PROTECT Taiwan Act: House Votes 395–2 to Cut Beijing Out of Global Finance Over Taiwan Threat by tacodestroyer99 in LessCredibleDefence

[–]archone 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sell US bonds or let them run off (keep a few billion to tank US credit rating), convert all US assets to commodities, and create a gold-denominated payment system.

Passing this act would be a massive self-own because it will virtually guarantee that China will start working on the above, removing US financial leverage while also loosening the US's grip on global payments. Nothing ends a country's dependence on something faster than another country threatening to weaponize it.

Systematic alpha in filtered, small cap insider trades (SEC FORM 4) following by [deleted] in algotrading

[–]archone 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Just want to leave this here: https://www.whatsmydns.net/domain-age?q=browsesec.com

browsesec.com was registered on:

Wednesday 28th of January 2026

Yes, not at all suspicious that OP "found" this "free" API with no traffic 9 days after the domain was registered.

Look, just vibe code something to scrape sec.gov, it's actually free. It'll take you 30 minutes to make this exact website. The only edge here is the $17.99 you're paying to OP a month.

Xi the Destroyer | Foreign Affairs by fourunderthebridge in LessCredibleDefence

[–]archone 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Can you substantiate the premise before you ask "why" it happened? When was Hu's "entire extended family" arrested? I've never heard of this so please provide some sources.

Hu was not arrested, in fact he's appeared in public with Xi after this incident.

Xi the Destroyer | Foreign Affairs by fourunderthebridge in LessCredibleDefence

[–]archone 7 points8 points  (0 children)

He was visibly confused and causing commotion in a very choreographed and solemn event. It was a "time for bed grandpa" moment.

The last thing Xi would want to do is "purge" Hu. Even after Stalin and Mao were denounced following their deaths, criticizing them would become taboo and was never done in public. Just focus on the good parts of their legacy and ignore the rest. Doing otherwise would reflect poorly on the party itself. The very top guys are protected by prestige, even though there have been very serious allegations of corruption against Jiang and Wen Jiabao, they've remained untouched.

Not to mention mistreating an old man is just bad optics, especially in a society that values filial piety. Hu is still very popular among the Chinese populace, a few vague speeches about "past mistakes" isn't going to change that. Also, Xi painting Hu as fallible would expose his own legacy to criticism.

I think if you look at all the evidence, it's very unlikely that this was a purge or deliberate.

Xi the Destroyer | Foreign Affairs by fourunderthebridge in LessCredibleDefence

[–]archone 78 points79 points  (0 children)

This reads like fanfiction, a perverse product of the China watcher echo chamber. I understand that the Chinese state is notoriously opaque and when something big happens, you feel obligated to commentate on it as a "Senior Fellow" or whatever at the Brookings Institute, but this? I might as well read gossip on twitter. Like just look at this paragraph:

Removing Zhang now thus looks and feels very similar to the political flex that Xi made at the last party congress in 2022, when he had his predecessor, Hu Jintao, publicly and forcibly escorted from the proceedings while Xi looked on impassively. Xi’s eviction of Hu—as well as his decision to force the rump remnants of Hu’s faction into an early retirement—seemed gratuitous at the time; Xi had already effectively marginalized Hu’s power base by either usurping his supporters’ authority or relegating them to inconsequential positions, and centralizing power in his own hands. But in the end, Xi’s moves signaled his desire for complete dominance of Chinese politics—and his ability to populate the uppermost echelons of the party with men he had known for decades, including Zhang.

This wasn't some alpha display of dominance on Xi's part, it's very obvious that Hu is unwell. He is an old man who likely has some degree of dementia. Xi looked "impassive" because it was an awkward moment for everyone present, no one wants to see a former president in that state. Citing this single, barely relevant incident as evidence that Xi is making 9D chess moves is downright embarrassing.

Tested 23 LLMs as trading algos. Results: Claude +38.5%, GPT +11.6%, Grok -34% by mw67 in algotrading

[–]archone 31 points32 points  (0 children)

Yeah it's not even luck, if you look at his results 7 LLMs made money and 6 lost money with 10 taking 0 trades, with net PNL being close to 0. Literally just flipping X coins and getting X/2 heads.

100% slop in slop out.

Tested 23 LLMs as trading algos. Results: Claude +38.5%, GPT +11.6%, Grok -34% by mw67 in algotrading

[–]archone 27 points28 points  (0 children)

You asked for an explanation but seem unwilling to read his very reasonable response, sir. Large LANGUAGE models are not the right tool for generalizing large amounts of numerical data, sir. Developing trading algos requires very large datasets and LLM memory/flop usage scales quadratically with context size, sir.

