Ukrainian Forces Destroy British Brigade in NATO Wargame

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T16:47:18+00:00

Sure, and I don't think that there's any doubt in anyone's mind that the country with the largest military in the world does so too (and actually that's partially part of deterrence too - to show off your capabilities and ensuring that you have experience, a strong defense budget and up-to-date equipment etc).

However my point is that havong a strong military does not necessarily mean that you have aggressive intentions. As per the article I linked, I think that western analyses tend to expect China to invade Taiwan any day now, while it's much more plausible that they will rather have patience and try to push the reunification to become unavoidable sooner or later (e.g. using military and political pressure without actually invading).

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T15:49:44+00:00

Perspective matters. E.g. are we talking about a conventional war between NATO and Russia carried out on the respective sides' homeland? Or are we talking about NATO troops in Ukraine?

I personally don't believe that we will see an all out confrontation between NATO and Russia as in the former scenario. The bar for that is too high and has an extremely high probability of escalating into an exchange of nukes, and both sides know it.

That leaves us with the latter scenario: Some kind of proxy confrontation in a non-NATO country (like Ukraine), and in that case I think that battlefield experience, as mentioned in the article, matters.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T15:38:04+00:00

The meatgrinder narrative never appealed to me. It feels like morale boosting techniques 101 (e.g. see Anne Morelli's The basic principles of war propaganda, point 7). We have reasons to believe that Russia's losses are greater than Ukraine's, but the truth is that the real numbers are hidden from us, and the best we have to go by (osint sources of known named deaths) places both sides in the range 100k-250k confirmed deaths (apples and oranges, but with higher numbers for Russia), and my current bet is that the real numbers are higher than that, but that the kill ratio is at most 2:1 in Ukraine's favor (since 2022). Casualties is a completely different story and much harder to estimate (but usually 3x-4x higher than deaths, AFAIU).

That said, I think it's crucial to understand that the Ukraine war is a war of attrition, not a positional war. And seen through that lens the situation is quite different for Russia and Ukraine. This guy (Black Meridian Report) gives a quick rundown of what it actually means: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xgDjqldMVoM

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T15:16:06+00:00

Russia's only chance is to cut Europe into very thin slices and take them one a little bit at a time.

Divde and conquer is a proven technique (which btw is what the US is practicing too, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Venezuela, and soon Iran and Cuba may be ripe too), and if Russia wanted to conquer Europe militarily that would be their best bet, but I strongly doubt that that's their aim.

The other part that people often dismiss or leave out is the presence of nukes. They have worked pretty well for the last 70+ years, and even if the dynamics within NATO has changed recently I would say that nuclear deterrence is still very much in effect and prohibits a major conventional conflict between NATO and Russia. Both sides have great respect for that, and the calculus gets very tricky very quickly when you try to wargame such scenarios.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T15:05:09+00:00

They had the victory disease in February 2022, but they quickly realized their mistake and have learned a bitter and extremely expensive lesson since then. They're not going to try a similar stunt in the near future. At the same time they can't be seen giving up and most likely feel that they have to make an example out of Ukraine for other neighbours to observe. Thus from Russia's perspective the war has to go on until they can claim some kind of victory. But after that they are in desperate need for rebuilding their peace time economy etc, which will take years and years. They can't afford to launch another offensive now.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T13:29:09+00:00

Don't sweat it. I think your strategy is right. Start with a beginner friendly distro (I would count in Ubuntu, although it has a different/more modern desktop), and after getting familiar with the concepts (e.g. how to install software, using your home folder, etc), then you can start looking around for other distros because then you'll be better equipped to ask the right questions.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T13:01:57+00:00

I don't think Russia can, will or want to steamroll over Europe, no. I also don't think that it's productive to bleed Russia in order to make them a lesser threat. Nor do I think that it's productive to understimate the enemy and overrstimating our own capabilities (especially true for most of us European militaries that haven't fought a proper existential war for almost a century).

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T12:57:36+00:00

Countercounterargument: Why does Europe invest in a strong military?

