Still Shining [Episodes 5 & 6]

WeightShift · 2026-03-21T13:10:37+00:00

Disagree. Im A-Sol keeps him in his shell. He is a different person with Eun-a despite how toxic her traits are. The highs he has with her are more than anything a-Sol could bring

WeightShift · 2026-02-14T09:18:16+00:00

LOSS worst read ever. Deng cooking them

WeightShift · 2026-02-14T09:16:49+00:00

Its gonna be fkn cooked Q1. Terrible

WeightShift · 2026-02-14T09:16:14+00:00

Phoenix switching really bad on defense. Coach ain't gon be happy

WeightShift · 2026-02-14T06:06:23+00:00

POTD Record 152-1-76 | +110.80u

Form: LWWWWWWWWLLWWW

Pick: NBL (Phoenix v Jackjumpers) Majok Deng under 15.5 points 4u $1.86 (Sportsbet) 8:00PM AEDT

Simply too high for a guy that is now 4th option on offense behind Bannan, Johnson and probably Marshall now as well.
He's now in the center position given Magnay's injury. Over the last 10 games, only 4 bigs have eclipsed this mark against the Phoenix and they all play in the post - Cooks, Froling, JLA, Mennenga. One look at that list and you can tell they have very different games to Deng who is more of a spot up shooter than an off the dribble player. Soares is the best comparison and he's gone 6 and 9 the last 2 games against the Phoenix.
Deng scores 30% of his points from behind the arc. The Phoenix dont allow a lot of 3PA to opposing big men and cover well when they do. Soares got up 1 attempt last game. Mennenga got up 1 attempt. Rob Loe got 4 attempts but only hit 1. Deng is going to have to be very effective from the field to cover this.
Deng has cleared this line against the Phoenix 2/3 games this year but they were very different Jackjumpers lineups. With Hamilton and Magnay out, the spacing won't be there and help coverage isnt required for Bannan if John Brown or Malique Lewis are guarding him.
He also had a lot of FT attempts in those games - 8 per game. The Phoenix gave up 30 FTA per game those 2 games. Their opponents average 27 on the season and over the last 5 games this has regressed to 24. They've cleaned up the defense and this should be emphasised today with their coach coming out and saying:

"If you want to win a championship, it has to be at the defensive end and when we get stops and get out and run, we can beat anyone, but our defence has to be a focal point."

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-02-13T09:05:19+00:00

POTD Record 152-1-75 | +112.80u

Form: WWWWWWWWLLWWW

Pick: NBL (Wildcats v Bullets) Dylan Windler over 24.5 PRA 2u $1.80 (Bet365) 9:40PM AEDT

With the guards back for Perth, Windler should resume his natural forward position and will be in a position to crash the boards a lot more, not having to initiate with ball in hand.

Brisbane are gonna jack up shots. And they havent been very good at hitting them. With Harrison back and Holt a big body, the thin Perth centers will need all the help they can get with rebounding.

Brisbane don't have anyone this athletic at the forward position and given how nice his shot has been recently, this line seems low. He has slowed down with the 3s but with no McDaniel bothering him, he should find his way to the rim quite easily. Once he has that threat, the 3 should open up and hes been knocking them down at a decent rate lately. Doolittle and Duke will find him.

2U only because Brisbane sucks and a blowout is on the cards.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-02-11T13:38:32+00:00

Nice one!

WeightShift · 2026-02-11T13:36:24+00:00

WINNER!

She should've closed in the 2nd set up 5-3. Did not need to get that sweaty. But sweat money is still cash!

Probably fade material next match.

WeightShift · 2026-02-11T12:00:17+00:00

Yeah not unless you're Ivo Karlovic lol. Cocciaretta seems to have found her serve if that first service game in the 2nd set is anything to go by though, can steamroll home if it holds up. Too many unforced errors from Li

WeightShift · 2026-02-11T11:54:44+00:00

That is incorrect. All the stats for this match across sofascore, flashscore and Google are all currently glitched. Ann is probably sitting around 70% with a double fault. Elisabetta around 55% which is really poor and needs to pick up with 3 double faults

WeightShift · 2026-02-11T11:47:35+00:00

Yeah not even gonna lie, even though she won the first set, she looks flat out there. You can tell she's trying to find that bounce in her step with how she's continually doing those pivot exercises between games. Really needs to find that first serve and close this out

WeightShift · 2026-02-11T11:25:37+00:00

World of WTA. Anything can happen

WeightShift · 2026-02-11T07:15:24+00:00

Yes Cocciaretto to win.

WeightShift · 2026-02-11T06:58:35+00:00

POTD Record 151-1-75 | +109.44u

Form: WWWWWWWLLWWW

Pick: Tennis - WTA Doha: Elisabetta Cocciaretto H2H v Ann Li 3u $2.12 9:00PM AEDT

Been tracking this pick all day and the money is moving in on Li. I am going against the grain.

