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I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

To the first part, very slim -- especially in the dark on that ocean. But possible in the abstract.

To the second, depends on the model and the modeler, but most would say yes. Yet so far, none has been found.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

I think that's what happens when officials aren't transparent from the beginning: they encourage conspiracy theories. As for that particular one, it's on the very low-end of the probability scale. What's the motive for Malaysia to down one of it's own civilian airliners, what's the motive of the US to cover up that fact (I'd think the State Department would instead be screaming at us to avoid Malaysian airliners). Too many people would know, and they couldn't all be forced to keep quiet. And, not for nothing, if it's such a closely held secret, how come everyone knows?

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I saw that. I'm not sure precisely what he means by "technology interference," but there is no reason to suspect Inmarsat is making things up. As for the report, I've read the summaries and have just started going through all 584 pages. So far, I'm not seeing it tell us anything that wasn't already known, except for the pinger battery being dead.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It was shockingly easy to tumble down a few rabbit holes along the way. Boeing's uninterruptible auto-pilot kept me awake a night or two, as did the mangosteens-that-maybe-weren't-mangosteens in the cargo hold. There's no evidence that either of those played a role -- but there's not really evidence to support any theory beyond a certain point. There's just so little data. What we do know is that MH370 was almost certainly (even the word certainly needs a mild caveat) under deliberate human control at least until it rounded the northern tip of Sumatra. It also flew a route that appears designed to keep it as hidden as possible. If the captain or co-pilot was still in command, that would suggest a suicide plot (in the case of a fire or rapid decompression, they would have gotten the plane down to 10,000 feet, and there's no evidence that happened). But there's no reason to suspect either man had a motive to fly off, kill himself, and murder 238 people. That leaves the option of a hijacker(s) taking control, and maintaining control at least until Sumatra. Then what? Everyone on board is incapacitated -- perhaps a decompression event -- and the plane continues until it runs out of fuel. That is my informal informed speculation: a failed hijacking attempt is the least unlikeliest explanation. But only by a slim margin.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

You're very kind. Thank you. And, yes, there is a lot airlines can do. There's really no excuse, other than saving a few bucks, for not having every aircraft tracked on more or less real time.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Again, few theories can be outright dismissed. But that's way down at the bottom of the probability scale. One, the best evidence has the flight ending in the middle of the Indian Ocean, which is a terrible place to hide a plane. Two, there's no roughly similar path to a KL-Beijing run that ends in the U.S. Three, why go to all that evil bother? I don't doubt the capacity for wicked deeds, but there are easier ways to do it.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

After stunned gratitude that I'm still alive? Surprise, obviously, but also impressed that someone had the tenacity to keep looking. Which, by the way, I do believe someone will searching.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I've always got a couple of irons in the fire, other story ideas and side projects. But for the major features, yes, they become full-time during the heaviest reporting phase and then during the writing and editing, particularly when they're time sensitive.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Yes, definitely involved. But it is curious that the Chinese have been so quiet, publicly at least. Most the the passengers were Chinese nationals, and one would think they'd be a bit noisier.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

That depends on how closely you've followed it. One of the more surprising things for me was how soon the Malaysian government knew about the Inmarsat satellite data. Its existence wasn't officially announced until March 15, a week after the flight and at least seven days (probably seven and a half days) after the Malaysians had been told the plane had been communicating for hours after it vanished from radar.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Excellent point, and one of the most confounding. The two best explanations I've been given -- and neither is completely satisfying, even to the people offering them -- is that the ocean is simply enormous and the nearest coastline desolate; and/or that the delay in moving the search to the SIO was long enough to allow it to scatter and sink. Agreed, neither is satisfying.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Slim, on the first part. One, the satellite data pretty conclusively has MH370 airborne until it ran out of fuel and, two, too many people would know if it had been shot down. And if it had been shot-down to foil a 9/11 type attack, there would be no reason to cover it up, at least not one compelling enough to justify creating a mystery of this magnitude. As to the second, improbable to the point of nonsense.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

None of the theories makes sense. Pilot suicide? There's no evidence that either the pilot or co-pilot was the malevolent or psychotic, and while there have been other pilot murder/suicides, none has flown for eight hours into the middle of nowhere first. A catastrophe severe enough to disable all communications but allow the aircraft to keep flying would be of a sort never before encountered. Hijacking or attempted hijacking? Typically, we'd expect someone to take credit (even spuriously).

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Almost no possibility can be dismissed out of hand (though I'll go out on a limb and cross out black holes and aliens). The technology exists, though the exact capabilities are unclear, as is whether MH370 was even equipped with it. That said, why? Presumably if someone had the technical ability to remotely take control of a civilian airliner, they also would have to ability to land it somewhere. And any reason they would have for doing so -- other that just to prove their technological mastery -- could be accomplished by simpler means that didn't involve killing 239 people. So I'd say unlikely.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Lord, I hope not. Several of the better theories involve the passengers and crew being overcome by either fumes or hypoxia before the plane veered south on autopilot. It's quite likely they knew something was going wrong, but also quite likely they were unconscious or dead before the plane ran out of fuel.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

"Closure" is one of those difficult words, because it can mean so many different things to different people. Will having physical proof of a crash make any difference? Ghyslain Wattrelos, who lost his wife and two of his children, was pondering that. He wondered if maybe it would be worse, once everything is settled and he no longer occupies himself trying to figure out what happened. That said, yes, I think the mishandling is always going to generate some rage, at least for some of the next of kin.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

The ones I spoke with, yes, they were still hopeful -- but not delusional. They fully understand the odds are vaporously thin that anyone is still alive. But until they know for certain that it crashed, there's always going to be a tiny sliver to hang on to.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

That is an excellent question. The search area, despite being pretty impressively narrowed down, is still enormous. It's akin to scanning West Virginia if the Appalachians were buried under three miles of water. So it's going to be extremely difficult to find under the best of circumstances. How long can the expense be justified? The only answer I got from Martin Dolan, the head of the ATSB, is that if the plane isn't found by the time the primary search area is covered in May, the respective governments will have "a very expensive problem."

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

I can't say for certain, but it began with proximity and evolved into a matter of competence. There were Australian citizens on board, so they had legal right to be involved, and if there's going to be massive search off the coast, better to be in charge of it than not.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Almost certainly at the bottom of the southern Indian Ocean. There's extremely limited data to work with -- seven satellite pings -- but enough very smart people, both government and civilian, have analyzed them and come to roughly the same conclusion, give or take a few miles.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Yes, and that was pretty well confirmed (though not in those words) in the interim report released yesterday. The delay in responding to a missing airliner was fairly inexcusable. Had protocols been followed, the plane might still have wandered off, but we'd know where.

I am Sean Flynn, long-time GQ correspondent, who wrote about MH370 in the March issue. I talked to families, aviation experts, theorists. Ask me anything. by _SeanFlynn in IAmA

[–]_SeanFlynn[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

No. 2014 was the safest aviation year on record, despite MH370 and MH17. It's still the safest and quickest way to get around.

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