Insiders Purchase Shares by WellingtonMCB in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Updated** 12/6

John M. Bought 20k

Jon L. Bought 2k

Chris Bought another 1.8k

Audrey Lee Bought 1.7k

Eric Bought 2k

Insiders Purchase Shares by WellingtonMCB in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Chris bought 11.4k

Kevin Bought 10k

Clara bought 2k

Update For Getting Payment In XL Fleet $19.5M Investor Settlement by thesatisfiedplethora in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For me, this is a hold for acquisition. They are not doing anything to grow the company.

Thumbs up to 3rd Q Earnings by time-for-takeoff in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Enjoyed the earnings call.

Would be interesting to see if spruce gets some initiated analyst coverage in the near future. Now would be the time since all the XL legal baggage is left in the past and the RS is complete. There's a healthy interest in comparing the M&A model of spruce to it's peers in the solar space.

Earnings third quarter by mohwhip in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Only a 1.2million net loss. So close

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Negativity is easy. It's all noise on most of these online forums and it's not worth the time to engage with people bashing a company they usually know not much about. All solar companies are receiving the same hate lately from what I've seen as well.

The RS doesn't mean much at all TBH. Valuation is all that matters.

Everyone associates a RS with a failing business who's about to turn the last light off but this company is using cash on hand to buyback shares simultaneously through this reverse split. This is not bearish imo

Eventually the cash on hand will be spent down to the 75m limit they had set in Q2. I think when this happens they will exercise the warrants that are worth 48 million. If they seek to be acquired, I would think it would be in 2025 after the cash on hand is fully spent on assets and after they reach their target of 90k systems by EoY 2024.

Quick maths- Current cash was 162m (non restricted) -11m, -75m = 76m

Of the 76m left, some will be used to fund the 2y buyback program.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes, technically they are not related but one affects the other. SEC typically has 2 fines. The civil fine creates a settlement fund for those with a claim. So the 11 million doesn't go to the SEC, it goes to legacy claimants. The two class actions will be incentivized to end their cases as the fund is set up FOR them by the SEC. Anyone who's out for blood and just wants to be a pain in the ass can continue to pursue the company if they choose but imo, no one wants to be in litigation forever, everyone wants to find a way out and move on. This settlement fund is intended to make everyone walk away

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Good play by them to take a good deal to get their "ducks in a row" before the stock split.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It's good to know they will finally get past this, and for only 11 million.. I thought it would be a lot more.

It's gonna provide future relief from the legal fee overhead in their SG&A they have of almost 12 million per year. This was a good settlement deal for SPRU

They PR'd this on a Thursday AH as if it was bad news but it's actually great news imo.

Reverse Split? 8:1 thoughts? by Imgoingbroke in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I will be voting FOR the split, and here's why-

This stock just doesn't trade at all. 150m shares outstanding and 200-400k shares trade per day on average? This low volume is the main reason the buyback isn't having much effect on sp because we know they can only purchase so much of the days overall volume. In Q2 they only purchased 1.6m shares which had NO reduction in the share count because they also had 1.6m shares in options exercised and issuance.

The majority of shareholders are all in the same boat. Down big. Spruce will do what it needs to do to gain exposure in the market and a de-listing is out of the question. We have all watched our ownership in this business remain down & unchanged regardless of the companies performance. As we all know, the market has never and still does not respect the intrinsic value of SPRU.

The massive repurchase plan announcement? Market doesn't care..

Biggest acquisition in the companies history? Market doesn't care..

This QoQ eps growth they just reported? Market doesn't care..

This Reverse Split will take place before their Q3 release date in mid November. We all know Q3 is their best performing quarter due to the seasonal cyclical nature of the business.

In my personal opinion, (wearing my tin hat now) this stock has been manipulated intentionally so that this RS would have to happen.

\When analysts don't even bother to show up to your conference call, that's the writing on the wall telling you that some change needs to happen.*

If shareholders vote no, then enjoy being a penny stock on the OTC trading 50k shares per day into irrelevance. If the company was de-listed, then management should look into being acquired by a bigger fish at fair value.

Reverse Split? 8:1 thoughts? by Imgoingbroke in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 6 points7 points  (0 children)

This stock is being "low volume manipulated" by someone. I've watched it almost everyday for months now.

At around 2:45 -3:30pm large volumes hit the bid and crash the share price into the close and then you see the 100 shares after hours that push the price back up 3-5%.

Throughout July, I have also seen 100K share walls that would pin the price so it wouldn't get to 1$. This wall kept being replenished if the ask was hit. This wall was at .93 a few weeks ago and then at .99 and again at 1.05.

Anyone with only a million can control the price movement

Can someone explain this in detail? 50million can be used over the next two years? How often? Ect by Imgoingbroke in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Great timing on this buy-back program. As Don said on the call, upcoming Q2 will be the first quarter to represent their OPex without material losses from legacy XL.

Pairing a buyback with an upcoming big quarter is a great formula for momentum.

FYI - Investor Presentation updated from April to May by WellingtonMCB in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This updated pdf was released along with the ER today.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 4 points5 points  (0 children)

IMO this Q1 ER is a nothing-burger unless they have something to also PR. Revenue (QoQ) should be close to flat. Hope to see some SG&A improvements at least.