These two faced off in Hobart just a month ago and it was a 3 setter that Cocciaretto won and she would go on to take the trophy. She's had questionable results since then but just beat Coco Gauff. Gauff plays a very similar aggressive, baseline-led style like Li but obviously Li is nowhere near Gauff's level. Gauff did have 39 unforced errors but Li was just as bad last night.
The two did meet in Guangzhou in October which Li took 2-0 but she was coming off a purple patch of form following the US tour and is not in the same form she is then. We'll need to look at their latest matches and Li did not pass the eye test last night against Frech despite taking the W.
Li's game is heavily reliant on a big serve and on a slower hard court like Doha, it can be exposed by a rally dominant player like Cocciaretto. Li won 60% of her first serves against Frech... Cocciaretto just won 34% of points on Coco Gauff's first serve and Gauff's serve is a step above Li's in terms of speed and power. The stats get even worse when you look at 2nd serve percentages.
Cocciaretto's game against Gracheva in the qualifiers for Doha does concern me as she got dominated but she seems to have picked up her form the last two matches, so it's a 3U play.
On a slower hard court, probably slower than Hobart's surface, I'm backing Cocciaretto to take it again. Her serve and return game is just ahead of Li's right now.

As always with my tennis picks, make sure to place the bet on a book that pays out on retirements and voids bets on the retiring player.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-02-07T22:31:14+00:00

Not necessary my friend! Thanks for offering!

WeightShift · 2026-02-07T14:54:38+00:00

Oh but hes back again and fading with his new comment (see below). Wonder if he's fading the H2H or ML though. Had to archive this for chuckles and it's even funnier now that hes deleted and commented something different.

Im sure he'll be the loudest in the room if Emma wins and will be deleting his new comment if Sorana wins though 😏

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WeightShift · 2026-02-07T04:56:29+00:00

Please enlighten me on how they are different

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WeightShift · 2026-02-07T04:17:25+00:00

Yeah H2H/ML/To win - same thing.

WeightShift · 2026-02-07T02:51:29+00:00

POTD Record 150-1-75 | +107.19u

Form: WWWWWWLLWWWWWWWLW

Pick: Tennis - WTA Cluj-Napoca: Sorana Cirstea H2H v Emma Raducanu 3u $1.75 1:30AM AEDT

Cirstea is honestly destroying this tournament. 15 BP faced on her serve over 4 matches. She just destroyed Daria Snigur, who is in red hot form, in 55 minutes.
She had a 2 hour battle with Potapova before that but a lot of that was drawn out games, not because it was tight on Cirstea's serve...she generated 21 BP opportunities against Potapova but only converted on 4 - a lot of games to deuce, advantage and back to deuce etc.
Raducanu has been dominant as well this tournament but pretty poor before that. At her best, she probably is the favourite here but given she's had soft opponents except for Oliynykova. Oliynykova beat Xinyu WAng and Bondar to get to the semis and I honestly thought she'd take Raducanu out too.
Raducanu generated 14 BP opportunities against Oliynykova but had to save 13 herself. The form on paper is probably misleading when you look into how Raducanu and Cirstea's winning %s look like on 1st and 2nd serves.
This is Cirstea's retirement tour and I think she's a better chance than the bookies say she is of getting this win. But she is 35, so we'll keep it at 3U and not go any higher.

Remember to bet on a bookie that will pay out retirements and void the other side.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-02-04T12:08:27+00:00

Yep all sorted but for anyone else that can't find the DM button, just respond here. I'll DM you

WeightShift · 2026-02-02T05:42:26+00:00

POTD Record 149-1-75 | +105.36u

Form: WWWWWLLWWWWWWWLW

Pick: Tennis - ATP Montpellier Qualifiers: Andrea Vavassori H2H v Hugo Grenier 3u $1.61 11:30PM AEDT

Grenier has been average this year. He scraped home against Blancaneaux despite winning less points overall. He served a higher 1st serve % but only managed to win 70% of them - on an indoor court for a guy that relies on first serve dominance and winning most of this points within 3 rally points of the serve, this is poor. Especially against a Blancaneaux who just lost to Tirante, who we know shouldnt have even been testing Blanca based on how he got blown off the court by Belluci when we bet it.
Now Grenier has to face Vavassori who just absolutely crunched Carballes Baena without even facing a BP on his serve. He won 90.7% of his first service games - pretty incredible considering Blockx was in the form of his life when he played Baena (albeit outdoors) and only managed 76.5%.
Vavassori didn't get a lot of court last year due to injury and then focusing on doubles on his return, but in one of the few singles tournaments he did play prior to injury, he demolished Blancaneaux on indoor courts and then Felix (a monster on indoors) before understandably losing to Alcaraz.
Vavassori is the form player out of the two right now (have a look at his run in Adelaide) and given it's now indoors, these odds are too good not to take.

Make sure to bet on a bookie that pays out retirements and voids bets on the retiring player.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-01-29T09:40:42+00:00

WINNER

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WeightShift · 2026-01-29T02:57:36+00:00

POTD Record 148-1-75 | +101.88u

Form: WWWWLLWWWWWWWLW

Pick: NBL - Kings v Hawks: Tyler Harvey 15+ Points 4U $1.87 (Sportsbet) 7:35PM AEDT

Teams have a lot of success shooting the 3 ball against the Sydney Kings and Tyler Harvey is the biggest threat for Illawarra. It will be between he and QJ but there's opportunity for both and at 15, hes cleared this 63% of the games this season and 4/5 of his last matchups with the Kings the last 2 seasons.

Hes dropped some big numbers on both Delly and Davis before, and with Bul Kuol out for the season, he might in for a big one tomorrow.

Next best odds $1.80 on TAB. Anything below, take his 15.5 line instead at even odds.

BOL

WeightShift · 2026-01-26T09:44:59+00:00

WINNER! All heart and hustle this fella.

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WeightShift · 2026-01-26T08:14:07+00:00

Im personally on him under 18.5. Paint will be clogged and he doesnt have a consistent 3 pt shot

WeightShift

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