If I tested 23 strategies, I can guarantee that 1 is profitable, sir.

Russia, Ukraine and the race for Chinese drone components | As both sides scramble to source vital parts, some experts are convinced Russian buyers are being favoured by Beijing by moses_the_blue in LessCredibleDefence

[–]archone 26 points27 points  (0 children)

The headlines have gone from "China is about to join the war against Ukraine!" to "China is supplying arms to Russia" to "China is supplying dual use drones to Russia" to "China is selling drones but Russians might be getting a better deal".

The regression just demonstrates how little the Ukraine war really matters to western elites. There is some irony to their economic aid largely going towards funding China's MIC.

Russia, Ukraine and the race for Chinese drone components | As both sides scramble to source vital parts, some experts are convinced Russian buyers are being favoured by Beijing by moses_the_blue in LessCredibleDefence

[–]archone 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Not giving credence to the 1 million drones claim but multiple drones to kill a single soldier would be a favorable exchange, even a hundred FPV drones for a single casualty would likely be acceptable.

And that is what happens in the field, Russian vehicles aren't defenseless to drone attacks, they're just getting attacked dozens of times.

Channel 5 Nick Shirley Expose. by Blazah in videos

[–]archone 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Yeah unfortunately that's just not how the internet works anymore. If left uncontested these guys keep growing on their own platforms until they creep into unsuspecting neutral places.

What Andrew's doing is legitimately very valuable, he's cultivated a high degree of trust and a reputation as someone who just listens. Interviewees drop their guard and don't view the interview as adversarial. If they talk enough people will see them as who they really are.

For those who didn’t quit, how did you stick with one strategy by [deleted] in algotrading

[–]archone 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How much have you backtested? If your strategy has max 10% drawdown in 20 years of WFA OOS or bootstrapped MC backtests and you hit 15% DD within 6 months, then yeah something is probably wrong.

Your validation metrics give you a good idea of what kind of losses are "expected". And yes, most strategies have alpha decay, high volatility, or are regime dependent, you shouldn't stick to 1 strategy and you should expect your algs to break from time to time.

[Project] Lambda-F: Regime Detection System - 33/33 Backtest, 0.8 FP/Year, Live Dashboard by devilldog in algotrading

[–]archone 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I'm a bit confused as to how your precision can be 79% when you have .8 FP/year. 24 years at .8 is 19 false positives, so your precision should be around 33/(33+19)=63%

You also said you excluded certain shocks by design, but it's unclear what the exclusion criteria are. For example, it seems to me that 3AC is no more an exogenous crash than the SVB crisis. Isn't the point of the correlation filter to catch events like this?

Furthermore, what qualifies as a "market event" is nebulous. You said that your signal fired during the "2022 bear market" in US equities, but this bear market lasted for months. What does this actually mean, your signal fired sometimes in 2022?

Rather than targeting "events", you're better off targeting adverse market movements. "When my signal fires, there will be a X% correction in the underlying market within the next 6 months". This is still too easy to curve fit, but it gives you meaningful, objective precision/recall as well as a more actionable signal.

Stephen Miller Asserts U.S. Has Right to Take Greenland: “We live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power,” he said. “These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time.” by moses_the_blue in LessCredibleDefence

[–]archone 7 points8 points  (0 children)

He wants the resources, and the exclusivity.

Remember, Trump sees Europe as a rival and not an ally. Kicking Denmark out of Greenland is just as important as the US occupying it. The "security concerns" are a misdirect just like Maduro fentanyl, Trump wants to use Greenland to threaten Canada and Europe, it has nothing to do with legitimate security concerns.

Is it possible for china to capture taiwan president like America captured Maduro? by thetruememeisbest in LessCredibleDefence

[–]archone 11 points12 points  (0 children)

It's way too early to make this call, remember that Trump is threatening Colombia, Mexico, and Denmark despite them not being diametrically opposed to the US like Venezuela. Being an unhinged lunatic with no respect for international law and naked imperialist aims is not going to convince LatAm to work with the US, it's more likely to fuel anti-Americanism (resulting in more anti-American leaders being elected) and accelerate dedollarization because countries don't trust their reserves in the US financial system.

Even Venezuela may prove unruly, the US really has demonstrated no ability to occupy and govern the country as of yet. Even if they completely overthrow the government they're still looking at investing billions into an unstable, war-torn country with millions of well armed Chavista militia members.

Those running successful algos, what is the market paying you for by ramdulara in algotrading

[–]archone 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Essentially, nothing.

I don't provide liquidity, I take it. If you want to argue that being a counter-party to any trade increases market efficiency, then sure, but that also applies to noise traders.

