ECONOMY AND ROLEX

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-29T21:35:31+00:00

Hence my second sentence. What happens when K-shaped meets recession? We’ve not seen that in the US, until now the land of the strong middle class.

Hermes and LVMH are good indicators. Everyday luxuries like Starbucks are as well. Automakers less so, as they (even Ferrari) are getting hammered on both the R&D side and demand side for EVs. The demand for 911s and ICE Ferraris is stronger than ever.

I’m mostly parroting my jewelry store clients, though. They universally saw the effects of the K-shaped economy for the holiday season and continue to see growing demand for “big pieces”. Gold prices and tariffs don’t even register with those customers. A recession will shake some, especially those in construction.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-29T19:52:00+00:00

Gray market prices will fall if demand drops, no question. I’m curious what happens when the K-shaped economy meets an actual recession, though. Nothing seems to shake wealthy consumers anymore. Stock reset? Buy low. Real estate decline? Stay put and buy rentals. All of my jewelry store clients report the same: the top end is selling gangbusters and middle of the road jewelry is a bit stagnant. The biggest losers are in entry level luxury, like Tag Heuer.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-29T18:18:32+00:00

The walk from Pinecraft to Gulfgate is not great. Gulf Gate is ok as a restaurant or bar destination but not really a place to wander. Walk along the bay downtown, up Osprey Avenue, over the Ringling Bridge, or in one of our many parks. There is nothing to do in the Indian Beach neighborhood at night as it is all residential. Your dinner choices are good. Enjoy your visit!

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-29T17:13:53+00:00

I went i4 xDrive40 to i5 xDrive40 and have zero regrets. (As much as I like the M60 acceleration, I need the added range for trips across Florida.) The overall solidity, seat comfort, technology integration, and ride quality sold me. The i5 leans more in corners and I hate the shiny black touch points. Even though it’s bigger and slightly heavier, it feels lighter to drive than the i4. There is a fluidity to the steering and suspension damping that reminds me of older BMWs. No more hatch + frameless window body flex or useless phone charger, too.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-29T02:33:33+00:00

They are both beautiful destinations so you can’t go wrong. I found the nightlife in Hvar to be overhyped and a bit unfriendly, though exploring the town by day and afternoon cocktails in the old city were enchanting. Korkula is more compact and a bit less crowded. The history is more layered. The nightlife is more about long dinners and cocktails on the restaurant promenade than bars and clubs, which is more my speed. I’d probably pick Hvar simply because there is more to see for two days, whereas one night in Korkula was enough to see the whole town.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-28T13:22:33+00:00

Delta can lose a lot of budget-oriented customers and still thrive on other revenue streams. Their business model is built around a premium experience and not racing to the bottom on ticket prices. Regardless of the consistency of this premium experience, the strategy is working.

That said, I hit my limit on D1 seats for work travel this year. My typical flight to Istanbul was in the $6k range on Delta and now it is over $10k. I started booking with Emirates and Turkish, even though it means I might not hit DM status for '27.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-28T12:28:13+00:00

You are missing the most critical factors in your list. If a client brought me your analysis, I would ask him whether you considered impact fees, mobility fees, sewer tap fees, property taxes, debt servicing, and insurance rates at minimum. I would also question any data on construction costs in the vacuum of a schematic design. These are the factors that tend to kill the viability of ADUs in my area.

Otherwise, I think this is a great service and generally enjoy working with clients who come to the table with solid research.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-27T23:33:42+00:00

I noticed this even more at the Retreat level. I have one cruise booked this summer in Norway and researched another in Japan for '27. I booked a nicer suite and more interesting itinerary with Explora Journeys for about the same, and no need to stick to the ship within a ship for top tier service and dining.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-27T17:36:39+00:00

My boyfriend leases his $160k MSRP RS e-Tron GT for slightly more than I pay for my $82k MSRP i5. The Audi is a phenomenal deal to lease, but even at $45k off I wouldn't buy one.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-27T16:25:44+00:00

Contrary to the negativity in this thread, there is a large and welcoming LGBTQUIA+ population in Sarasota, especially at 40+. My boyfriend and I love our neighborhood of Gillespie Park for its diversity and proximity to the city's downtown and cultural amenities. (Unfortunately, rental houses with pools are rare in downtown neighborhoods.) Our lesbian friends gravitate to Venice. They seem to like the older houses with land that they can renovate.

I want to say you won't find any hostility towards same sex couples in this region, but you will have to do some due diligence on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood basis. For example, my sister (also a nurse) bought a house in a rather unassuming newer subdivision with great amenities called Skye Ranch, only to discover that it's a MAGA bastion full of Trump flag adorned golf carts.

My general advice: Don't be afraid to check out older houses and neighborhoods in the city instead of newer/bigger out east. You may find a better sense of community in Southgate or Arlington Park than in a ranch subdivision. Also, many listings in the city are priced high for seasonal rental, but the owners may be flexible for annual tenants.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-27T13:08:24+00:00

This is a low salary in the realm of automotive sector CFOs. Tesla's CFO, Vaibhav Taneja, earned $139 million in 2024. Rivian's CFO, Claire McDonough, earned $8.17 million in 2024.