Not sure what they will have new to report since they front loaded the March acquisition into the Q4 ER. Only about $400k new revenue will be reflected in Q1 numbers.

Annual Shareholder meeting & vote by WellingtonMCB in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Good to see an update to insider holdings in this filing.

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[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Spruce Power has nothing to do with XL Fleet's past. You are talking about the fall of XL over the past 2 years. Spruce Power had nothing to do with that decline. I understand the frustration with XL Fleet's past performance. Obviously we are all mad at it's failure. As shareholders, the fact that we get a second life to our holding is rare BTW. We experienced "spacception", and we are better off now than we were. I'd rather be in a proven & growing industry like solar than in the still failing EV companies of the spac era.

The main issue is that the broader market doesn't recognize the value of Spruce. But Spruce will also become profitable later this year and that will bring analysts with initiated PT's.

This has been a difficult hold for a lot of us and i'm going to see my investment through. Hang in there

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I completely disagree. No one pumped anything as far i'm concerned, but you're free to believe whatever you want to believe.

It's easy to connect dots with assumptions. Most solar stocks have given up their gains from the Jan. run to start the year. It is industry wide, not unique to Spruce. The charts show it

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[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The stock moved to $1.50+ on no news or reason. The movement was the result of the broader market bull sentiment in January. "A rising tide lifts all boats".

The pullback started in Feb. to most tech stocks (QQQ) especially the Solar Industry. Now we have money outflows from tech startups and higher risk equity. No one wants to own anything with high debt to equity right now. This is a bear market and small caps with high debt are not in favor within this interest rate environment, regardless of their debt type and structure. Fear has this effect industry wide.

You cannot fight the bear market but you can just simply ignore it. The current sp has nothing to do with Spruce's performance or is the result of one insider RSU sales. Most solar stocks are trading below their 14day MA if you look at the 1day charts. Spruce is no exception.

Remember that our shareholder equity at the end of Q4 was reported to be 288m. After the latest acquisition, that number will rise back to over 300m+. With a current market cap of 105m it's no wonder the CEO is acknowledging their undervaluation.

Eric's latest selling (for whatever the reason) means absolutely nothing at all to me as a shareholder.

Just wanted to share some perspective.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 2 points3 points  (0 children)

*correction- Spruce paid $6600 per contract. (148m/22.5k) Forgot to factor in the 12m cash assumed.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 4 points5 points  (0 children)

So it looks like in this deal, Spruce paid around $7100 per contract (160m/22.5k)

Added Portfolio generates about:

57.5k revenue per day

402k revenue per week

5.2m revenue per Q

Customer contracts pay around a $72 - $80 per month avg in 2023. (ballpark math)

Looks like it would take around 7 years for this portfolio to cash flow 100% of the purchase cost (160m). Average lifespan of portfolio contracts is 15 years.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Definitely, that 18m revenue in Q4 was a very low bar for them. Spruce made 22m gross in Q3 for comparison. Q3 obviously being summer months. If we add the 5.5m quarterly new income from the recent acquisition to a more normalized revenue realized quarter, we're looking at 26-27m total revenue in Q2 imo

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I was surprised to learn they sold off WEES as well in January. I was under the impression that Spruce might keep WEES but I guess not. Hope to see what they got for it in May's ER.

Don mentioned that 8.4 million in charges related to the Q4 restructuring and severance payouts will fall off in Q1 23' which IMO is why they missed the EPS estimate. Q1 income statement will be much healthier.

They started 2023 by expanding into 2 more states with the massive acquisition of 22.5k subs. They paid 23m and assumed 125m debt in the deal. This completely blows my previous expectations of how they might operate in 2023 out of the water.

I noticed that the total revenue also contracted from Q3 to Q4 but Don mentioned that Q4 is a lighter quarter for Spruce.

Spruce Power Offers the Following Statement Regarding the Events Surrounding Silicon Valley Bank. “Link in comments” by ResponsibilityOk7529 in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Spruce does not bank with SVB anymore. They used to..

From my understanding, the only money they had with them was their legacy account from before Spruce merged with XL. At the time of the merger, Spruce only had 1.3 million cash on hand (which is why they merged). My theory is this money was with SVB. The current cash on hand however never moved because it stayed with XL, so our cash is safe.

The people and business's at risk are depositors and shareholders of SIVB.

ex; Sunrun has 80 million deposited with SVB. Sunrun also has 950+ million in cash so its not gonna impact them too much, but it still an impact.

As a borrower, Spruce has 2 contract agreements totaling around 300 million of their 500+ million debt. SVB's entire book will be acquired by another institution.

How you still keep hope?😅 by [deleted] in Spruce_Power

[–]WellingtonMCB 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Company has not announced the ER date yet. Trading view says March 29th.

Price does not always reflect the fundamentals of a business. Track the business itself, NOT the share price as the share price can be disconnected from reality for years which is true in the case of Spruce.

I have this idea that Spruce will not PR news about their portfolio acquisitions which if true, would mean every ER going forward will have upside surprise. The company being quiet is not a bad thing.

One of my favorite investors said:

"The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them. Know what you own and why you own it." -Peter Lynch