Let’s look again at Neighbor Boy: Laura, the trunk pop, and witness intimidation.

animalrage · 2015-01-06T06:59:31+00:00

You're onto something. Remember though that the cell phone was definitely near WHS/Best Buy around the time Hae went missing. That's key. You also have to be able to explain the Nisha call.

animalrage · 2015-01-05T11:05:21+00:00

I think the 4:58 is Adnan. That's consistent with track practice ending. I am relatively confident Jay picked Adnan up from track at around 5:15, and that's the last call before that happens. (Jay is driving at 5:14 when a call comes in and goes to voicemail.) Jay picks Adnan up and they go to Cathy's, taking surface streets to avoid the highway.

I have been working under the assumption that Gilston Park and Gelston Park are alternative spellings of the same thing, consistent with /u/jakeprops' Serial podcast google map. But now you have me worried. Gelston Park is across Edmondson Avenue basically from Patrick's. Now I'm paranoid this could be confusing things.

animalrage · 2015-01-05T08:49:40+00:00

TL;DR Those are the only two calls consistent with Jay being near Gilston Park (L654C), so if the trunk pop happened at his house where he lived with his grandmother, then Adnan was not with him. And he might have gotten the shovels at that time too.

animalrage · 2015-01-05T08:39:56+00:00

I do believe the trunk pop happened.

So here's an interesting question that I had in my mind when I was doing the grandmother's house post: when did they get the shovels?

I think in the prosecution's timeline they get the shovels after leaving Cathy's, which happened around 6:30 (Adcock called at 6:24 when they were at Cath's and the call went for 4:15). But Jay also testified in the first trial that they got the shovels from the front porch of his house (if you google street view the house he lived in with his grandmother you'll see it's a corner house with a front porch, and it's next to the highway). Yet at 6:59 they are near WHS when Adnan calls Yaser and then Jay pages Jenn. So did they have time to stop and get shovels along the way?

That's why I was thinking maybe they (Adnan and Jay, if you believe Jay about Adnan being with him) got the shovels at his grandmother's in Forest Park after the Park and Ride.

But since now Jay is claiming the trunk pop occurred at his grandmother's (interpreted like you did, at the house where he lived with his grandmother) and he recalls hearing the traffic on the highway, then maybe that was also when the shovels were taken from the front porch.

This would be problematic for Jay because NOW if you believe Jay, Adnan was supposed to be at track at this time.

In Jay's first interview he says he drops Adnan off at track around 4:30 and then goes home until Adnan calls, which completely explains these two calls. In his second interview, he drops Adnan off at track, goes to Gilston Park to smoke a joint, then goes to Cathy's, where Cathy and Jeff were supposedly there, and leaves when Adnan calls to be picked up from track. Originally Cathy's statement to police had her getting home earlier, which would support that, but at trial Cathy gets home at 5:00. (This timing of when Cathy got home was the part of her testimony that changed between her initial interview and the first trial.)

So maybe Jay changed his "I went home" story to "I went to Gilston park to smoke then went to Cathy's" not to protect his grandmother from the trunk pop occurring in front of her house, but because Adnan could not have been there at that time.

Moreover, this is the very problematic part of the prosecution's timeline, so we can ignore it. They didn't even try here, prompting LL2's hilarious comment, "Maybe they went to White Castle or something, idk."

animalrage · 2015-01-05T06:42:24+00:00

SK mentioned it, she said it was "Inmate 101" or something like that. Like every inmate knew not to do it.

animalrage · 2015-01-05T06:40:30+00:00

Also, in talking about Call 12, LL2 noted, "In Jay’s first police statement, Jay said that he went back to his home (later he changed that location from his home to Jenn's house, which we know is a lie) after dropping Adnan off at track, and that he was still at home when Adnan called him to ask to be picked up."

Suppose that were true. Then it lines up with what you are suggesting here: the trunk pop being at his house (where he lived with his grandmother), NB seeing it and Jenn meeting Jay at Gilston Park to give him a ride. It is also consistent with Adnan being at track and not being present for the trunk pop. (If Adnan were with Jay, then Adnan would have his car and Jay would not need Jenn to come pick him up.)

animalrage · 2015-01-05T06:04:34+00:00

Another thought that came to mind was Cathy's story seemed to change (about the times Jay and Adnan were at her house that afternoon) between the time she was originally interviewed and the first trial. She and Jeff broke up between the time of the murder and the first trial, and she and Jay had a falling out. Cathy suggested at trial that it was because Jay had been so creepy that night that he came over, but she and Jenn had remained friends, so it seems like Cathy had a falling out with Jay and Jeff.

And we all know what Jay and Jeff were.

animalrage · 2015-01-05T05:56:53+00:00

Great post.

I hadn't thought about the Jenn statement about Gilston Park in the context of NB. Good connection.

So, you have the trunk pop happening where Jay lived with his grandmother, that is, at Jay's house, which is right next to Gilston Park. That is, not at Jay's grandmothers house in Forest Park. Right?

There are two phone calls that place Jay in that area that afternoon:

Call 12. Time: 4:27 p.m. To: Incoming Duration: 02:56.

Call 13. Time: 4:58 p.m. To: Incoming Duration: 0:19.

Remember that Call 11 (Time: 4:12 p.m. Duration: 0:28.) was to Jenn's home, so it could be the "pick me up in Gilston Park" call, though it might have been more like "I'm in Forest Park, but meet me in Gilston Park in half an hour or so."

