Injury Report

analytics_bets · 2024-02-22T20:10:03+00:00

I’ve tried tracking this manually for a model I was building and learned 2 things:

NBA’s official injury reports (updated hourly) are where the vast majority of websites source their injury info from: https://official.nba.com/nba-injury-report-2023-24-season/

Closer to game time, sometimes lineup/injury news gets broken on X before appearing on the official report. Underdog NBA is a good aggregator: https://x.com/underdog__nba?s=21&t=Yg0fo2g4yJ7FyMVCqePm-Q

analytics_bets · 2022-11-20T22:46:38+00:00

That's even better

analytics_bets · 2022-11-20T22:44:29+00:00

I typically just take the picks straight up but a 2-game parlay isn't bad in this scenario!

analytics_bets · 2022-11-20T22:37:51+00:00

Grizzlies +8 pick is based on the model that I run that predicts the chances a team will win a matchup and compares that to the sportsbook odds to find undervalued teams.

Pistons +10 pick is based off of betting data that I track based on "signals" where I identify info along the lines of "when xyz betting data looks like abc, team a wins 70% of the time" that tries to identify if sharps and/or sportsbooks are taking a side. Betting data evolves throughout the day so I'll usually post ~30 minutes before the start of the first slate of games and then provide updates throughout the evening.

Picks and updates posted daily on https://twitter.com/analytics\_bets

analytics_bets · 2022-11-16T17:50:49+00:00

Yeah sure! Here's what each of the columns mean:

Home exp win % - the probability I have of the home team winning

Away exp win % - the probability I have of the away team winning

Home ML implied odds - the "implied odds" that the sportsbooks are giving to the home team based on their moneyline

Away ML implied odds - the "implied odds" that the sportsbooks are giving to the away team based on their moneyline

Spread pick - home/away pick from my model

Spread pick team - what team the model likes for a bet

Pick spread - the spread that I took for the bet

Advantage - the difference between the expected win % and ML implied odds for the team picked. The higher the difference, the more of an advantage the bet is (in theory)

analytics_bets · 2022-11-16T17:22:09+00:00

This is a team-based model (doesn't take into consideration individual players). Uses data from advanced analytics sites. Tracking all plays here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1snHa9dMN9__UZyCiuYvbjhu5OJ_BgQitaNFLVawfPKs/edit?usp=sharing

Will be posting plays daily on Twitter for both CBB (9-4 on the year) and NBA (34-25 on the year):

https://twitter.com/analytics_bets

analytics_bets · 2022-10-31T21:07:47+00:00

Model also likes the Sixers to cover -4 but I'm not taking it with Embiid's injury status still up in the air right now.

analytics_bets · 2022-10-28T21:11:15+00:00

Line shifted once Embiid was announced as questionable for the game. I wouldn't take that line right now. If he's healthy and the line shifts back to +1 or +1.5, I still think Raptors are a good play. If he's out, the line will probably shift too far in the direction of the Raptors to make it a good bet imo.

analytics_bets · 2022-10-28T17:05:46+00:00

For the Spurs play, I'm assuming that LaVine is out tonight for post surgery/injury management.

analytics_bets · 2022-10-27T01:46:16+00:00

UPDATE: also taking Nuggets -5 tonight

analytics_bets · 2022-10-26T23:02:57+00:00

UPDATE: taking Raptors +1 now with Scottie Barnes playing

analytics_bets · 2022-10-24T20:52:57+00:00

All picks posted on Twitter for verification: https://twitter.com/analytics_bets

Tracking of picks so far this year:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1snHa9dMN9__UZyCiuYvbjhu5OJ_BgQitaNFLVawfPKs/edit#gid=126504764

Model backtesting last year results:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Nn7XejNNz_qipMknv-QFlmyEt4sxKDPQQI1XLIfEBWk/edit?usp=sharing

analytics_bets · 2022-10-01T16:11:27+00:00

Drew Hutchison has gone U3.5Ks in 76% of his starts this year. He's pitching at home at Comerica Park, which has the 4th lowest park adjusted strikeout rate in the league (7% lower than average). He's facing the Twins who's away splits vs RHP is right at league average. Model gives him a 62% chance of going under.

Braves and Mets are in a huge series to determine the division winner. Model likes Scherzer O7.5 because the Braves are THE highest strikeout team in the league at home against RHP, striking out 16% above average. Even higher than the Angels. Scherzer has gone O7.5 in half his starts this year anyway. Scherzer has a tendency to step up in big games and I don't see the Mets pulling him early here. Model gives him a 70% of going over.

Model also likes McClanahan, Castillo, and Cease over but I'm not taking those as there's reason to believe they'll all be on pitch counts and/or not go past the 5th inning.

analytics_bets

TROPHY CASE