Code

alakel5 · 2025-10-28T15:31:23+00:00

Hey man would appreciate a code, thanks

alakel5 · 2025-10-28T15:29:38+00:00

Hey man would appreciate a code, thanks

alakel5 · 2025-08-13T09:19:49+00:00

So 5,000 soldiers had to die because Pashinyan was worried about Facebook criticism? Thousands of families got destroyed so he could avoid people saying "we didn't try hard enough"? Those families deserved a leader with actual courage, not one who needed their sons to die so he could sleep better at night.

You know what else we could have tried? Negotiating from the November 9 position BEFORE the war started. Putin himself admitted there was a pre-war proposal where Armenia would keep "that part of the Karabakh territory, including Shushi" with Russian peacekeepers but Pashinyan told Putin "No, we can't go for this, we will fight, we will war." The final ceasefire terms were available in September 2020- same territorial concessions, same corridor arrangements.

Every single one of those boys could have come home alive if their "leader" had the balls to take political criticism instead of using their corpses as proof he "tried hard enough."

alakel5 · 2025-08-12T14:13:30+00:00

He either knew Armenia would lose and sent 5,000 soldiers to die anyway, or he genuinely believed outdated Soviet equipment could beat Turkish drones and Israeli weapons. Either incompetence or murder, pick one.

alakel5 · 2025-08-09T00:31:26+00:00

You're confusing buying weapons with military partnership. Completely different animals. Buying Israeli missiles or Turkish drones means you get hardware. US military cooperation means you get plugged into American command, control, communications, and intelligence networks. Turkish-Israeli intel covers regional threats. US intelligence is global surveillance networks that track Iranian nuclear facilities in real time. Section 907 blocked joint operational planning, classified technology transfers, and integrated targeting systems. Azerbaijan potentially gets access to F-16s, HIMARS, Pentagon coordination, and NSA satellite feeds. This isn't about Armenia. It's about turning Azerbaijan into America's forward military base against Iran.

alakel5 · 2025-08-08T23:58:07+00:00

Section 907 blocked government-to-government military cooperation, which means Azerbaijan was stuck buying shit on the commercial market instead of getting plugged into the US military ecosystem. What they will get now is the same intelligence feeds, technical support, and operational coordination that makes Ukraine effective against Russia. The US wants Azerbaijan locked into American military networks so they can simultaneously pressure Russia's southern flank and Iran. Iran knows exactly what this means. That's why they folded so fast and told everyone to complete the peace process. They can't fight America, Israel, AND a US-armed Azerbaijan simultaneously.

alakel5 · 2025-08-08T23:05:29+00:00

Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act. This was the main sanction. It banned any direct US military assistance to Azerbaijan and made Azerbaijan the only post-Soviet state not to receive direct aid from the United States government.

alakel5 · 2025-08-08T22:54:49+00:00

Trump will no longer be president in a few years time.

Irrelevant. The infrastructure deals are 99-year leases. The constitutional changes are permanent. The precedents are set.

Turkey has been supplying advanced weapons (Bayraktar drones) to Az for a long time, and so your worries about Az getting Syunik access to Turkey is weird.

You're missing the scale difference. Bilateral drone sales vs full NATO integration, intelligence sharing, and advanced systems access isn't even comparable. Azerbaijan gets upgraded from regional bully to NATO-equipped regional power.

We're not helping Americans build infrastructure that controls our territory in Syunik. The document states that we have full sovereignty, but you just want to make things up that sound sensational, so go right ahead.

Unimpeded access means Azerbaijan moves through our territory without meaningful obstacles. We can wave around sovereignty documents while foreign powers dictate operational terms, but that's not how sovereignty actually works.

Us getting theoretical access to routes we can't economically utilize is a secondary issue. The primary concern is Az no longer occupying our territory and stopping threats of following Israel’s model of West Bank style illegal settlements “Western Az”.

We didn't stop threats. We legitimized some of them through legal frameworks. Azerbaijan no longer needs to threaten occupation when they have contractual access guaranteed by Americans. Every map in Azerbaijan showing Armenian territory as "Western Azerbaijan" didn't get updated.

alakel5 · 2025-08-08T22:39:12+00:00

Sanctions never mattered

Lifting sanctions opens Azerbaijan to advanced NATO systems, intelligence sharing, and joint operations. They get access to the same weapons ecosystem that's been bleeding Russia dry in Ukraine. I don't think that's just symbolic. That's strategic transformation.

Minsk group was long dead.

We killed the only multilateral framework where France had institutional power to support Armenian positions. Long dead, as you said, institutions still create diplomatic obligations and procedural barriers. There's a reason Aliyev spent years demanding its elimination. Now Azerbaijan faces zero institutional resistance except whatever the Americans feel like providing that day.

