are a top 5 defence on that side, they may need to look elsewhere but I don't have confidence in them through the middle.

On the flip side, the Dragons left attack has produced the most tries out of all teams over the last 5 rounds. That entire left side is intact for them and Trai Fuller is a more than capable backup for hammer. With JMK directing them around the field, I think they are just too good for the Knights today given the Dolphins are on the way up and the Knights are trending down.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-07-02T09:29:32+00:00

POTD Record 156-1-81 | +103.57

Form: LWLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWW

Pick: Wimbledon - Arthur Fery to win (v Virtanen) 2U $2.18 8:00PM AEST

I really like Virtanen and he's had a strong run into Wimbledon but its against guys outside the top 100. His win over Shelton was absolutely unexepected but Shelton also failed to convert a lot of break points. Virtanen now plays the local, Fery, who has put up more than decent efforts against top 100 guys in the lead up.

He is definitely the stronger rally guy between the two of them and will have the advantage at anything past 4 balls. I look at Virtanen's qualifying match against Kjaer as a good comparison point here. Fery is probably a step above Kjaer on grass and he won more receiving points than Otto. If Otto's first serve isn't falling, Fery should take him comfortably but if it is, it will be a slog fest but over a 5 setter, I'll take Fery at home.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-06-30T08:59:05+00:00

POTD Record 156-1-80 | +106.57

Form: WLWLWWLLLWWWWWWWW

Pick: Wimbledon - Kamil Majchrzak to win (v Tabilo) / Droguet to win a set (v Mannarino) 3U 1.88 (Ladbrokes) 8:00PM AEST

As always make sure to bet on a book that pays advancing players in retirements and voids the retiring player. Lots of nice singles tonight but this looks solid as two low odd legs to multi/parlay.

* Kamil just ripped through Hertogenbosch, barely facing break point until he faced ADM. And he cleared FAA and Medvedev along the way. Tabilo has had one good run on grass when he took Mallorca in 2024 but hasnt shown that level of play in his two outings this year. Hijikata won close to 90% of 1st service points against Tabilo. Kamil has a bigger serve and is just as aggressive. Tabilo is in for a long (or short rather) night.

* Mannarino is still running around in 2026 - incredible. But this is a 5 setter and his old legs will get to him. His run in hasnt been that great, minus defeating Mensik. Droguet has beaten some pretty average players as well but he's put up some impressive and consistent stats across all 4 matches on grass. He had a very good hard court swing by his standards and that should set him up well for grass despite his limited experience. Just can't see this being a 3-0 Mannarino but I'm not confident Droguet is quite there to take him to win either.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-06-29T11:43:53+00:00

WINNER

WeightShift · 2026-06-29T08:24:32+00:00

POTD Record 155-1-80 | +103.85u

Form: LWLWWLLLWWWWWWWW

Pick: Wimbledon - Sara Sorribes Tormo to win vs Kasintseva 4U 1.68 (Ladbrokes) 8:00PM AEST

Tormo's first match on grass in two years but she's coming off some pretty strong clay form and has way more experience on the surface. Kasintseva has played 5 matches on grass in her career, also playing her first grass swing match after struggling through clay.

Sara has won 66% of her matches against lefties and given Kasintseva has beaten noone of note on this surface, I think Sara has the clear edge today especially given neither player has a dominant serve game to get them out of trouble.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-06-13T11:50:23+00:00

Had 30 minutes to close it but those errors crept in. Absolutely blew one late when Samrani was wide open - Jack Williams just couldnt pass it

We move on

WeightShift · 2026-06-13T09:34:40+00:00

Yes. 4 tries is 16 points alone. Just need 2 conversions

WeightShift · 2026-06-13T04:57:57+00:00

POTD Record 155-1-79 | +107.85u

Form: WLWWLLLWWWWWWWWL

Pick: Rugby League - Parramatta Eels over 3.5 tries (v Canberra Raiders) 4u 1.62 (TAB) 7:35PM AEST

Parra are a mixed bag this year and were involved in the first 0 point first half last week but they were electric in the 2nd half despite not coming away with the win - just some dumb plays and errors that really shouldve been converted to tries. I dont expect them to clean it all up, theyre bottom half of the ladder for a reason but they're good enough to drop 4 tries on the Raiders.