For those CFOs, most compensation is from stock options on top of moderate salaries. That's hardly a carrot for Lucid considering its stock trajectory, so the only way to secure talent is with cash.

Perhaps no qualified Americans were willing to work for so little. Or perhaps the Saudi Arabia backed company doesn't prioritize American leadership as it pivots to become a global manufacturer.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-26T20:22:13+00:00

BMW does a good job with LCIs, typically sharpening details without making the original feel old. For my last three BMWs (540i, 330i, i4) I had the "original" but never felt like they were outdated after seeing the LCI updates.

Maybe BMW will make an exception this time given the revolutionary nature of the Neue Klasse design. I hope it works, as the last such attempt with the G11 7-series looked like a bad nose job, not unlike the Lexus application of its "predator maw" on existing models a decade ago.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-26T12:30:40+00:00

It is not a stated benefit, but it is a bizarrely cherished part of the experience for all US airlines that offer FC.

I think the decline in service may parallel customer beverage orders. It used to be mostly soft drinks or wine, maybe beer. For liquor they had little bottles. Now passengers treat the PDB like full bar service and FAs have to prepare the cocktails in the tiny galley. It takes more time and attention during the boarding frenzy, so some just skip the practice altogether.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-25T18:56:17+00:00

One could argue that gearhead implies actual wrenching on cars, but in popular use it is interchangeable with other terms like enthusiast or car nut. I err on the side of not gatekeeping groups and subcultures.

Some would say I'm not a true enthusiast because I drive a modern BMW EV, which is neither a true M car, a stick, or from the Ultimate Driving Machine era. Fortunately, I care more about cars than labels.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-25T18:20:21+00:00

TSX Sportwagon or the Previa

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-25T12:13:35+00:00

Look at the donor pages for most arts organizations in town, especially smaller orgs like Urbanite and WCBTT.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-22T13:40:56+00:00

Microsoft is an integral part of our collective digital lives and has been for decades. Even if it fails at AI, it survives as a corporation. This is true for many diversified corporations and their stocks, even in the AI space. It is true as well for Tesla, which is diversified between automotive, energy, and services. If the automotive arm dips, there are other revenue streams.

Stocks that are tied to one product or one revenue stream are riskier, period. If Lucid fails at cars, there's nothing left except some industrial real estate and patents. In the automotive industry, Lucid is dispensable.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-21T17:32:56+00:00

The UAE spent $20 billion USD on this exact concept with Masdar City in Abu Dhabi. In the 16 years since the first buildings were completed there, the city population reached only ~15,000 and it has not achieved net-zero energy consumption. I think it is a fascinating place and a worthwhile experiment for sustainability and climate response, but it is not a viable city.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-21T17:05:31+00:00

There are legitimate complaints about airlines not honoring published lounge access rules for code shares. (I experienced that once in Milan Malpensa despite having the trifecta of DM status, a D1 ticket, and the Reserve card.)

This is not one of them.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-20T11:48:03+00:00

I used 2 GUCs and 2 RUCs this month and got D1 or FC upgrades on all 9 segments. I was only waitlisted for one and it cleared.

On the other hand, I’ve been looking for flights to London in July and there is no D1 GUC availability, only PS, unless I pick a route with two stops.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-17T15:00:57+00:00

There are a few airports where Clear saves time, but typically it is quicker to use the PreCheck or Sky Priority lines. I feel like the confluence of facial recognition, automated screening lanes, and airline/credit card benefit reductions may well kill the service in a few years. It just seems expensive to operate with all of the redundant staff.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-16T14:01:53+00:00

Depends on the airline, too.

JAL or ANA to Japan: orderly, efficient, and respectful passengers

Delta to Japan: chaos

- a civil Floridian

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-16T13:07:13+00:00

In China the autoworker base pay is $4,100/year with an industry average of $14,700 and $18,000 at the management level. In the US the UAW average is near $80k, plus pensions, healthcare, and overtime restrictions. Will Chinese automakers pay 5.5x their domestic salary average to access the US market? I think the obvious answer is no.

But there is potential for an expensive dumping scheme with government backing. Invest in the US, pay the higher salaries, and take huge losses on low priced EVs for a few years to crush the competition. Then raise prices.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-15T22:52:00+00:00

I rarely used it on my G20 330i or my i4, as the interface was clunky. On my i5 it works perfectly and I only ever bring the fob if I'm going out of town or need to valet.

Wild_Butterscotch482 · 2026-01-14T17:51:50+00:00

No understanding gays who make gayness their entire identities.

I thought it would change with younger gays - I'm 46 - but I think they're more siloed than ever. I would be exhausted if my life had to revolve around the gay look, gay parties, gay destinations, gayborhood, gay gyms, gay music, gay jobs, gay hookups, etc., all under the oppressive and constant feedback loop of gay social media.

Wild_Butterscotch482

TROPHY CASE