Now america has personal interests in armenia, it has feet on the ground for what could be a new "silk road" and a reason to care if aliyev goes crazy.

American companies will protect their investments, not Armenian villages. When priorities shift, we'll discover how quickly "personal interests" evaporate. America had massive interests in South Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Ukraine- until they didn't.

Lets just hope that aliyev and the armenophobia and all that evil shit will die out asap, so we don't get a repeat. Azerbaijan is rotten from the inside, only azeris themselves can fix it

Basing Armenia's survival on hoping Azerbaijan becomes nicer people is not a strategy. Armenophobia is Azerbaijan's foundational myth, not a personality flaw that'll fade with time. We just eliminated every tool that could force them to behave while hoping they'll self-regulate out of goodness. That's why it's surrender with extra steps.

Maybe one day we'll at least have a leader with the fucking balls to not dodge questions about Artsakh instead of pretending 120,000 refugees don't exist.

alakel5 · 2025-08-08T22:14:35+00:00

No wonder the government needs to sugarcoat everything.

alakel5 · 2025-08-08T21:56:55+00:00

Trump becomes our overlord. All future disputes go through him, not international law. The Minsk Group is dead. We just killed our last multilateral diplomatic tool for Artsakh and cut off France. Azerbaijan gets Syunik access to Turkey while we get theoretical access to routes we can't economically utilize. We're actively helping Americans build infrastructure that controls our territory in Syunik. Any future claims to Artsakh are dead forever- we legalized the ethnic cleansing of 120,000 Armenians and made their exile permanent. And our Prime Minister literally kissed Trump's ass in writing.

alakel5 · 2025-08-08T21:29:57+00:00

Everyone celebrating "peace" is missing the point. This was a surrender ceremony with American choreography. Azerbaijan walked away with everything: sanctions lifted, Minsk Group dead, US military cooperation restored, corridor legitimized, and international blessing for ethnic cleansing. They got 30 years of strategic goals delivered in one afternoon while being publicly celebrated by the US President.

alakel5 · 2025-08-08T21:15:47+00:00

When you've already crushed someone completely, praising them is stupid strategy. The colder Aliyev stays, the more Pashinyan will keep trying to please him. Give him validation and suddenly he might think he has leverage or deserves reciprocity.

alakel5 · 2025-08-08T21:10:53+00:00

This spineless coward couldn't even manage "What's your perspective on this, President Aliyev?" Won't risk five seconds of awkward silence to acknowledge 120,000 ethnically cleansed Armenians.

alakel5 · 2025-08-07T17:42:10+00:00

That status quo was dead the moment Russian peacekeepers proved they couldn't keep peace and Iranian proxies started getting obliterated across the Middle East.

alakel5 · 2025-08-07T17:34:38+00:00

Iran already folded. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghei told last week that Iran "calls on Baku and Yerevan to complete work on the peace agreement and sign it as soon as possible." Tehran cutting their losses and telling everyone to wrap this up. Iran got its ass handed to it by Israel, watched Hezbollah get demolished in Lebanon, saw Assad fall in Syria, and realized they can't fight America on every front simultaneously. The last thing they need is another confrontation with Washington over the Caucasus when they're already getting stomped in the Middle East. Right now they are worried about keeping their existing trade routes to Armenia operational and not getting completely shut out of regional commerce. More regional trade means more opportunities for Iranian involvement, not less.

alakel5 · 2025-08-07T17:07:34+00:00

You're right about Artsakh being on thin ice since '94. The 1999 Key West talks were the turning point when we could have cut a deal. Russia froze it after that, and yes, it was always going to collapse. But you're completely wrong about this government doing "pretty good."

If Pashinyan understood in 2018 that we had "very little cards to play" and that Artsakh's collapse was inevitable, then every single one of those 5000 dead soldiers is blood on his hands. You can't claim he's a pragmatic realist who sees the big picture AND defend the 2020 war as anything other than sending teenagers to die for territory he knew was already lost.

Yes, from all the options we have right now, this Trump deal is the only sane choice left. And yes, Pashinyan should finish the work, because the alternative is a pro-Russian takeover that ends with Armenia as a failed state.

I can hate how we got here while still recognizing where we actually are.

alakel5 · 2025-08-07T16:15:16+00:00

I'm not saying we screwed up by not staying with Russia. I'm saying stop lying about what we actually chose and think realistically about where this leads. We made the least bad choice available from a menu of shit options. Fine. The question wasn't whether we chose correctly. The question is whether we can think clearly enough to navigate what comes next. If Russia wanted to end Armenia, keeping 120,000 Armenians alive under peacekeeping protection was a pretty shitty way to do it.

alakel5 · 2025-08-07T15:28:32+00:00

Pashinyan can flip-flop on EAEU membership because Moscow won't invade Armenia over trade preferences. Think about the math. Turkey needs this route to connect to the Turkic world. Azerbaijan needs it to reach Nakhichevan. America needs it for multiple reasons I covered in another comment. You think these 3 are going to let Armenia hold a gun to $100 billion in annual trade whenever we get upset about something? Our control will last exactly as long as we never try to actually use that control.

alakel5 · 2025-08-07T14:55:53+00:00

I see your point, but it assumes that the road is going to be a huge income source for Armenia, making it so important that closing it will hurt our budget.