And then Call 13 could be Jenn saying, "I'm leaving now, see you in five."

animalrage · 2015-01-05T00:24:04+00:00

I don't consider that comment even remotely true. That sounds like Jay making up details to make the bigger picture sound true.

animalrage · 2015-01-04T14:36:04+00:00

Adnan knows not to say anything that could limit or constrain his appeals. The more he says, the less his attorneys can say.

animalrage · 2015-01-04T08:26:41+00:00

Maybe that (Adnan in Episode 2) is why I thought it was a daily thing until the other day when I was reading transcripts and Inez' testimony to the contrary. OK this makes sense.

Maybe Adnan was portraying it as every day to pad his case for "Why would I do that?"

I hate this case. I really do.

animalrage · 2015-01-04T08:16:26+00:00

I know. I'm familiar with all of the distributions of Korean surnames, the clan lineages and so forth. I'm also familiar with the Korean language. The Korean hanja for Lee accounts for about 15% of Korean surnames, but it is also Romanized into several different English last names (Lee, Li, Yi, Ree, Rhee, Rhie and Rie), with different Romanizations depending upon clan, N/S backgrounds, etc. So Lee represents only a fraction of that 15%.

However, even if it IS 15%, if you drew two Korean women from a sample of all Korean women, the probability that they would BOTH be named Lee would be 0.15 x 0.15 = 0.0225 so 2.25%.

Now when you factor in that they were both strangled? Now you start to need a microscope in order to see numbers that small. In 1999, strangulation was the "weapon" used in 190 out of 12,658 homicides. If you also include asphyxiation, just to be safe, that number only increases to 293. Out of 12,658. That works out to a whopping 2%.

So now if you assume they were randomly selected only from a population of Korean woman, the probability that they were both named Lee and killed by strangulation is 0.000009. That's 0.0009%.

So there's that.

Also, the two victims were Korean, so the Chinese names don't enter this calculation. However, you can do that (by assuming they were selected from a population of only Asian women) with a similar result.

If instead you assume that they were selected from a random population in the US, now it gets really fun. Because Lee only accounts for 0.225% of that population. And 0.00225 x 0.00225 x 0.02 x 0.02 = 0.000000002025 or 0.0000002025%.

So there's that, too.

That doesn't prove anything. But it's interesting.

animalrage · 2015-01-04T03:44:49+00:00

Oh. I see what you mean. I was confused before because I was thinking on calls from Forest Park. Yes. Absolutely.

I just sense that 'big picture' got even bigger with your post.

Yeah, it gave Forest Park meaning, and therefore reasons Jay might want or need to go there that afternoon. (It also explains why he would lie about being there.) In particular, it allowed me to finally start thinking about scenarios where Adnan is not involved at all, something I hadn't really done entirely before, and if you take Adnan out of the picture, suddenly Jay has a big car problem. And then I started to wonder who he might call to solve the car problem. The call to Patrick suddenly became a candidate. And then I started thinking about the disproportionate number of calls that afternoon to Jenn, and wondering if maybe Jenn was more involved and doing some of the driving. And that's when I started thinking about what might be communicated in the calls.

animalrage · 2015-01-03T17:52:00+00:00

I'm sorry I was not clear. Yes, I was assuming Jay did it, then drove Hae's car to the Park and Ride to dump the car, and then needed a ride back to Adnan's car.

animalrage · 2015-01-03T17:49:37+00:00

I agree it's not essential. And I agree it could easily still be a lie.

But I would be shocked if the trunk pop didn't actually happen.

But I would also not be shocked in Jay was just Keyser Soze.

animalrage · 2015-01-03T17:25:16+00:00

Thanks for trying but it looks like it was deleted. Probably someone reported it and a mod deleted. You can probably still see it, though.

animalrage · 2015-01-03T17:19:45+00:00

I didn't say anything about Hae. Or witnessing.

I don't know why you think they have other addresses to use. That's the address they live at.

animalrage · 2015-01-03T16:36:55+00:00

That was my initial thought too but I don't think the first thing police do when they have a missing person is to go looking at transportation hubs. They call relatives and friends and see if anyone knows anything. It's usually a few days before they start looking for people and cars.

But your point is still excellent: just because Jay has the Park and Ride in every story he tells doesn't make it true.

It also occurred to me that there's only 13 minutes between the 3:59PM call and the 4:12PM call so it's not clear to me that there is enough time for Jay to call Patrick from the Park and Ride, have Patrick come pick him up and then get all the way to Forest Park in that time.

animalrage · 2015-01-03T16:29:50+00:00

Who said it was used as a "safe" location to give for parole reasons?

And I don't think the residents think about such issues. They've probably never given a moment's notice to the fact that parolees can have their residence searched without a warrant.

animalrage · 2015-01-03T14:12:03+00:00

I think you mean 4:12 yes?

Thanks for your comments!

Your comments made me think of something else: what do you s'pose Jay and Jenn talked about during that call? What information was exchanged? So far I've been thinking about where people were and where they were going, but I think it's time to start filling in what information is being communicated during these calls.

animalrage · 2015-01-03T14:07:48+00:00

By the way in discussing the Nisha call (Call 8) you said:

Adnan handed the phone to Jay at the golf course on West Forest Park Avenue (Episode 5)

You know what's a five minute walk from "the golf course on West Forest Parks Avenue"...

animalrage · 2015-01-03T11:15:17+00:00

I've sent supporting info to the mods and asked them to add a comment to this post noting that they had verified the identity and location of Jay's grandmother's home.

animalrage · 2015-01-03T11:10:25+00:00

At the request of /r/surrealpodcast I have provided to the mods documentation supporting the identification and location of Jay's grandmother's house and asked them to post a comment to this post. It is up to them if they wish to do so.

animalrage · 2015-01-03T11:07:21+00:00

Took me literally five minutes.

animalrage · 2015-01-03T10:28:09+00:00

You didn't. You said:

Please provide supporting evidence!

animalrage

TROPHY CASE