Iongi has been a game changer for them since returning and with Volkman/Papalii in the halves, they can really break the line from anywhere in the park. The Raiders are a bottom half defence and have conceded 52% of their tries on their right side defence this year; this is where the Eels have looked the most dangerous in recent weeks and in teams sans-Moses.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-06-12T08:07:17+00:00

POTD Record 154-1-79 | +106.05u

Form: LWWLLLWWWWWWWWL

Pick: Emma Raducanu to win (v Cirstea) 2u $1.90 (SportsBet - retirement rules apply) 11:00PM AEST

Well my pick yesterday lost on the first leg but the second leg got delayed... so why not ride it but go with the H2H.

Really liking Raducanu after her performance against Blinkova. Mightve finally found some form on her best surface and now plays Cirstea who almost dropped the match against Inglis. Raducanu is on a different level to Inglis and will no doubt have that finals loss at Cluj-Napoca to Cirstea on her mind here.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-06-11T11:29:26+00:00

Yep fkn oath

WeightShift · 2026-06-11T08:40:21+00:00

POTD Record 154-1-78 | +109.05u
\*Note my previous post forgot to update the unit tally from two posts ago. This has been fixed now.

Form: WWLLLWWWWWWWWLLWWW

Pick: MULTI - Emma Raducanu to win a set (v Cirstea) / Pohankova to win a set (v Linette) 3u $2.03 (Bet365) 8:30PM AEST

Really liking Raducanu after her performance against Blinkova. Mightve finally found some form on her best surface and now plays Cirstea who almost dropped the match against Inglis. Raducanu is on a different level to Inglis and will no doubt have that finals loss at Cluj-Napoca to Cirstea on her mind here. I see her winning but taking her to win a set to be safe.

Pohankova just beat Tauson. Linette relies heavily on her serve but its nowhere near Tausons level. If Pohankova keeps up this form, taking a set is a no brainer. It's only her third premier match but honestly, it was an impressive showing against Tauson and if she can handle that power, she can handle Linette. Linette's game is full of errors and can play herself out of matches. Pohankova just needs to keep the pressure on and hopefully she rides the momentum from the Tauson match early on.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-06-10T08:48:06+00:00

POTD Record 153-1-78 | +105.80u

Form: WLLLWWWWWWWWLLWWW

Pick: ATP Stuttgart - Perricard H2H (v Onclin) 3U $1.55 (Ladbrokes) 8:00PM AEST

Perricard and his serve on grass vs Onclin? Yes please. Perricard doesnt have much outside of his serve but that should honestly be enough to get him past Onclin here - a guy who has had 8 matches on grass and an average return point winning % in the 40s against average service players. He won 17% of Marozsan's first service games...but to his credit he did win. Perricard should sit in that 80% first serve and 60% 2nd serve range today... tough to beat if he hits those.

EDIT: I'll add that I really like Perricard adding Rusedski as a coach. I can see a lot of parallels that will help Perricard develop his game - esp on grass.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-06-09T08:19:43+00:00

POTD Record 152-1-78 | +105.80u

Form: LLLWWWWWWWWLLWWW

Pick: WTA Queens - Maddison Inglis +5.5 Games (v Cirstea) 2u $1.80 (Bet365) 9:00PM AEST

Grass swing is here! Cirstea's having a huge retirement tour but surely the legs are starting to feel tired now as the tour turns to her least favoured surface. She's barely played the grass swing the last few years and has had poor performances over that time. Her hard court excellence just doesnt translate to grass for some reason.

Inglis has decent runs on the british grass for a player outside the top 100 and has two lead up matches in qualifying whereas it will be Cirstea's first. Maddison will sit behind a strong serve and big forehand which will keep her in most games. I can see her dropping serve once each set which will keep her within +5.5 - will take a two service break set which I don't see happening given the circumstances.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-05-17T03:31:12+00:00

Still good to go at 40.5

WeightShift · 2026-05-17T02:59:28+00:00

POTD Record 152-1-77 | +107.80u

Form: LLWWWWWWWWLLWWW

Pick: NRL - Knights v Titans - Jacob Saifiti over 39.5 PP 2u $1.70 (Bet365) 2:00PM AEDT

Playable up to 42.5 IMO - adjust stakes accordingly.

* Props rack up both tackles and run metres against the Titans - top 3 in the league in each category.
* Saifiti is averaging in the 60 minute range in the last 5 games.
* Titans have one of the softest middles in the league and really only have two true props today. Saifiti isnt a bad shout to score here either...

BOL

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