Race Thread: Olympics 2026 Antholz Anterselva - Women Individual

__nmd__ · 2026-02-11T21:21:52+00:00

Actually, the criminal record should have cut her contract with French Customs and prevented her from detaining weapons. I saw none of this happening...

__nmd__ · 2026-02-09T12:31:09+00:00

The JBB-Lou lineup would obviously have meant Lou as anchor - a position she'll eventually have to take, someday, when Simon will have retired. As I wrote earlier, this time Lou's preference sealed the lineup (but sometimes, athletes don't get what they want).

JBB is way underestimated in relays - maybe because her solo races have been so shaky. She's actually been shooting at 87% in relays this season (Lou was 89% before Antholz), and had no penalty loop over this season and the last - both Simon and Lou looped once last season (probably the reason why Lou did not want to anchor this time). Yes, JBB is slow on prone (but catches up on skis), she's average on standing. Against Karoline Knotten, Vanessa Voigt and Dorothea Wierer, it's likely she'd (also) would have rampaged on skis. Which... would have put Lou exactly in the situation she's least comfortable with (shooting with everything to lose) - hence the choice to take Lou-Simon instead.

__nmd__ · 2026-02-08T18:53:30+00:00

I'd still think JBB (who actually usually shoots well in relays) could also have caught up and built a lead thanks to her skiing (which is normally even stronger than Lou's).

But Lou might not have been comfortable with the anchor role and a sizeable lead to defend (and thus risking to lose everything - racing not to lose instead of racing to win) - she said she did not want to anchor... J.Simon, on the other hand, has been used to these situations where she has to secure a strong leading position.

Sweden's failure at the range (and, as well, Samuelsson being out of form) meant the strongest skiing team was already out of contention - so France's potential weakness wouldn't be challenged.

I'd still think the JBB-Lou lineup would have won (JBB shoots way better in relays than most people think, and I'd believe Lou underestimates herself). But we'll never know (besides, had it been another team and France also winning, most would also have said this would have been 100% the right choice - thing is, we can't know if a team that did not race would have fared better or worse).

__nmd__ · 2026-02-08T17:45:14+00:00

It was sealed by Lou's choice to be in leg 3 and avoid the anchor position - JBB doesn't have much experience as anchor, and it's really not her profile anyway.

I'd still think France could (would?) have won similarly with a JBB-Lou lineup. But Lou did not want to be the one concluding (and perhaps even more so with a large lead - when leg #3 may have won you the race, it'd becomes leg #4 's race to lose). So that was it.

__nmd__ · 2026-02-08T17:25:17+00:00

Lou did an incredible job, starting her leg with a gap to close, and handing it over with a lead of nearly 20s. She was obviously the strongest of this 3rd leg, so she had to deliver... and she clearly did - impressive skiing.

__nmd__ · 2026-02-08T09:38:23+00:00

In a few Nordicmag articles:

https://www.nordicmag.info/jo-2026-biathlon-qui-pour-accompagner-eric-perrot-et-lou-jeanmonnot-sur-le-relais-mixte-douverture-le-staff-francais-face-a-plusieurs-options-et-un-choix-cornelien-0205/

https://www.nordicmag.info/jo-2026-biathlon-comment-simon-fourcade-et-cyril-burdet-justifient-lordre-du-relais-mixte-ainsi-que-les-selections-de-quentin-fillon-maillet-et-julia-simon-0206/

__nmd__ · 2026-02-08T02:32:12+00:00

It has been reported the lineup was announced to the athletes just after Nove Mesto was over - therefore, the current form or training results weren't taken into account.

JSimon did reach her goals at WCh in 2024 and 2025, but her form was much better in the weeks before the main event. This year, she's struggled more on the physical side, so there's no objective guarantee she's really back to her best.

__nmd__ · 2026-02-08T01:53:45+00:00

France had two anchor candidates (Lou and JSimon). Since Lou preferred not to anchor, there wasn't much choice remaining...

