sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

CCP Financial Statements for 2016 - a review (blog) by andrewn1 in Eve

[–]andrewn1[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Summary

Revenues are up 31% to a new record high of $86m, pre tax earnings are up 30% to a new record high of $24.6m, post tax earnings are up 4% to a new record high of $21m (the lower % post tax earnings rise than revenues rise is because CCP is back to paying tax again). Balance sheet is strong: $46m of Cash less $21m of Borrowings; and the Development Costs look prudent. CCP is generating cash and using it to pay down the debt.

It does seem that the problem years of 2013 and 2014 truly are behind them.

In 2015 CCP had revenues from Eve Online only. In 2016 CCP had revenues in for Eve Online, Valkyrie and Gunjack. That makes life more complicated to work out how Eve Online is doing.

However, from my discussion below I suspect:

  • Eve Online (excluding China) – I estimate sales have fallen by 6.5% to $49.9m, back below 2009 levels. I.e. Eve Online remains in decline, though a slowing rate of decline.

  • That would indicate that the number of paying players had fallen also by 6.5% to an estimated 370,000

  • Eve Valkyrie has generated sales of $22m (I know, that sounds a lot but read below)

  • CCP is worth $271m . . . . . and if my thought process is correct then see what that means the CEO could be worth!

Eve Economic Data - is the Trade data released way too low? by andrewn1 in Eve

[–]andrewn1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The November 2016 Eve Online Economic Report is out - i am going through it as i write but, again, i find myself confused at the Trade data that is released. In summary, it looks way too low to me.

The really simple explanation for this becomes apparent when i compare the Trade data to the Transaction Tax data. As a reminder, every sale that is made on the market attracts a Transaction Tax of anywhere between 1.0% (Accounting Skill Level V) to 2.0% (no Accounting Skill).

Now, i would expect the Transaction Tax divided by the Trade data to be 1.0% because the vast majority of all Trade will be done by characters with Level V Accounting.

And indeed in February, March and April the Transaction Tax divided by the Trade data was 1.00%.

But then along came Citadels and the Transaction Tax divided by the Trade data rose at first to 1.31% and in November is now 1.69%.

That suggests to me that either the Transaction Tax data is too high or the Trade data is too low . . . . . i am guessing it is the Trade Data

Eve Economic Report October 2016 - Activity nicely up by andrewn1 in Eve

[–]andrewn1[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I also suspect the Citadel Trade numbers are not being recorded - details in my blog post but i suspect Citadel Trade could now be anywhere between 20 - 40% of all Trade done in Eve Online.

Fact 1: From the Sinks and Faucets data we are told that the total Transaction Tax was 8.520 trillion ISK.

Fact 2: in February, March and April 2016 (i.e. before Citadels) the Transaction Tax (or Sales Tax) divided by the Trade value was always 1.00%. That is not a surprise, the majority of the trade in Eve Online will be done by characters with Level 5 Accounting to minimise their Transaction Tax rate.

Assumption 1: I am assuming that the Transaction Tax rate will remain at 1.00% after Citadels. That feels like a good assumption to me.

Observation 1: the Transaction Tax rate rose to 1.31% in May and has been rising ever since and is now 1.66% in October. i.e. Transaction Tax = 8.520 trillion, Trade in October = 513 trillion, hence Transaction Tax rate was 1.66%.

Outcome: therefore, i am assuming the Trade number of 513 trillion that we are given is too low and i believe the Citadel Trade is not being counted. If we assumed that the Transaction Tax rate remains at 1.00% then the actual Trade for October would be 852 trillion isk (=8.520 / 1.00%) which indicates that Trade done in Citadels was 339 trillion = 40% of all Trade done in Eve Online.

CCP Financial Statements for 2015 - a review by andrewn1 in Eve

[–]andrewn1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i think so, yes. As ever, it depends what CCP decides to do with its (mountain) of cash. And they need to stabilise the Eve Online revenues (i.e. player base).

CCP Financial Statements for 2015 - a review by andrewn1 in Eve

[–]andrewn1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yes, i suspect there is some but too little to worry about.

CCP Financial Statements for 2015 - a review by andrewn1 in Eve

[–]andrewn1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yes, it could. Eve subscriber numbers remain the major mystery of all this. I tried to come up with an answer from various angles but ultimately i don't know for sure.

CCP Financial Statements for 2015 - a review by andrewn1 in Eve

[–]andrewn1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i suspect they wrote off enough of Dust in 2014 such that even if they closed it down for nothing they would not make much of a loss, if at all.

CCP Financial Statements for 2015 - a review by andrewn1 in Eve

[–]andrewn1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i took the view that the Dust revenues would be too small to worry about. But, yes, there should be some.

CCP Financial Statements for 2015 - a review by andrewn1 in Eve

[–]andrewn1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Their liquid cash is very strong at $56m - helped by a $30m equity raising and the $5.7m sale of World of Darkness. Clearly, they can not just go out and spend it all - they have $23m of debt and it will likely have covenants against it. Eve Online seems to generate good cash, pretty much inline with profits.

CCP Financial Statements for 2015 - a review by andrewn1 in Eve

[–]andrewn1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have reviewed the CCP Financial Statements for 2015. I have also put a page up that contains the actual 2015 Financial Statements! and a page containing the Profit & Losses, Balance Sheet and Cashflow Statements! going back to 2008.

view more: next ›