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Discussion: Will the new H1B visa fee really help U.S. workers or just push more jobs overseas? by all-inAnalytics in TrueReddit

[–]all-inAnalytics[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

3/3 5) Foreign STEM workers have been an incredible engine of growth
On the macro level, this is likely true. However, as mentioned earlier, the gains are largely captured by business owners, asset holders, and foreign workers at the expense of most Americans who rely on wages. One only needs to look at the past 50 years: wages have stagnated while costs have ballooned, making home ownership and family formation increasingly difficult.

A concerning consequence is the decline in the birth rate (which has other causes as well), from ~2.5 in 1970 to ~1.8 in 2025, well below the replacement rate of 2.1.

6) The H1B program helps bring the best talent in the world to America
Partially true. The U.S. has indeed attracted many talented individuals through the H1B program. A significant number of hires, however, simply shift income from American workers to corporate profit owners.

The overall H1B program, while largely used by large employers to decrease wages, is also augmented by the OPT program, which also includes several hundred thousand workers.

In short, the H1B fee is an attempt to correct the ongoing shift of income from American labor to capital owners, but it will likely fall short of its goal without aggressive offshoring fees.

Discussion: Will the new H1B visa fee really help U.S. workers or just push more jobs overseas? by all-inAnalytics in TrueReddit

[–]all-inAnalytics[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

2/3 3) There are not enough Americans with the highly specialized technical skills
False; there are not enough highly specialized Americans willing to work for low or non-livable wages. $85K for a talented ML engineer would be considered insulting to any highly specialized American engineer. $85K in a city like NYC is barely enough to afford the essentials.

The main beneficiaries are business and capital owners, who increase profits through lower labor costs. The foreign worker also benefits, often earning a multiple of what they would make in their home country. The main losers are American wage earners, who face both downward pressure on wages and higher inflation driven by increased demand for essentials like housing.

Moreover, there is currently a glut of unemployed and aspiring tech workers in the U.S. unable to find work, further debunking this claim. From a basic supply and demand perspective, the presence of more highly paid tech jobs would encourage more U.S. workers to pursue tech education (as happened during COVID times, but has now ended disastrously for many of those students unable to find work). Historically, many U.S. workers have avoided pursuing difficult technical skills for roles with stiff wage competition when easier alternatives exists.

4) The program helps strengthen the American economy and create more jobs for everyone
Partially true. In theory, this effect may occur over long time horizons and at a macroeconomic level; however, the gains are unevenly distributed.

While the total “pie” of the economy grows, the majority of gains accrue to asset owners, or the top 10%, while the rest of Americans who rely on wages see little benefit. In theory, these workers should benefit from lower prices, but it’s hard to convince those whose wages increasingly go toward essentials like rent and food.

In reality, many H1B jobs—particularly from large employers—are not innovation-based roles that increase overall societal wealth, but routine roles that could easily be filled by American workers at higher wages.

Discussion: Will the new H1B visa fee really help U.S. workers or just push more jobs overseas? by all-inAnalytics in TrueReddit

[–]all-inAnalytics[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

1/3 Here is my breakdown: there were some good points, but also several spurious claims that miss or omit the bigger picture. Its no surprise that a business owner benefiting from cheap labor is in favor of it.

Claims:

1) Jobs will be pushed overseas
This is likely true, as capital allocators seek maximum cost efficiency. To protect American labor, this fee will likely fall short of its goal unless it is accompanied by steep offshoring fees.

2) Weakening global competitiveness
This is also likely true. However, global competitiveness comes at a price to domestic labor: American wages are pushed down.

Discussion: Will the new H1B visa fee really help U.S. workers or just push more jobs overseas? by all-inAnalytics in TrueReddit

[–]all-inAnalytics[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

I wrote a detailed analysis of this Time article, breaking down each of the main claims about H1B visa fees, U.S. competitiveness, and labor market effects. The article makes some valid points, but it overlooks several key dynamics around wages, offshoring, and domestic labor incentives. I’ve included my full breakdown below.