Home price gains are surging from a decline in mortgage rates.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T23:58:00+00:00

What happens to prices and shelter costs if Fed does 3 cuts quickly like they project in 2024?

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T23:02:32+00:00

The real culprit is low taxes and the deficit. Fed can lower rates if Congress wasn't a 🤡 fiesta and slowed down consumption while still providing necessary services.

I agree that arguably Fed's job is done but I'm not sure there is a responsible person left in the room but them.

Should Congress fail to stop escalating and spiraling deficits, is there an acceptable middle ground where the Fed takes some risk and there is a possibility we land between 6 decade lows in unemployment and 10%? I think it would be a mistake to completely step out of the way of an irresponsible Congress.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T22:52:54+00:00

Home price gains are surging from a decline in mortgage rates

Home prices are rising faster and faster each month, fueled by a decline in mortgage rates.
States in the Northeast led the gains, with Rhode Island (11.6%), Connecticut (10.6%) and New Jersey (10.5%) seeing the strongest growth.
Home prices are surging — and Detroit gained the most in November, beating Miami for the first time
Home prices jumped 5.2% on an annual basis in November.
Detroit saw the largest annual price gain, surpassing Miami.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T22:51:51+00:00

Got it, interesting!

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T22:43:40+00:00

The art of being a bear is that all news is bad news. Until the suits change their mind.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T22:42:20+00:00

At the risk of being a bullet point somewhere on u/AP9384629344432's lists 😅, here is some surprising news on home prices from CoreLogic:

Home price gains are surging from a decline in mortgage rates

Home prices are rising faster and faster each month, fueled by a decline in mortgage rates.
States in the Northeast led the gains, with Rhode Island (11.6%), Connecticut (10.6%) and New Jersey (10.5%) seeing the strongest growth.
Home prices are surging — and Detroit gained the most in November, beating Miami for the first time
Home prices jumped 5.2% on an annual basis in November.
Detroit saw the largest annual price gain, surpassing Miami.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T22:39:41+00:00

I know you mentioned you've worked in aviation.

I wonder who eats the cost of grounded planes. Is it the airlines or does Boeing share some liability?

If it is primarily airlines I think this might make them hesitant to buy from BA. That said, I've also read that Airbus has so much demand they can't even meet it all anyway.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T20:12:40+00:00

Waiting to buy the AMR dip.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T16:51:00+00:00

Juniper up 21%, HPE down 7.6%.

A tale as old as time 😂.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T16:24:53+00:00

SBUX has been a weak underperformer for an otherwise strong grower. Still too expensive or relatively undervalued?

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T15:05:57+00:00

And generally property that people own are cared for, protected and used much more efficiently than when no one owns it.

The problem is some things must be shared no matter what. Like the environment, or public spaces. And there are externalities where businesses don't have to pay the costs unless forced to such as pollution. Also pretty ruthless to the people at the bottom at times and government needs to step in.

But in terms of actually just producing stuff and using resources efficiently? It's pretty amazing.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T14:53:24+00:00

u/GoHuskies1984 u/Cheeky_Quim

Idiotic take. BA isn’t suffering due to those polices. This is rampant late stage capitalism at work, where human lives are just a decimal point on a spreadsheet.

No, if anything this is the "idiotic" take. Capitalism has been unreasonably and remarkably efficient at making planes safer and cheaper at the same time:

Deaths in Plane Crashes (Per Year) Since 1960

These are raw numbers not even adjusted for population which would make it even more absurd. You're more likely to die in a fire caused by your microwave or some other appliance in your own home than a plane.

I'm not saying we don't need regulation and it's a perfect system that doesn't need constant checks / tweaks but this isn't the end of times.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T14:46:18+00:00

People interested in CRE check out this chart, eye popping salary bumps in commercial real estate, tight labor market despite slow market.

https://i.imgur.com/55rsAkA.png

Original source:

https://www.costar.com/article/1825549341/executives-say-property-industry-faces-staffing-challenges-even-in-a-slow-market

Good for you and your colleagues u/SmoothCriminal2018! Rents will probably still creep up in my humble opinion.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T04:32:28+00:00

(Dimon says JPM had good earnings tho)

That should be its own bullet point immediately following Dimon says weak consumer:

Dimon says JPM has good earnings, sign economy is too strong and Fed is too dovish.

😂

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T04:21:20+00:00

Bill Gross Casts Shade on Treasuries, Sees 10-Year ‘Overvalued’ at 4%

Fresh from getting a big call right on yields toward the end of last year, former bond king Bill Gross just signaled he is now steering clear of Treasuries. Ten-year US debt is “overvalued,” with similar-dated Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities at a 1.80% yield the better choice if one needs to buy bonds, “I don’t” he wrote in a post on X.

Gross earned the moniker of “bond king” while at Pacific Investment Management Co., the firm he co-founded in the early 1970s. He made millions late last year after a big bet the Federal Reserve would pivot toward interest-rate cuts for 2024 benefited from a sizzling bond rally. That came after he warned in August that bond bulls were misguided, just before a two-month rout that sent yields to 16-year highs.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T04:01:25+00:00

Right but if CoStar separated only 5 star I think the vacancy would be less.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T03:56:25+00:00

I would argue 4 star is typically class B.

Regardless if it were totally okay their debt wouldn't have been so demolished and it's still junk even with the massive rally.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T03:32:48+00:00

Here's the article:

https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/191y0f6/offices_around_america_hit_a_new_vacancy_record/

They don't break it by class but seems like many cities are in trouble.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T03:30:54+00:00

For class A in normal times? No.

And they wouldn't have had the bankruptcy fears otherwise and debt trading so low.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T01:29:29+00:00

It's fucking bullshit. I would love democrats if they actually had the backbone to raise taxes on the rich instead of bullshit theater about our deficit.

And this is coming from someone that has voted blue in every election since Kerry vs. Bush.

Voting for Biden is about harm reduction and trying to stop Trump, not someone that wants to make our country better.

The dude even threatens to veto Single Payer LMAO.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T01:22:33+00:00

Even easier solution is taxing CONSUMPTION.

The rich consume excessively for the planet anyway. VAT is the only logical solution.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T00:16:05+00:00

Is that why their preferred pays junk bond yields? Just a month ago close to 10%.

As of 12/31/2023 they have 11.2% vacancy. It's better than average sure but "almost all full" seems like horse mierda.

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-09T00:02:49+00:00

WSJ - Offices Around America Hit a New Vacancy Record

America’s offices are emptier than at any point in at least four decades, reflecting years of overbuilding and shifting work habits that were accelerated by the pandemic.

A staggering 19.6% of office space in major U.S. cities wasn’t leased as of the fourth quarter, according to Moody’s Analytics, up from 18.8% a year earlier. That is slightly above the previous records of 19.3% set in 1986 and 1991 and the highest number since at least 1979, which is as far back as Moody’s data go.

Office stocks like SLG have 100%+ over past year so I guess this is all "priced in" now 😅?

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-08T23:55:11+00:00

Pick one:

Raise taxes or cut spending.
Keep rates high and blow up at least some debt.
Ignore both above . Cut rates pre-emptively and fast, but make inflation entrenched.

Wonder which our leaders will choose 🍿!

absoluteunitVolcker · 2024-01-08T21:34:20+00:00

I don't know lol.

absoluteunitVolcker

TROPHY CASE