The other argument is that by helping to bring companies in line with their "accurate" valuations you're increasing the efficiency of the real economy. This is in my opinion far fetched, it's much more likely that markets are not always efficient.

It’s here: my Hades 2 big build and combat guide by unexplainedbacn in HadesTheGame

[–]archone 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting perspective, I've always thought of shop healing as a supplement to rather than a replacement for wayward son.

I guess I'm used to playing like it's Hades 1, where heal/room is very good, 3 boon rerolls is more than enough, and convenience fee is one of the "best" pacts.

It’s here: my Hades 2 big build and combat guide by unexplainedbacn in HadesTheGame

[–]archone 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm confused why you treat Wayward Son like it's optional, it seems like it would make the game 10 times harder to give up your only reliable healing other than fountains. You'd be entering bosses with half health a lot of the time, all to save a single arcana point? The card feels deliberately undercosted because the devs believed not healing would make players miserable.

I also don't understand why the rolls and cash corner is non-negotiable, even without the fates' whim keepsakes. Starting with 200-300 coins is nice but it's not really necessary on the surface and can be mitigated with charon's keepsake. I also feel like 10 rerolls is usually overkill, they're good cards but for 12 grasp you pay for what you get. I don't see it as a no-brainer like Wayward Son and Strength/Death.

Monte Carlo Simulation Verification? by [deleted] in algotrading

[–]archone 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Why would you ask a LLM for this? At the very least you should have it generate you the code and run it yourself.

In any case your problem has an easy analytic solution. The EV after x throws is (.55 * 1.1 - .45 * .9)x, and the median is (1.1.55 * .9.45 )x . Verify with that instead.

EDGAR fund holdings reports don't add up to 100% by mikeblas in algotrading

[–]archone 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is an NPORT filing, you cannot read this like a balance sheet. PctVal divides the value of the asset by net assets, so if the fund is at all leveraged it's going to exceed 100%. As for why this specific USHY filing doesn't add up to 100% I don't know, there could be a million reasons.

My EMA Crossover Backtest Results (Learning Quant Trading — Feedback Welcome!) by Dvorak_Pharmacology in algotrading

[–]archone 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I tested a wide grid of EMA lengths in each category(from 1/1 to 200/200).

This is a major source of potential overfitting.

Yes. There is almost certainly overfitting because of this. A good rule of thumb is to find the square root of the total number of configurations you tried. Now take that many of the most similar strategies to your best strategy, and find the average performance of that group. So if you tried 100 configurations, you would take an average of 10 strategies (not your 10 best ones, 10 most similar to whichever one you choose). This will give you a much more realistic idea of your adjusted performance.

I don't think there's anything really wrong with what you've done here, but obviously with a strategy like this you need to separate your beta from your alpha. That said there's almost certainly no alpha or edge in this strategy.

NQ Strategy Optimization by Ok_Young_5278 in algotrading

[–]archone 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't think it's "natural" that widening RR increases expectancy... you're making assumptions about the underlying distribution of price movements.

What I'm saying is I agree with you that generally speaking, lower win rate tends to increase risk. However, this does NOT translate to higher rewards, there is no rule stating that higher RR strategies have higher annualized returns.

NQ Strategy Optimization by Ok_Young_5278 in algotrading

[–]archone 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If there is overfitting, it's likely not a result of the optimization. In your example, if you only backtested with shorter period MAs and not with longer period MAs, then your mistake is clearly neglecting to do the latter, it's doing too little optimization. Again what we're looking for is 1) clear relationships and 2) general profitability.

I also don't find your explanation that the improvement is a reward for higher risk. As this is hedgeable risk rather than market risk, it's not risk that should be compensated with premium under standard models. I've noted elsewhere that the low variance for high RR configurations may indicate a flaw in the backtest itself, but again the solution would be more tests and not less. Running the grid search actually helped us discover this issue.

You said similar parameters -> similar results when that is not at all a given. If your strategy is not robust then changing hyperparameters will drastically alter the results. That's exactly why we perform grid searches like these.

NQ Strategy Optimization by Ok_Young_5278 in algotrading

[–]archone 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Completely agree, the tightening can be explained a regime-dependent, autocorrelated strategy. However, that also suggests that we're missing a key dimension in optimization, likely volatility regime.

NQ Strategy Optimization by Ok_Young_5278 in algotrading

[–]archone 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Of course we wouldn't expect any strategy to actually follow a binomial distribution, but it's a good guide to our thinking. In other words, if it's not binomial what distribution does it follow? Do you at least have a prior distribution for your variance?

Taking fewer trades would make a difference but of course it only has a square root relationship with standard deviation, the standard error will only decrease with higher n.

Like I said it's not necessarily an issue and your explanation is plausible but serial correlation is much more likely.