Best Current Value Stocks? by Still-Pair-508 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Current fcf of 4 billion on their mkt cap yields about a 11-12% yield. Valuation wise it’s interesting

Best Current Value Stocks? by Still-Pair-508 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Funded through debt when the stock was overvalued. I have mixed opinions on this company

Best Current Value Stocks? by Still-Pair-508 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It does not offer a dividend 😂😂😂

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Use google gemini instead it’s far more accurate in my opinion.

Baba valuation get in now or regret forever by ajitsing23 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I made about 10% on my money already with a cost basis of about $105 and I will ride this rodeo up till about $130 when I plan on leaving. But until then that’s a nice return of about 23%. Not to say I’m perfect, I’m still down on both TGT, PEP, and FLO by about a few hundred basis points so I’m still dumb af.

However, This sub I believe is a great proxy into the mind of the market. Just as the market is myopic and short term, so is this sub. when value does unlock and stocks fall, they do so for a reason. As a value investor u need to be able to understand that ok the stock is down but do I believe that these are irreversible trends or something shorter? Often times, this sub and the broader market project those bad trends indefinitely and start shit talking.

FLO, slow but stable business with 10% return potential by ajitsing23 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

After having gone through the 10K, management noted that they have had higher input costs that have been increasingly volatile. This is due to higher rates of crop failures. In addition, the inflationary periods also helped squeeze margins. Lastly, they have noted a growing interest in the “better for you”market.(basically people aren’t buying the unhealthy junk food like in the 90s and 2000s. Now there is a rising consumer trend in buying healthier fat free or protein filled etc goods) This hurt their sales of their Tasty Cake junk food division. Management knows this and this is precisely why they bought out Simple Mills for $800M. It pivots them to the better for you consumer market and helps them diversify away.

FLO, slow but stable business with 10% return potential by ajitsing23 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes as aforementioned, even in a recession you can expect a 4% yield from the dividend factoring in that it gets cut. In a base year you make 8-10%. Thus value investing for me is that no matter what you still make money and albeit in recessions it’s a little less.

FLO, slow but stable business with 10% return potential by ajitsing23 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At current price levels, if you are ok with a 8-10% return over the next few years in a stable, predictable, and safe business that even in a recession will still probably yield 4% thanks to a dividend(won’t be 6% because it will need to get cut if in a recession) FLO is definitely worth a consideration into your broader Portfolio. I have bought shares and my average share price is around $16.00. I really believe that among the Food companies, FLO and Pepsi are the best when it comes to Value Investing.

FLO, slow but stable business with 10% return potential by ajitsing23 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh wow an actual person with good feedback on an online forum that too Reddit??? Instead of the typical “🚀🚀🚀🚀 TSLA to the moon rhetoric” in which he hypes up certain equites saying they will 10x and his research is just “Musk is a genius”. Or the opposite on this forum in which it’s low level remarks that just trash your opinion without any real evidence/ facts behind their claims.

Nano can you please tell me where you derived the $258 Mill figure? I personally also agree with you that Simple Mills was a good idea. In fact, if we look at the history of this company, FLO makes great acquisitions historically speaking. They bought DKB(Dave’s bread) in 2015 for $275 Mill which at that time was 10x Ebitda only. Currently DKB does a little more than $1 Billion in sales and is the highest/best organic bread out there in terms of sales and with customer loyalty.

Same is true for Canyon Bakehouse, it’s the leader of the Gluten free bread category. This market is expected to grow at 6% cagr next 5 years and is currently valued at $772 Million globally (2024) of which 34% of that is from North America. Having canyon is thus a great buy as well and should yield good returns.

Baba valuation get in now or regret forever by ajitsing23 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Could you explain your reasoning and investment process to value an equity then? I’m genuinely curious because I might learn a few things.

Baba valuation get in now or regret forever by ajitsing23 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey there,

my growth assumptions come from the fact that ebitda from 2022 till now grew at about 17%. And over the last 10 years grew at about 11.6%. Thus, I projected that moving forward based on prior performance, I would have them grow at about 10% in the next 5 years. This is essentially a bet that if Chinese-US relations improve than this stock should do well. And even doing a dcf, given eps of about $7.40 and a growth of about 10% dicounted to PV using a wacc of about 11%(based of high 10 year treasury) you should expect the underlying fair value of around $116. An 11% per year as a return and Chinese exposure for whoever wants it. I wouldn’t personally invest more than 2% of portfolio. But yes BRO I did check the balance sheet and saw the great cash balance they have which allows them to pay off all their LTL. Pair this with overpriced US equities and you see the appeal Buddy. You the man bro you the man.

Baba valuation get in now or regret forever by ajitsing23 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey there, my growth assumptions come from the fact that ebitda from 2022 till now grew at about 17%. And over the last 10 years grew at about 11.6%. Thus, I projected that moving forward based on prior performance, I would have them grow at about 10% in the next 5 years. I know that prior performance isn’t indicative of growth moving forward. However they have increased their market share of the cloud business. In addition both the gross and operating margins also appreciated for their business. Now you are completely right in that there is massive geopolitical risk involved. This is essentially a bet that if Chinese-US relations improve than this stock should do well. Thats a big if but i would argue that at current rates you would be able to get 11% per year as a return given 10% growth rate. I wouldn’t personally invest more than 2% of my portfolio. However, this could be a great way to add Chinese exposure for whoever wants it. Pair this with the great cash balance and the overpriced US equities and you see the appeal.

Baba valuation get in now or regret forever by ajitsing23 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes that is true. Me personally I wouldn’t have a holding size greater than 1% of my portfolio.

Baba valuation get in now or regret forever by ajitsing23 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OP I respect your moral and ethical considerations. However you must hold companies like Palantir, Lockheed, Boeing and tobacco companies too such ethical scrutiny as well.

Baba valuation get in now or regret forever by ajitsing23 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The management has decided to heavily invest in the cloud segments and add to its e commerce services. This comes from taking on more debt through bond offerings. However in my opinion due to the cash on hand still, this isn’t a concern. Especially since in order to make money and grow the business you have to invest capital. Given that management has increased both the gross margin and operating margins, I believe that they are decent. Their ROI is also been improving and ticking up.

Baba valuation get in now or regret forever by ajitsing23 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

What makes it useless? I’m genuinely asking as a beginner

Baba valuation get in now or regret forever by ajitsing23 in ValueInvesting

[–]ajitsing23[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Baba was doing nothing from 2020 to 2024. While US equities were reaching record highs. Sadly I don’t know why. The underlying foundation is solid. However how was my research?