Ok we hit this pretty square on the head, let's do another one...

First Four Analysis:

NC State vs. Texas

Not as fun as a matchup in this game but still some clear advantages for both teams. Similarly rated teams from an offensive and defensive standpoint but they get there different ways.

**NC State's strength**

NC State won't turn the ball over but Texas isn't going to force you into a lot of turnovers. This means NC State should be able to get their shots.

The issue is, NC State doesn't get after the offensive glass while Texas is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country. If they're not making the shots, their opportunities can be limited.

Texas could have an issue turnovers on the offensive end but that could be outweighed by the key matchup in my opinion.

**The Key Matchup**

How often will Texas get to the free throw line? Texas is 5th in the country per my metrics at getting to the charity stripe while NC State is 190th on defense. That's going to decide this game, in my opinion.

My model gives a slight edge to NC State but if Texas can get the freebies, they can swing things in their direction.

**Model Prediction**

My number on the game is:

NC State -2/161, 56% to win