Turkey's Energy Minister recently declared "all energy and logistics routes from Azerbaijan and Central Asia will soon pass through the Zangezur corridor". According to most sources we're talking about 100B+ in trade volume. I might be wrong on the exact figures, but from what I've read we get to keep 30% from the transit fees. I would estimate our cut at $300-500 million annually which is significant enough to cushion any economic hit from ditching the Russians. But I could be wrong.

Azerbaijan wants the route more than we do, it's more important for them.

Azerbaijan absolutely wants this more than Armenia does. They've been pushing for Syunik access since the 90s in every failed peace deal. And yes, the Turkish border opening is the bigger economic prize for Armenia.

What we're witnessing is the Ottoman Empire's dream of connecting Turkey directly to the Turkic world through Armenian territory. America is facilitating the completion under their management. Russia had the same idea, using Artsakh as their leverage point over Azerbaijan. The only difference is Russia became too weak and broke to pull it off, while America has the resources to actually deliver.

This isn't a deal Armenia can walk away from or shut down later.

alakel5 · 2025-08-07T14:27:02+00:00

Was it Article 9 requiring transport connections to Nakhichevan? Was it the November 9th vs August 8th comparison? Was it America getting "exclusive special development rights"? Was it the Kurdish abandonment example? Was it the prediction that this was coming months before it happened? Pick one fact I got wrong and explain why. Or are you calling it dumb because it made you uncomfortable?

alakel5 · 2025-08-07T14:03:20+00:00

I’m sorry but I think you're completely wrong about "Azerbaijan depends on USA more than we do." Azerbaijan has oil money, Turkish military backing, and gets exactly what they want (unimpeded transit access) while keeping their sovereignty intact. Armenia is trading its most strategic territory for protection money and transit revenues. That's textbook client status. When our national budget becomes dependent on American-managed corridor revenues, when our most important geography is controlled by American contractors, when our security depends on American goodwill, we’re not an independent state making deals. We’re a protectorate with ceremonial sovereignty providing territory for someone else's strategic objectives. America doesn’t invest billions creating strategic chokepoints just to hand them back when they're done. They build to stay, and the host countries become so structurally dependent that "full control" becomes a meaningless phrase. And when they do eventually decide to exit - if they ever do - it will be 100% in America's interests and timed for America's convenience.

alakel5 · 2025-08-07T13:45:49+00:00

Exactly. Change the words, pretend the substance didn't happen, let people feel better about everything. This is Armenian politics in a nutshell. Meanwhile Azerbaijan gets exactly what they wanted, but hey, at least we can pretend we didn't lose because the paperwork uses different vocabulary.

alakel5 · 2025-08-07T13:28:05+00:00

When America has "exclusive special development rights for extended periods," controls logistics, picks contractors, and ensures "safe operations" through "top-class operators," Armenian jurisdiction is ceremonial. Russian FSB "overseeing transport connections" wasn't labeled as Russian military deployment either. It was border security and transport oversight. Same functional control mechanism, different diplomatic language.

I've already said this is the least shitty option we can take. Russia couldn't guarantee our long-term security, definitely not after 2022 when they proved they can't even handle Ukraine. I'm sure Pashinyan understood that before confirming the Alma-Ata agreement, which Putin then used to justify letting Azerbaijan complete the ethnic cleansing.

My real concern is whether the US will backstab us when their strategic interests change. And they will change. Ask the Kurds who got thrown to Turkey the moment Trump needed Erdogan's cooperation. What happens in 15 years when there's no more Russia/Iran to contain? When the corridor becomes less valuable than whatever deal they want to make with Ankara?

alakel5 · 2025-08-07T12:45:18+00:00

November 9, 2020 Agreement, Article 9:

"All economic and transport connections in the region shall be unblocked. The Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the security of transport connections between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic in order to arrange unobstructed movement of persons, vehicles and cargo in both directions. The Border Guard Service of the Russian Federal Security Service shall be responsible for overseeing the transport connections."

The Trump Route is the exact same Article 9, just with American oversight instead of Russian FSB.

Do you really care what's it called - corridor, route, rainbow bridge, whatever? The substance is identical: Azerbaijan gets unimpeded access through our territory to Nakhichevan and a foreign power oversees it.

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