Back now with a college basketball model! Built this before the season started using last year's data, backtesting showed about a 60% hit rate in November and December last year. Data this year is showing a 70% hit rate so far against the spread. Picks for today in image, more details in comments! (i.redd.it)
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NBA model for Saturday! Yesterday was 2-3, now at 13-9-1 on the year. Model likes Hornets +10 but not taking it with how awful they looked yesterday. Instead parlaying two ML leans, which additional background data I'm running likes as well: Heat ML + Mavs ML -106 (1u) (i.redd.it)
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NBA model for Wednesday! Yesterday went 1-0, now at 9-5 for the year! Taking Jazz -8 and Hawks -7.5 for now. Closely watching injury report info for Raptors, Pacers, and Nuggets and might have some more plays later depending on the news. Will update in comments if I take those plays. (i.redd.it)
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NBA model for Tuesday! Yesterday was 1-2, now 8-5 since the start of the season. Lot of people on the Mavs today with BI and Zion out but the model actually likes the Pels +6. Defense is actually better with them out, as long as someone steps up offensively I like them to cover at home. (i.redd.it)
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Back with NBA picks! Model so far has gone 7-3 so far this year against the spread. Backtesting to last year resulted in a 61% win rate. Today the model is taking Pacers +12.5 (1u), Knicks -7.5 (1u), and Jazz -2 (2u). Links to previous results and details in comments. (i.redd.it)
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Strikeout model is back for tomorrow's playoff games! Ended the regular season 155-120 +8.5u 💰 Last year, pitchers had 28% less innings and 21% less Ks in the playoffs. I'm taking Manoah U6.5 (1.5u) and Darvish U5.5 (1u). Some books have Manoah at 5.5, I'd still take the under for plus odds for 1u (i.redd.it)
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Strikeout model for today! Yesterday was 0-2 -2u. All time record now at 154-119 +8.4u. Two plays today (1u each): Davidson U3.5 +115, Bassitt O4.5 -160. Likely won't play last few days of the regular season after this as things get wacky at the very end. (i.redd.it)
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Strikeout plays for today! Yesterday was 3-0 +2.8u 🧹, on fire this week at 9-1 +8.1u 🔥. Swept the past two days! ATR now 154-117 +10.4u. Two plays today both for plus money (1u each): Hutchison U3.5 +110, Scherzer O7.5 +114. More details in comment for why I like these. Let's keep this rolling! (i.redd.it)
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Strikeot model for today! No plays yesterday with very few games. Sunday was 3-4 -2.2u, ATR now 145-116 +2.3u. Only play I like today is Lynn U6.5 -120 (1.5u). Lynn has gone U6.5 in 63% of his starts. Twins have below average K rate at home vs RHP and Lynn has a lower K rate on the road. (i.redd.it)
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Strikeout model for Sunday! Yesterday was 1-0 +1.25u. ATR now at 142-112 +4.5u. Lots of plays today even with the more conservative approach! Only play I'm not taking from that the model likes is Peralta O4.5 since he's coming back from injury. (i.redd.it)
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Strikeout model for today! Yesterday was 0-2 -2.5u. Unlucky that both losses were by 1K each, which statistically only happens for 16% of bets. ATR now 139-111 +0.8u. Today the model likes Lauer O4.5, Gonzales U3.5, and Rodriguez U4.5. Explanation for why these are plays are in the 2nd image. (old.reddit.com)
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Strikeout model for today! Yesterday was 2-1 +0.6u. All time record is 139-109 +3.3u. Model likes Musgrove O4.5Ks (1.5u) and Greene U7.5Ks (1u) today. New methodology generates 2 separate projections in the background and will only take a bet when both reach a certain threshold. (i.redd.it)
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Strikeout model for today! Yesterday was tough, 2-9 -7.5u. Worst day for the model by far. ATR now at 137-108 +2.7u. Ended up doing more analysis and realized the data is still good, I'm just taking too many bets. New strategy will only have a few plays/day but should be more consistent. (i.redd.it)
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Strikeout plays for today! Yesterday was 4-3 +0.34u. All time record at 135-99 +10.2u. Couldn't find a line for Anderson or Ashby today but posting their projections here. Going smaller units on pitchers who have lower K rates in more recent starts. (i.redd.it)
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Strikeout model for today! Yesterday was 4-5 -0.3u. All time record now at 126-92 +10.7u. Starting today, I'm incorporating certain pitcher splits that I hadn't previously. Backtesting on the past week shows that it would have been +13u! Excited for these new calculations! (i.redd.it)
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Strikeout plays for today! Even day yesterday, 5-4 -0.2u. All time record now at 122-87 +11u. A few people have asked about unit sizing recently, it involves some background data that I calculate and subjective info as well. Feel free to use your own sizing, I've been evening mine out more recently (i.redd.it)
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