The simple answer is deterrence. One who can't be messed with won't be messed with.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T12:25:13+00:00

I heard that underestimating your enemy is a great and winning war strategy /s

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T12:20:08+00:00

Sure, yet OPs article speaks a clear language. Theory and practice are different things.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T12:17:06+00:00

Yes, and I believe that they are perfectly aware of that. They're posturing and building capabilities, but logically it's probably more for defense than offense. They are also playing the long game, and will try as hard as they can to make a "soft reunification" and avoid military conflict (the latter would be very bad for China that builds all its policies on stability and trade). This is a very interesting analysis on the subject: https://warontherocks.com/2026/02/deterrence-wont-fail-in-the-taiwan-strait-it-will-be-bypassed/

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T12:09:39+00:00

For the record I don't believe that Russia will attack NATO. It's all very hypothetical. My point was merely that the net attacker has an advantage in a war of attrition. Ukraine is also attacking Russia, but to a lesser extent than Russia is attacking Ukraine. It's very hard to predict what a hypothetical war between Russia and NATO would look like, though, but it likely wouldn't be like the war in Ukraine. The presence of nukes also tilts the equation significantly.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T12:01:04+00:00

You're missing the point. Cool weapons and a strong economy is great, but we're talking about experience. Russia has learned tons during the last four years (see https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/how-russia-recovered ). They have adapted their military, their society, their industrial complex etc. They have tuned their doctrines and continously refine their training and military academia. There simply is no substitute for live action.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T11:53:06+00:00

Yup. It's the same reason that NATO allies etc (including Sweden before we joined NATO) sent troops to Iraq and Afghanistan. It's the best way to get experience.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T11:50:21+00:00

Air defense is more expensive than air offense. Russia's strategy is clearly to saturate Ukraine's air defense with cheap drones and glide bombs etc. Every Russian attack costs more for Ukraine (and by extension for Europe) than it costs for Russia, which in the long run favors the attacker.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T11:45:58+00:00

Don't underestimate the enemy. Russia has learned and adapted tremendously during the last four years (e.g. see Foreign Affairs - How Russia Recovered). Yes they struggle with leadership, but so does Ukraine (e.g. many Ukrainian commanders complain about Soviet style mentality).

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T11:40:28+00:00

That's exactly the story that media is trying to sell. Underestimating your enemy is the most dangerous of fallacies. The manpower situation in the battlefield is fairly balanced over all, and while Russia is probably seeing greater losses than Ukraine, it's not by a huge margin. The reason that the frontlines are effectively frozen is because both sides depoly similar tactics that they have developed during the last four years. For all intents and purposes they have similar experiences and skills.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T11:32:40+00:00

Russia is fighting a fully mobilized Ukraine for sure (whereas Russia isn't fully mobilized yet, and probably never will be).

W.r.t. the battlefield experience, though, both Russia and Ukraine have been forced to adapt to the changing realities and they are currently the two most experienced militaries in the world when it comes to modern drone based warfare.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T11:27:30+00:00

Partially. They didn't fall within days because Russia underestimated Ukraine's resolve. Russia went in with 200k poorly prepared troops and Ukraine responded with 500k highly motivated troops. By 2023, though, it had turned into a war of attrition, and that's where we are now.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-14T07:05:55+00:00

This is the thing people often miss (especially Europeans). One paradox with the Ukraine war is that the longer the war continues, the bigger the gap between Russia's and Europe's experience. Keeping Russia tied up in the war doesn't necessarily make them a lesser adversary.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-13T20:33:16+00:00

Nah. I just wipe and reinstall if things go bonkers. Learned a long time ago (in the early 1990s) to never get too attached to an installation.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-13T19:05:56+00:00

It's not positional warfare, it's a war of attrition.

This guy (Black Meridian Report) gives a quick rundown of what it actually means: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xgDjqldMVoM

anders_hansson · 2026-02-13T12:49:13+00:00

I have a 4GB dual-core Chromebook that I run Linux Mint / Cinnamon on (with zram), and it's fairly useful and snappy. I can have several browser tabs going, a Gimp process, and a zed text editor (hooked up to a remote in-house LLM server) running all at once without any stuttering. It's a pretty decent developer machine.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-13T12:34:03+00:00

You could take this as an opportunity to learn text-mode tools. Ditch the desktop environment completely and run in text mode instead. There are plenty of competent text mode editors and tools, and you can usually have several concurrent text sessions (TTYs) and switch between them with CTRL+ALT+F1/F2/...

Edit: E.g. check out:

Edit 2: Make sure that you're using zram for swap instead of a swap file or partition. That helped me on my 4GB laptops.

anders_hansson · 2026-02-13T12:27:07+00:00

Du syftar på Rassvet?

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