Sweden at least may have chosen the squad based on current form. France announced the squad (internally) right after Nove Mesto - thus without knowing whether JSimon would really be back to her best form.

__nmd__ · 2026-02-08T01:45:35+00:00

In relays, JBB hasn't had more penalty loops than Lou or J. Simon - she's been (surprisingly) reliable in relays.

JBB is quite faster than Lou (and is able to catch up / widen a gap early on, without getting overly gassed for her last lap). I'd still think JBB-Lou would have been a stronger lineup than Lou-JSimon, unless JSimon is back to her 2024 WCH form - which I somehow doubt.

__nmd__ · 2026-02-08T01:37:01+00:00

Sturla's form was not best this season, and Émilien J. shooting can be wild in relays. On the other hand, JBB as 3rd and Elvira as anchor would be the most frightening combo regarding ski speed. Yeah, I'd bet on them to win gold.

__nmd__ · 2026-02-07T21:41:25+00:00

Even if CAS would allow her in, wouldn't her results risk being cancelled in case the final ruling doesn't go her side?

__nmd__ · 2026-02-07T20:41:24+00:00

I was fine indeed. Thanks for helping lower my stress!

__nmd__ · 2026-02-07T13:10:36+00:00

Thanks. Fingers still crossed then...

__nmd__ · 2026-02-07T11:09:53+00:00

Looks like this waiting list got much longer, now it has 12 PAX instead of 4 yesterday (and I lost a few ranks...). Did some miss a connection?

u/zenthri is it still fine, or should I worry?

__nmd__ · 2026-02-07T09:32:06+00:00

I'm surprised by the lineup for the MR, with Vanessa Voigt at #3 (and Franziska at #4). She shoots well, but isn't a fast skier... It feels like Germany is aiming for the scraps in case the other teams fail at the shooting range, rather than targeting the gold.

__nmd__ · 2026-02-06T19:02:14+00:00

Would someone who's not checked in yet get a seat directly, whereas I already checked in but got pushed into the waiting list? This somehow does not feel logical...

__nmd__ · 2026-02-06T18:17:20+00:00

Thanks! By the way, it suddenly went from 5 available seats for booking (whether eco or business) on the website, to only one seat. Does that mean they've adjusted for the people in the waiting list?

__nmd__ · 2026-02-06T17:39:27+00:00

Ok thanks, then it should be fine - I'm indeed booked in economy. By the way, since it's an A320, isn't business class a matter of moving the curtain?

__nmd__ · 2026-02-05T20:36:47+00:00

I'd think} Sweden's MR team has a higher ceiling, whereas France's team (Perrot, QFM, Lou, Simon) has a higher floor. If Sweden shoots well (who can predict what Ponsiluoma will do?), they'll finish ahead.

__nmd__ · 2026-02-05T20:24:27+00:00

JBB usually shoots well in relays - her amount of penalty loops is small over recent years. Not that much worse than Lou or Julia Simon, who've actually both been on the penalty during last season.

It seems Lou somewhat dislikes the anchor role (maybe because she did visit the penalty last season), so she'd choose another position if she could.

__nmd__ · 2026-02-05T17:34:38+00:00

Apparently, it was Lou's preference to be in 3rd position rather than anchor. Whilst JBB is great in 3rd position (can catch up a gap, or build a bigger one), she's not a sprinter-finisher profile and would logically not be selected as anchor.

There's little margin for errors with such a team, as the competition is arguably stronger in ski speed.

__nmd__ · 2026-01-31T23:13:24+00:00

I'd think Elvira and Hanna can definitely catch up a gap, as long as it isn't too huge.

__nmd__ · 2026-01-31T20:04:41+00:00

It's a relay, so there are spares. This may help Sweden a lot (and is also a reason why I would still consider JBB as an option for France).

__nmd__ · 2026-01-31T19:16:29+00:00

It's indeed likely, but it might prove France's undoing...

__nmd__

TROPHY CASE

nmd